Milling & Baking News - February 8, 2011 - 41

Cash Wheat
HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red winter wheat in Kansas City were unchanged to 7c a bu higher last week. The advances were conﬁned to the bottom two-thirds of the protein scale with high-protein wheat premiums untested because of a lack of offers. A historic winter storm swept across the Southwest laying a thick blanket of snow across much of the region and halting rail and truck wheat movement at least temporarily in most areas. Some mills suspended production brieﬂy because workers were not able to reach the units or because the mills weren’t able to load out ﬂour or millfeed. The logistical snarl produced by the storm may take days to unwind, but recovery already was well under way. The snowfall favored central and eastern sections of the hard winter wheat belt. Western Kansas, western Nebraska and eastern Colorado received lesser amounts of moisture and remained in need of precipitation and the protection snow affords to invasions of arctic air. The market suspected recent bitterly cold temperatures in areas only lightly protected by snow may have resulted in some winterkill, but damage won’t be evident until the crop emerges from dormancy. Mill wheat inventories and pipelines in most instances were adequate to support operations in the wake of the storm. Before the storm, railroad shipments across the Southwest were mostly on schedule. There were scattered transactions in the market for to-arrive wheat with some mills buying wheat to arrive in April-May. Kansas Agricultural Statistics in its January overview/Crop Progress report indicated a decline in wheat condition during January and reported concerns of some producers in the west that dry soil

conditions made the crop vulnerable to wind and freeze damage. Both categories of damage increased narrowly during the month with freeze damage affecting 1% of crop severely, 2% moderately and 15% lightly. Winter wheat rated good to excellent at the end of January was 27% in Kansas (37% poor to very poor), 21% in Oklahoma (40% poor to very poor), 17% in Texas (52% poor to very poor), 41% in Nebraska (44% fair), 67% in South Dakota (32% fair) and 73% in Montana (25% fair). A meteorologist addressing members of the Kansas City Board of Trade after last week’s storm indicated Texas and Oklahoma may receive additional snow in the next few days, but the best chances for signiﬁcant precipitation in western Kansas and eastern Oklahoma may develop during last couple of weeks in February or the ﬁrst couple of weeks in April. HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red spring wheat quoted as delivered Chicago/beyond values in relation to the Minneapolis March wheat future were unchanged to 50c a bu higher last week. The widest gains were posted on wheat with protein from 13% through 14%. Bitter cold winter weather worked against railroads’ efforts to catch up with shipping schedules. The railroads have been running badly behind schedules for several weeks. The result has been ﬁrm underlying support to the basis even as premiums continued to register sometimes erratic day-to-day changes.

Mills have been “double-buying,” purchasing wheat on the spot market to ﬁll gaps in pipelines left by delayed shipments of contracted wheat. This might pressure the basis once railroads begin to catch up. SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter wheat were ﬁrm to 20c a bu higher last week. In Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids were unchanged at 45c under K.C. March to 45c over. Gulf bids on soft red for nearby advanced 10c a bu, to 90c over Chicago March. St. Louis mill bids were 35c over Chicago March, up 20c. Chicago mill bids were unchanged at 10c under Chicago March; new crop, 50c under July. Mill bids in Toledo for nearby were unchanged at 20c under Chicago March; April-May, 30c under May; new crop, 70c under July. Elevator bids were 25c under Chicago March; new crop, 70c under July. Cincinnati nearby mill bids were unchanged at 20c under March; new crop bids were withdrawn. Elevator bids for nearby were 22c under Chicago March, new crop, 44c under July. Michigan white wheat mill bids were 10c under Chicago March to 20c over; new crop, 50c under July. Two soft red winter wheat states updated crop condition ratings at the end of January. Winter wheat rated good to excellent was 53% in North Carolina (38% fair) and 45% in Illinois (36% fair) with the U.S.D.A. reporting ﬁelds were snow-covered across the latter state for most of the month. MBN

No. 1 hard spring
Basis Minneapolis March, delivered Chicago\beyond cents per bu Feb. 4 — Change from — Year Premium Jan. 28 Jan. 21 ago Ordinary ... ... ... … 11% ... ... ... … 12% -35 @ -20 +35 @ +34 +30 @ +10 10 13% 10 @ 70 +15 @ +25 +10 @ +5 40 @ 50 13.5% 95 @ 135 +15 @ +45 +25 @ +25 80 @ 135 14% 170 @ 210 +15 @ +50 +20 @ +10 210 @ 225 14.5% 225 @ 270 +25 @ +5 +10 @ +20 250 @ 325 15% 320 @ 340 0 @ +15 +20 @ 0 350 @ 375 16% ... ... ... … 17% ... ... ... …

Cash wheat
Feb. 4 — Change from — For shipment Bid Jan. 28 Jan. 21 No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland $ per bu February ... ... ... March ... ... ... April 8.50 — +.65 No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu February -0.10 +.10 +.10 March 0.05 — — April 0.05 — — No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu February 1.80 +.10 +.10 March 1.80 +.10 +.10 April 1.75 +.10 +.10 Year ago … 4.85 4.90 … 0.42 0.35

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City March, cents per bu Feb. 4 — Change from — Premium Jan. 28 Jan. 21 Ordinary -52 @ -37 — — 11% -40 @ -25 +6 @ +6 +6 @ +6 11.2% -34 @ -19 +6 @ +6 +8 @ +8 11.4% -27 @ -12 +3 @ +3 +13 @ +13 11.6% -18 @ -3 +7 @ +7 +17 @ +17 11.8% -10 @ 5 +7 @ +7 +15 @ +15 12% -1 @ 14 +7 @ +7 +7 @ +7 12.2% -1 @ 14 +6 @ +6 +7 @ +7 12.4% 0 @ 15 +5 @ +5 +5 @ +5 12.6% 15 @ 30 +5 @ +5 +15 @ +15 12.8% 30 @ 45 +5 @ +5 +25 @ +25 13% 66 @ 81 — — 13.2% 70 @ 85 — — 13.4% 75 @ 90 — — 13.6% 80 @ 95 — — 13.8% 80 @ 95 — — 14% 85 @ 100 — —
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Year ago -26 @ -11 -7 @ 8 0 @ 15 21 @ 36 25 @ 40 25 @ 40 29 @ 44 29 @ 44 38 @ 53 40 @ 55 40 @ 55 40 @ 55 40 @ 55 43 @ 58 65 @ 80 65 @ 80 65 @ 80

Exporter bids and offers
For Feb. 4 shipment Bid Offer No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu February … … March … … April … May 53 May … May 53 No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans Basis Chicago future, cents per bu February +90 March 95 March +88 March 92 April +60 May … May +55 May … Year ago bid

… … +50 May +50 May

Canadian domestic milling wheat
In-store, Thunder Bay, Canadian $ per tonne Western red spring 13.5% Soft white spring Amber durum U.S. $ per bu Western red spring 13.5% Soft white spring Amber durum Feb. 4 419.64 331.06 431.10 11.54 9.10 11.85 Change from Year Jan. 28 ago +6.14 268.96 +6.20 208.86 +8.97 238.42 0.27 0.25 0.35 6.83 5.30 6.05

+26 +26 +20 +20

March March May May

Milling & Baking News February 8, 2011 / 41



Ingredient Week

… 1.65 1.65
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - February 8, 2011

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - February 8, 2011
