Milling & Baking News - June 1, 2010 - 46

Data 

Forecast holds for world flour trade
in 2009-10 to reach record total
LONDON - World exports of wheat
flour in 2009-10 were once again
forecast at a record 12.6 million tonnes
of wheat equivalent in an updated
report just issued by the International
Grains Council. While the trade total
was unchanged from the previous
forecast of last February, significant
revisions were made for both exporting
and importing countries.
Among the significant changes was an
upward revision in prospective U.S. flour
exports in 2009-10, now placed at 450,000
tonnes of wheat equivalent, compared
with 300,000 as the previous forecast. The
I.G.C. said the increase reflected "largerthan-expected shipments, particularly
to Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates
and Kenya."
At 450,000 tonnes of wheat
equivalent, equal to 7.2 million cwts
of flour, U.S. exports compared with
314,000 in 2008-09 and would be the
largest since 479,000 were shipped in
2007-08. While up substantially from

the previous low point, U.S. flour
exports still lagged the major flour
exporters by a major degree.
World flour exports of 12.6 million
tonnes of wheat equivalent would be up

World flour exports
(1,000 tonnes, wheat equivalent)
2009-10

12,600
12,256
11,851
10,696
10,845
10,158
8,666
9,900
8,231
8,494

2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

A BAKING TRA DITION
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3% from 12,256,000 in 2008-09 and were
6% more than 11,849,000 tonnes exported
in 2007-08. This year's trade aggregate
would be up 18% from 10,694,000 in
2006-07. Three straight crop years of
increases brought the new record in
global flour shipments.
Along with the 125,000-tonne increase
in prospective U.S. flour exports in
2009-10, gains of 200,000 tonnes each
were forecast for exports by Argentina
and Turkey. Most of Argentine flour
shipments head for neighboring Brazil
and Turkey's mills have continued to
supply Iraq.
Among
major
decreases
in
prospective exports were 150,000 tonnes
for Russia and 100,000 for Ukraine and
the European Union.
Kazakhstan's rank as the world's
leading flour exporting country was
maintained, with shipments once again
forecast at 3 million tonnes of wheat
equivalent, compared with 2,733,000 in
2008-09 and 2,054,000 in 2007-08. The
latter was the first year in which this
one-time member of the Former Soviet
Union became the world's leading
flour exporter.
Neighboring Uzbekistan provided
the principal outlet for Kazakhstan flour
exports, the total of that nation's imports
forecast by the I.G.C. at 1.4 million tonnes
of wheat equivalent. Such imports were
up 100,000 from the prior projection and
compare with 1,222,000 tonnes in 200809 and 919,000 in 2007-08.
Ranking second as a flour exporting
nation was Turkey, with its outgo now
placed at 2.5 million tonnes of wheat
equivalent, compared with 2,161,000 in
2008-09. Turkey's exports peaked in 200506 with an outgo of 2,649,000 tonnes.
The European Union and Argentina
are tied for third place in flour
exporting, with the outgo for each
forecast at 1.3 million tonnes of wheat
equivalent. The Argentine outgo would
be near the same as in the prior crop
year, while E.U. shipments at this level
would be down 12% from 1,482,000
tonnes shipped in 2008-09.
When it comes to import destinations
for global wheat flour, Afghanistan once
again was the leading market. According
to the I.G.C., this country's imports in
2009-10 will reach 1.6 million tonnes,
against 1,409,000 in the prior season and
922,000 in 2007-08.
Uzbekistan held second place as a
flour export destination, accounting
for 1.4 million tonnes, against 1,222,000
in 2008-09. Iraq, forecast to import 1.1
million tonnes in 2009-10, was in third
place, with its taking practically the
same as in 2008-09. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com
http://www.bcwil1iams.com http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - June 1, 2010

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