Milling & Baking News - September 21, 2010 - 42

Export and Trade Issues 

World flour exports reach record for
third year; small decrease ahead
LONDON - For the third straight
crop year, world trade in wheat
flour established a new record in
2009-10, according to revised data
just issued by the International
Grains Council in its latest Grain
Market Report. At the same time the
Council placed world flour trade in
the year just ended at a new peak, it
forecast a nearly 8% decrease in the
2010-11 season just under way.
According to the I.G.C., global
flour exports in 2009-10 aggregated
13,150,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent (210 million cwts in terms of
wheat flour), a new peak for the
third year in a row. The revised estimate for 2009-10 was up 819,000
tonnes, or 7%, from the prior export
peak of 12,331,000 in 2008-09 and
was 11% more than the first recent
peak of 11,849,000 in 2007-08.
It was only in 1995-96 that world
flour exports first exceeded 10 million tonnes of wheat equivalent,
reaching 10,136,000 tonnes. The record-setting pace of flour exporting
in the past decade was underscored
by the way flour exports decreased
from the peak in the mid-1990s
to reach a recent low of 8,824,000
tonnes at the start of the new century in 2000-01. From that nadir, exports in 2009-10 showed an increase
of 49%.
In its first forecast of global flour
trade prospects for 2010-11, the
I.G.C. pointed to a total of 12,160,000
tonnes in wheat equivalent. That
would be down nearly 1 million
tonnes from the record of 13,150,000
estimated for 2009-10, and would
also be exceeded by 12,331,000 in
2008-09. Except for those two years,
the prospective volume in 2010-11
was the largest.
A year ago, the Council forecast
2009-10 world flour exports at 12.4
million tonnes, which turned out to
be a minimal 700,000 tonnes on the
low side.
Not included in the I.G.C. export
flour data are shipments of durum
semolina. Durum semolina exports
in 2010-11 are forecast at 200,000
tonnes of wheat equivalent, unchanged from 2009-10 and compared with 203,000 in 2008-09 and
194,000 in 2007-08.
The I.G.C. attributed the prospect for a decrease in global flour
trade in 2010-11 to expanded milling
42 / September 21, 2010 Milling & Baking News

capacity in several importing countries. Indeed, it pointed to reduced
takings by all of the leading flour importing countries in 2010-11 as compared with the preceding season.
The sharpest import demand decrease was forecast for Afghanistan,
the country that has been the leading flour destination for several
years running. It projected Afghanistan imports in 2010-11 at 1.4 million
tonnes of wheat equivalent, against

Global flour exports
(in 1,000 tonnes)

2010-11

12,160*

13,150

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

12,331

11,849

Source: International Grains Council

*projected

record takings of 1,750,000 tonnes in
the previous season and 1,425,000 in
2008-09. Uzbekistan was forecast to
import 1.2 million tonnes in 201011, down 300,000 from its record
takings in 2009-10. Iraq, which accounted for imports of 1,250,000
tonnes in 2009-10, was forecast to
take 1.1 million in the new season.
Indonesia, a country that had recently built sufficient milling capacity to supply its needs, emerged as a
ranking importer in 2009-10, taking
1 million tonnes in wheat equivalent of flour imports. That country's
imports were projected to dip to
800,000 in 2010-11. The latter would
be in line with its imports in the preceding several years.
Partially offsetting these expected flour import decreases by leading importers were gains in several countries and regions. North
African imports were forecast at
620,000 tonnes, up 100,000 from the

previous season, largely due to an
expected rise in Libya imports. Tajikistan was forecast at 650,000, also
up 100,000.
When it comes to exporters, Kazakhstan once again held the dominant position in world flour exporting. Its exports in 2009-10 soared to
a new record of 3.5 million tonnes of
wheat equivalent (equal to 56 million cwts of flour), compared with
2,733,000 in 2008-09 and 2,054,000
in 2007-08. Kazakhstan accounted
for 27% of global flour exports in
the year just ended. Not so incidentally, that share of global flour trade
was less than half of the 56% share
the European Union held in 1996-97
when its exports peaked at 6,249,000
tonnes. From that high, E.U. exports
fell to a low of 1,227,000 tonnes in
2007-08. A small rebound to 1.4 million was forecast for 2010-11.
The I.G.C. forecast that Kazakhstan will continue as the leading
global flour exporter in 2010-11,
shipping 3.2 million tonnes in
wheat equivalent. This country's
exports primarily went to Uzbekistan and Afghanistan.
Holding on to second place was
Turkey, which exported 2,602,000
tonnes of wheat equivalent in 200910, up 20% from 2,161,000 in 200809. It was forecast to ship 2.3 million tonnes in 2010-11. According to
the I.G.C., competitive pricing by
Turkey on flour exports meant that
it opened new markets in Asia.
The Council attributed the decrease in E.U. exports in 2009-10 to
reduced sales to Cuba, Indonesia
and Libya.
On the other hand, U.S. exports
in 2009-10 reached 580,000 tonnes
in wheat equivalent (more than 9
million cwts), up 49% from 388,000
in 2008-09 and the largest U.S. exports since 667,000 in 2002-03. U.S.
exports last exceeded 1 million
tonnes in 1999-00 with an outgo of
1,399,000. The Council attributed
the rise in U.S. exports to "strong
sales to Mexico and South Africa."
The most dramatic change among
flour exporters was the Council
forecast that shipments from Russia will fall to a minimal 10,000
tonnes in 2010-11 as a result of the
government-imposed export ban in
the wake of the drought-curtailed
wheat crop.
Russia shipped 400,000 tonnes of
flour in wheat equivalent in 200910, which was down from 665,000 in
2008-09. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

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