Milling & Baking News - March 23, 2010 - 49

Exports and Trade Issues 

World flour exports forecast to
set another record as wheat slips
LONDON - Even as prospects for
global export trade in wheat and
flour combined in the 2009-10 season pointed to a drop of 11.6% from
the prior season, shipments of wheat
flour alone were projected to set a
new record for the third year in a
row. According to the latest forecast
of the International Grains Council,
for the crop year ending this June,
world trade in wheat flour, including durum semolina, will rise 3% to
a new peak of 12,850,000 tonnes of
wheat equivalent. Global flour trade
first surpassed 12 million tonnes in
2007-08, with a total of 12,037,000
tonnes. The global volume reached
12,480,000 tonnes in 2008-09.
Three years of new records in
world flour trade reflected a dramatic change from the final decades
of the 20th century when global flour
exports showed little variation from
crop year to crop year. Particularly
impressive was the flour export record was being set in 2009-10 when
combined shipments of wheat and
wheat flour were projected to drop
to 120.2 million tonnes from the peak
of 136 million established in 2008-09.
The record prior to this was 114 million tonnes shipped in 1987-88.
The current aggregate of wheat
flour exports, equal to 206 million
cwts in terms of wheat flour, was
more than double the recent shipment low in 1985-86. In that year,
the flour trade volume dipped to
5,861,000 tonnes.
In its compilations of flour exports
and imports, the I.G.C. excludes durum semolina from data for individual countries. Thus, the Council
placed flour exports in 2009-10 at
12.6 million tonnes, to which 250,000
of durum semolina shipments were
added, to arrive at the aggregate of
12,850,000. In 2008-09, flour exports
were 12,230,000 tonnes and durum
semolina 250,000, to produce the total of 12,480,000.
Just as impressive as the new
global record in flour exporting
was the "new" exporting countries
that have arisen to prominence in
the first decade of the 21st century. Standing out in this regard was
Kazakhstan, which has ranked as
the leading flour exporter for four
straight years, beginning in 200607. For the current 2009-10 season,
Kazakhstan was forecast to ship 3
44 / March 23, 2010 Milling & Baking News

million tonnes of wheat flour (nearly 50 million cwts), up 250,000 from
the forecast previously made in October. Its shipments were up 10%
from 2,733,000 in 2008-09.
In line with its rising
shipments, Kazakhstan's
share of global flour
trade has been on
an uptrend, reaching 23.8% in 200910, against 22.3% in
2008-09 and 17.3% in
2007-08.
Ranking second as
an exporter was Turkey, with shipments
currently forecast at 2.3
million tonnes, or 18.3% of
world trade. The Turkey forecast
represented an increase of 6% over
shipments of 2,165,000 tonnes in
2008-09.
In third place as flour exporter in
2009-10 was the European Union,
with its clearances likely to be nearly the same as the prior year. The
I.G.C. projected E.U. wheat flour exports in 2009-10 at 1.4 million tonnes
of wheat equivalent, accounting for
11.1% of world trade.
The only other shipper of more
than 1 million tonnes of wheat flour
in 2009-10 was expected to be Argentina, with its outgo forecast at 1.1
million tonnes. That compared with
1,340,000 tonnes in the past season.
After these four leaders, the United Arab Emirates was forecast to
move 650,000 tonnes, the same flour
total as in 2008-09. Following were
Russia and Pakistan, forecast to ship
600,000 tonnes each. In the prior
year, Russia shipped 665,000 tonnes
and Pakistan 500,000.
China followed these countries,
with forecast shipments of 350,000
tonnes, up 64% from 214,000 in
2007-08.
This left the United States and the
Ukraine at the bottom of the list of
exporters, with each forecast to ship
300,000 tonnes of wheat flour. In the
prior year, the U.S. moved 295,000
tonnes and the Ukraine 310,000. At
the middle of the 20th century, the
United States was the world's leading exporter of flour.
Destinations for global flour exports reflected the pattern of shippers. The Commonwealth of Independent States accounted for

imports of 2,550,000 tonnes, including 1.34 million moving to Uzbekistan and 650,000 to Tajikistan. It was
apparent that Kazakhstan's leadership as an exporter reflected the demands of its neighbors in the C.I.S.
Another important force in global
flour trade was military conflict, as
revealed in the importance of
both Afghanistan and
Iraq as flour buyers.
Afghanistan retained
its position as the
leading global flour
importer, projected
to take 1.6 million
tonnes in 2009-10, an
increase of 13% from
1,410,000 in the previous crop season. Ever
since the beginning of
war, Iraq has been a large
buyer of flour on world markets. Its takings in 2009-10 actually
were forecast to increase, reaching
1 million tonnes, against 900,000
in 2008-09 and the recent low of
602,000 in 2007-08.
Libya, which for many years was
the world's leading flour importer,
was forecast to account for 800,000
tonnes, the same as in 2008-09 and
well below 1,060,000 in 2007-08.
Indonesia also was expected to
import 800,000 tonnes of wheat
flour in 2009-10, the same as last
year and in line with several prior
seasons.
On a broad geographic basis, Far
East Asia was forecast to register the
major increase in wheat flour imports in 2009-10. The area's takings
were projected at 3,780,000 tonnes,
up 10% from 3,432,000 in 2008-09.
In contrast, flour imports into
the African continent have been on
a downward course, mainly due to
expansion of domestic milling in
parts of North Africa that once were
substantial importers. Total African
imports in 2009-10 were forecast to
reach 2,090,000 tonnes, down 2%
from 2,140,000 in 2008-09.
Thanks to Iraq, the Near East has
maintained its position, with imports of 1.6 million tonnes in 200910, compared with 1,643,000 in the
prior season.
North and Central America combined were projected to import
760,000 tonnes this season, against
722,000 in 2008-09. The region's largest flour importer was the United
States, at 235,000 tonnes, followed
by Cuba at 200,000 and Canada at
180,000. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

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Milling & Baking News - March 23, 2010

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