Milling & Baking News - March 9, 2010 - 56



 Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard
red winter wheat in Kansas City were
unchanged to 11c a bu higher last week.
Only wheat with protein from 12.4%
through 12.8% was unchanged. Export
demand underpinned the basis for ordinary wheat and other low-protein
supply. A Commodity Credit Corp. purchase of 73,290 tonnes of ordinary hard
winter wheat for donation to Ethiopia
was a factor. Mill demand supported the
basis further up the protein scale. While
mills were receiving applications against
March wheat contracts, gaps in nearby
coverage left by an extended period during which railroads were running behind schedules needed to be filled.
The basis across the top third of the
protein scale was raised on bids, as mills
and resellers sought to uncover supplies
still in producers' or elevators' hands.
Offers of high-protein hard winter were
scarce with many areas known for high
protein already having liquidated what
supply they owned.
Farmer selling of wheat increased
whenever wheat futures prices advanced.
The Kansas field office of the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated the condition of the state's winter wheat at the
end of February at 53% good to excellent, 35% fair and 12% poor to very poor,
down slightly from the end of January.
Four per cent of the Kansas crop was
breaking dormancy, mainly in the southwest and south central districts. Oklahoma winter wheat was rated 60% good
to excellent, 29% fair and 11% poor to
very poor, down slightly from a month
earlier. The Texas wheat crop was rated
46% good to excellent, 36% fair and 18%
poor to very poor.
An end to a long, cold winter seemed
to be in sight. It was thought the hard
winter wheat crop fared well, and

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City May, cents per bu
March 5 - Change from - Year
Premium Feb. 26 Feb. 19
ago
Ordinary -26 @ -11 +2 @ +2 +7 @ +7 24 @ 39
11%
-11 @ 4 +7 @ +7 +7 @ +7 32 @ 47
11.2%
-1 @ 14 +10 @ +10+10 @ +10 36 @ 51
11.4%
22 @ 37 +5 @ +5 +3 @ +3 42 @ 57
11.6%
22 @ 37 +1 @ +1 -4 @ -4 57 @ 72
11.8%
24 @ 39 +2 @ +2 -2 @ -2 75 @ 90
12%
29 @ 44 +2 @ +2 +2 @ +2 76 @ 91
12.2%
31 @ 46 +2 @ +2 +3 @ +3 78 @ 93
12.4%
33 @ 48
-
+3 @ +3 78 @ 93
12.6%
36 @ 51
-
-
80 @ 95
12.8%
36 @ 51
-
-
80 @ 95
13%
53 @ 68 +4 @ +4 +9 @ +9 80 @ 95
13.2%
55 @ 70 +6 @ +6 +11 @ +11 80 @ 95
13.4%
58 @ 73 +9 @ +9 +14 @ +14 93 @ 108
13.6%
65 @ 80 +11 @ +11+11 @ +11105 @ 120
13.8%
65 @ 80 +11 @ +11+11 @ +11110 @ 125
14%
65 @ 80 +11 @ +11+11 @ +11115 @ 130
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winterkill might prove to be minimal.
Moisture conditions should be generous
across the region and provide conditions
for a good start to the growing season.
A meteorologist addressing members
of the Kansas City Board of Trade forecast the return of an active weather pattern after a relatively calm week across
northern sections of the hard winter
wheat belt. Temperatures were expected
to remain below average and precipitation above average through March and
into April-May. The pattern suggested
there was possibility for a freeze in April.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard
red spring wheat (reflecting Chicago/
beyond values in relation to the Minneapolis May wheat future) were 50c a bu
higher to 20c lower last week. The spring
wheat basis has been under pressure for
the past few weeks, even allowing for
occasional spikes. Railroads struggled
to catch up with shipping schedules, but
many mills were receiving applications
against March wheat contracts. Farmer
selling increased when wheat prices advanced, but producers retreated when
prices declined.
There was value in protein. Wheat
with 15% protein was quoted $1.65 a bu
higher than 14% protein, and 14%-protein wheat was quoted $1.80 higher
than 13% protein. The frequent narrowing and widening of premium ranges at
individual protein levels reflected not
only valuation of protein gradations
within a specific protein range but wide

No. 1 hard spring

variation in quality of wheat offered
with select origins, mostly in North
Dakota, able to provide wheat whose
flour produced dough with good stability, while other origins provided wheat
whose flour produced dough with relatively poor stability.
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat were firm. In Kansas City, No. 1
soft red bids were raised 1c, to 60c under K.C. May to 50c over. Wide spread
in bids reflected variation in quality
because of widespread sprouting and
vomitoxin in the 2009 soft red wheat
crop. Gulf bids on soft red for nearby
declined 2c, to 30c over Chicago May. St.
Louis mill bids were 15c over Chicago
May. Chicago mill bids were 25c under
Chicago May. Mill bids in Toledo for
nearby were 55c under Chicago May;
new crop, 45c under July. Elevator bids
were 59c under May; new crop, 55c under July. Cincinnati mill bids were 40c
under Chicago May. Elevator bids were
45c under May; new crop, 38c under
July. Michigan white wheat mill bids
were 65c over Chicago May.
The U.S.D.A. field office in Illinois rated the state's wheat condition at the end
of February at 28% good to excellent,
49% fair and 23% poor to very poor. Ratings in other reporting states were similarly uninspiring. Georgia wheat at the
end of February was 23% good to excellent, 50% fair and 28% poor to very poor.
North Carolina wheat was 17% good,
36% fair and 47% poor to very poor. MBN

Cash wheat

Basis Minneapolis May, delivered Chicago\beyond cents
per bu
March 5
- Change from -
Year
Premium Feb. 26
Feb. 19
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
-20 @ 0
-20 @ 0
-2 @ -2
...
13%
10 @ 25 -10 @ -5
-27 @ -12
...
13.5%
70 @ 90
-5 @ 0
-22 @ -2
...
14%
165 @ 205 -15 @ +15 -22 @ -22
...
14.5%
250 @ 280 +20 @ +50 -17 @ -17
...
15%
360 @ 370 +20 @ -5
-27 @ -17
...
16%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
March 5
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
March
+65 May
...
April
+64 May
...
May
+64 May
...
June
+52 July
62
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
March
+30 May
45
April
+35 May
45
May
+35 May
50
June
+23 July
30

Ingredient Week

Year ago
bid

+82
+82
+82
+75

May
May
May
July

-13
-10
-10
-10

May
May
May
July

March 5 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid
Feb. 26 Feb. 19
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
March
...
...
...
April
...
...
...
May
4.80
-
-.05
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
March
...
...
...
April
0.37
+.02
+.02
May
0.40
+.03
+.03
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
March
1.65
+.05
+.05
April
1.70
+.05
+.05
May
1.75
+.10
+.10

Year
ago
5.55
5.55
5.55
0.40
0.50
0.45

1.75
1.75
1.75

Canadian domestic milling wheat
Change from Year
In-store, Thunder Bay,
March 5
Feb. 26
ago
Canadian $ per tonne
Western red spring 13.5% 250.29 -12.42
351.17
Soft white spring
211.65
-6.87
285.94
Amber durum
226.77
-7.22
420.64
U.S. $ per bu
Western red spring 13.5%
6.62
-0.18
7.43
Soft white spring
5.60
-0.05
6.05
Amber durum
6.00
-0.05
8.90
Milling & Baking News March 9, 2010 / 49
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Milling & Baking News - March 9, 2010

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