Milling & Baking News - July 13, 2010 - 28

Education and Research 

E.R.S. economist reviews hurdles
for next generation of biofuels
WASHINGTON - While a dramatic
expansion in production of nextgeneration biofuels will be needed to
achieve ambitious targets in the Energy Independence and Security Act
(E.I.S.A.), progress toward the commercialization of the new technologies has been slow and major hurdles
remain to be overcome, according to
the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A status report, "Next-Generation
Biofuels: Near-Term Challenges and
Implications for Agriculture," by
William Coyle, appeared in the May
issue of Amber Waves, published by
the Economic Research Service of
the U.S.D.A. Mr. Coyle is an economist with the E.R.S.
To reach E.I.S.A. targets, biofuel
production will need to reach 36
billion gallons by 2022, three times
current levels. Next-generation biofuels, principally from cellulose, are
expected to reach 16 billion gallons
by 2022, on track to surpass corn
ethanol use.
Biomass for the next generation
biofuels is expected to be non-food
sources, including wood waste;
crop residues; dedicated energy
crops such as switchgrass, energy
cane and biomass sorghum; municipal solid waste and algae.
"While some next-generation
processes that yield biobutanol or
petroleum-equivalent fuels will
use corn and other first-generation
feedstocks, overall next-generation
biofuels likely will have less direct
impact on food crops than first-generation biofuels," Mr. Coyle said.
While more than 30 companies
are working on next-generation fuels, production in 2010 is expected
to be a fraction of what had been
predicted. Most of the companies
are working on cellulosic ethanol, a
fuel identical to corn ethanol.
"Because ethanol provides only
two-thirds of the energy of gasoline
and faces blending and transportation constraints, some companies
are developing products like green
gasoline, green diesel and biobutanol, which are closer substitutes for
fossil fuels," Mr. Green said.
Early in 2010, the Environmental
Protection Agency reduced the cellulosic biofuels mandate for this
year to 6.5 million gallons from 100
million gallons. The E.R.S. is projecting actual production this year
28 / July 13, 2010 Milling & Baking News

may reach 10 million gallons with
capacity jumping to 200 million gallons by 2012. Capacity of next generation biofuels may reach 88 million gallons by the end of the year
(less than capacity from a single
new corn ethanol plant), but sector
capacity should top 350 million gallons by 2012. The first major plant,
which will produce petroleum
equivalents and will open in 2010,
will use animal and vegetable fats
as a biomass source.
Poet, L.L.C., Sioux Falls, S.D.,
which has an operating pilot plant
in South Dakota, may have the first
commercial plant to produce cellulosic ethanol, to be co-located

must be overcome for next-generation biofuels to emerge as a major
energy source is the high costs of
production and construction costs
for "untested technologies and processes on a large scale."
"Capital investment costs for
cellulosic ethanol plants are estimated at three to four times those
for first-generation biofuel plants,"
Mr. Coyle said. "These are the costs
incurred in the purchase of land,
buildings, construction, and equipment and represent the total cost to
bring a project to a commercially
operable status. According to 2004
estimates of the D.O.E.'s (Department of Energy) Energy Information Administration, capital investment costs for biomass-to-liquid
facilities ranged from $650 million
to $900 million for a 100-million

Next-generation biofuel production capacity, 2010
in million gallons

77.3*

10.3
1.0
Cellulosic ethanol

Biobutanol

Petroleum equivalents

*Dynamic Fuels, with a commerical plant expected to be operational in 2010, accounts for
75 million of the total. That plant will use animal fat to produce biobased fuel.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

with an existing corn ethanol plant
in Emmetsburg, Iowa. The plant is
scheduled to be operational in late
2011 or early 2012. It will use corn
cobs as feedstock. The current model for many other companies is to
open a pilot plant in 2010 (less than
1 million gallons of capacity) with
future plans to expand.
While interest is running high in
biomass sources such as algae and
municipal waste, agriculture will
need to play a central role if next
generation biofuels are to hit the
ambitious targets set for 2022, Mr.
Coyle said.
"Biomass inventory and other
analyses by the U.S. Department
of Energy, U.S.D.A. and E.P.A. conclude that of all potential sources of
biomass, U.S. agricultural sources
(crop residues and energy crops) are
the most significant," he said.
Topping the list of challenges that

gallon capacity plant, compared
with $130 million to $230 million for
a similar-sized corn ethanol plant.
Other more recent studies estimate
lower capital investment costs to
$320 million to $340 million for cellulosic ethanol plants, suggesting
that these costs could be trending
downward despite significant increases since 2003 in material and
energy costs."
In 2007, the U.S.D.A. pegged cellulosic ethanol production costs at
$2.65 per gallon, versus $1.65 for
corn-based ethanol. Mr. Coyle cited
another report indicating farmers
need to be paid $40 to $60 per dry
ton for enough feedstock for 12 billion to 20 billion gallons of cellulosic
ethanol from agricultural biomass,
prices consistent with what Poet expects to pay for corn cobs when its
plant opens in 2011.
"For farmers to shift to production
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com


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Milling & Baking News - July 13, 2010

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - July 13, 2010

Contents
Milling & Baking News - July 13, 2010 - 1
Milling & Baking News - July 13, 2010 - 2
Milling & Baking News - July 13, 2010 - 3
Milling & Baking News - July 13, 2010 - Contents
Milling & Baking News - July 13, 2010 - 5
Milling & Baking News - July 13, 2010 - 6
Milling & Baking News - July 13, 2010 - 7
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Milling & Baking News - July 13, 2010 - 48
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_09_13
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_08_30
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_08_16
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_08_02
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_07_19
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_07_05
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_06_21
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_06_07
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_05_24
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_05_10
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_04_26
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_04_12
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_03_29
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_03_15
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_02_16
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_02_02
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_01_19
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_01_05
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_12_22
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_12_08
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_11_24
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_05_26
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_05_12
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_04_28
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_04_014
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_03_31
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_03_17
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_02_17
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_01_20
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_01_06
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_12_23
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/mbn_2014_11_25
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_11_11
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_10_28
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_10_14
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_09_02
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/214_08_19
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_07_22
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_06_24
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_03_18
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_01_21
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_01_07
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_12_24
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_12_10
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_11_26
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_11_12
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_09_17
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_09_03
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_08_20
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_08-06
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_07_23
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_07_09
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_06_25
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_06_11
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_05_28
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_05_14
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_04_16
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_04_02
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_03_19
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_03_05
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_01_22
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_01_08
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_12_25
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_12_11
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_11_27
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_11_13
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_09_18
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_09_04
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_08_21
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_08_07
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_07_24
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_02_21
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_01_24
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2011_12_27
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2011_12_13
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2011_08_23
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2011_07_26
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2011_04_19
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2011_03_22
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2011_02_22
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2010_04_20
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2010_03_23
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2010_03_09
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2010_02_23
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2010_02_09
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2010_01_12
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2009_09_22
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2009_03_24
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2008_04_22
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2008_03_11
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2004_08_17
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2004_08_10
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2004_08_03
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2004_07_27
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