Milling & Baking News - March 22, 2011 - 16

Data 

the wheat to be planted in very good time. Topsoil moisture in Indiana and Ohio was dry. Michigan and Wisconsin were in good shape.” Mr. Van Hoose said there was good snow cover over the winter, and overall, the crop at this point looks good. Mr. Van Hoose forecast the Indiana crop at 26,240,000 bus, up 90% from 2010. He projected the Ohio crop at 58,500,000 bus, up 28% from a year ago, and the West Virginia crop at 406,000 bus, up 50% from 2010. Mr. Van Hoose said 60% of the Michigan winter wheat crop would be soft red winter wheat, and 40% would be soft white winter wheat. He forecast the state’s soft red winter crop at 27,744,000 bus, up 27% from 2010. The Michigan soft white winter wheat crop was forecast at 18,496,000 bus, up 33% from a year ago. Mr. Van Hoose said 98% of the Wisconsin winter wheat crop would be soft red winter wheat in 2011 with the remainder soft white winter wheat. He forecast soft red winter wheat production in Wisconsin at 19,727,000 bus, up 40% from a year ago. Wisconsin soft white wheat production was forecast at 403,000 bus, up 174% from 2010. Mr. Blume provided forecasts for the mid-Atlantic states. He said there were nearly ideal planting conditions last fall. Mr. Blume said the crop had good snow cover during the winter. Because of the good conditions, expected good yields and heavy forward contracting, he suggested there wouldn’t be much abandonment this year. Mr. Blume forecast the Delaware crop at 4,488,000 bus, up 72% from 2010, and the Maryland crop at 12,512,000 bus, up 54%. He projected the New Jersey crop at 1,925,000 bus, up 71% from a year ago, and the Pennsylvania crop at 10,020,000 bus, up 14% from 2010. Mr. Blume said 75% of the New York winter wheat crop would be soft red winter this year and 25% would be soft white winter. The New York soft red winter wheat crop was forecast at 5,508,000 bus, up 16% from 2010, and soft white winter wheat production was projected at 1,836,000 bus, up 5%. Ms. Barr forecast production in the key states of Illinois, Kentucky and Missouri. She projected the Illinois soft red winter wheat crop at 42,180,000 bus, up 155% from a year ago. She said Illinois producers had plenty of time to plant wheat last fall. “That, along with good prices, saw acres go up nicely,” she said. At the same time, dryness prevented a lot of the state’s wheat from getting a really good start. “Tiller counts were low,” Ms. Barr said. “But we know, ‘plant in the dust, the bins will bust.’” Ms. Barr said snow cover was “pretty
16 / March 22, 2011 Milling & Baking News

Snow cover was adequate, and there were no indications of signiﬁcant winter kill. Abandonment may be an issue in the bootheel should producers consider planting cotton because of poor wheat conditions. Mr. Gorman provided projections for North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia soft red winter wheat production. He said plantings increased in each state. “Growing conditions are good, and the crop is mostly in good to very good condition,” Mr. Gorman said. “Moisture in the past few weeks has been very Soft red winter wheat helpful, but if it continues for the next production by state few weeks, it will be less helpful.” The trade will have to keep an eye Harvested Yield 2011 2010 Change out for weather and other conditions area (bus per soft red soft red from that may affect quality. (1,000 acres) acre) (1,000 bus) 2010 Mr. Gorman forecast the North Ala. 180 47 8,460 6,262 35% Carolina crop at 21,500,000 bus, up Ark. 410 53 21,730 8,100 168% 53% from 2010, the South Carolina Del. 66 68 4,488 2,610 72% crop at 7,000,000 bus, up 50% from Fla. 13 38 475 280 70% a year ago, and the Virginia crop at Ga 180 47 8,460 5,000 69% Ill. 703 60 42,180 16,520 155% 13,800,000 bus, up 69% from 2010. Ind. 410 64 26,240 13,800 90% Mr. Bartels said the crop outlook Ky. 355 67 23,798 16,500 44% for the South was similar to that of La. 108 67 11,926 5,500 117% the Southeast as reported by Mr. GorMd. 184 68 12,512 8,100 54% man. He said there were more acres Mich. 408 68 27,744 21,777 27% in general across the South, but the Miss. 275 49 13,475 4,700 187% trade would have to be mindful of Mo. 668 49 31,726 12,222 160% crop quality given the problems seen N.J. 35 55 1,925 1,127 71% in recent years. N.Y. 81 68 5,508 4,757 16% N.C. 539 40 21,500 14,060 53% Mr. Bartels projections for the soft Ohio 900 65 58,500 45,750 28% red winter wheat crop in the southOkla. 37 28 1,036 1,209 -14% ern states were as follows: Alabama, Pa. 167 60 10,020 8,762 14% 8,460,000 bus, up 35% from 2010; S.C. 162 43 7,000 4,680 50% Arkansas, 21,730,000 bus, up 168%; Tenn. 243 55 13,365 9,540 40% Florida, 475,000 bus, up 70%; GeorTexas 96 25 2,363 3,285 -28% gia, 8,460,000 bus, up 69%; Louisiana, Va. 246 56 13,800 8,160 69% 11,926,000 bus, up 117%; Mississippi, W. Va. 7 58 406 270 50% 13,475,000 bus, up 187%; Oklahoma, Wis. 299 66 19,727 14,131 40% 1,036,000 bus, down 14%; Tennessee, U.S. total 6,772 57.3 388,364 237,804 63% 13,365,000 bus, up 40%; and Texas, 2,363,000 bus, down 28%. Mr. Gorman also provided white wheat couple of weeks to give a boost to tiller numbers they’ll need for maximum production forecasts for the Paciﬁc Northwest noting planting conditions last fall yield,” Ms. Barr said. Ms. Barr projected the Kentucky crop were nearly ideal. There was good snow cover during the winter and very little winat 23,798,000 bus, up 44% from 2010. “Strong prices and early harvests of ter kill. He projected the Idaho soft white corn and soybeans saw a nice increase in winter wheat crop at 57,000,000 bus, up acreage in Kentucky,” she said. “The crop around 31% from 2010; the Washington crop at 99,500,000 bus, down 1%, and the Oregon is looking good.” She added, “Some of the early-planted crop at 40,400,000 bus, down 22%. At the same time, Mr. Gorman pointed ﬁelds in southern and western Kentucky are close to jointing, which is a concern this to an increase in projected soft white spring early because of late freeze damage po- wheat plantings in the Paciﬁc Northwest tential. However, temperatures have been compared with a year ago. He forecast soft cooler than normal so that’s helped things.” white spring wheat production in 2011 at Ms. Barr forecast the Missouri soft red 16.7 million bus in Idaho, 14.9 million bus in winter wheat crop at 31,726,000 bus, up Washington and 3.9 million bus in Oregon, 160% from 2010. She said extremely dry for a regional total of 35.5 million bus, which conditions prevailed in the state last fall, would supplement the region’s soft white winter wheat supply. In 2010, soft white particularly in the bootheel. “But, Missouri wheat also came through spring wheat production for the entire Unitthe winter in pretty good shape,” she said. ed States totaled 37 million bus. MBN decent” during the winter with very little winter kill indicated. “The majority of the wheat has good color as it comes out of dormancy,” Ms. Barr said. “Most of the wheat does need some help since the tiller numbers are low, and most of the ﬁrst shot of nitrogen has been applied.” Early-March rainfall resulted in good soil moisture. At points it was excessive. “The crop has good potential with sun and warm temperatures over the next
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Milling & Baking News - March 22, 2011

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