Milling & Baking News - March 22, 2011 - 28

Data 

U.S. 2011 wheat carryover up 3% from February
WASHINGTON — The U.S. 2011 carryover projection for wheat was raised by 3% from February due to an expected reduction in 2010-11 wheat exports, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its March 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 843 million bus, up 25 million bus, or 3%, from 818 million bus in February but down 133 million bus, or 14%, from 976 million bus in 2010, the U.S.D.A. said. The U.S.D.A. wheat carryover projection was above trade expectations, which averaged near 810 million bus. As of March 16, the nearby May wheat futures price in Chicago was down 20% from March 4 and 28% from its Feb. 9 high, while Kansas City May and Minneapolis May both sank 16% since early March and 22% since early February, on a combination of bearish U.S.D.A. data, unrest in the Middle East and North Africa and the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The carryover increase was the result of a 25-million-bu cut in projected 201011 exports. At 1,275 million bus, projected 2010-11 U.S. wheat exports were down 2% from 1,300 million bus projected in February but up 394 million bus, or 45%, from 881 million bus in 2009-10 and still the highest since 1992-93. “Projected exports are lowered 25 million bus with increased world supplies of high quality wheat, particularly in Australia, and a slower-than-expected pace of U.S. shipments heading into the ﬁnal quarter of the wheat marketing year,” the U.S.D.A. said. Except for exports and carryover, U.S. 2010-11 all wheat supply and demand

numbers were unchanged from February, including beginning stocks at 976 million bus, production at 2,208 million bus, Wheat carryover by classes imports at 110 million bus and total supply at 2011 2010 2009 2008 3,294 million bus. — (million bus) — Also unchanged Hard winter 310 385 254 138 from last month were Soft red 168 242 171 55 2010-11 use projecHard spring 233 234 142 68 tions, including food White 83 80 64 37 use at 930 million bus, Durum 49 35 25 8 seed use at 76 million Total 843 976 657 306 bus, feed and residual at 170 million bus and total domestic use at Domestic wheat use by classes 1,176 million bus. Total use was reduced by 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 25 million bus to 2,451 — (million bus) — million bus due to the Hard winter 474 421 472 446 cut in exports. Soft red 237 256 332 211 But there were sevHard spring 271 282 273 242 eral changes from White 101 87 100 68 February in the byDurum 93 90 81 84 class breakdown. The Total 1,176 1,137 1,260 1,248 U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter Wheat exports by classes wheat at 310 million bus, down 3 million 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 bus from February — (million bus) — and down 75 million Hard winter 620 370 447 538 bus from a year ago. Soft red 100 109 199 209 The March change Hard spring 335 214 210 305 was based on a 5-milWhite 180 143 136 170 lion-bu increase in Durum 40 44 24 42 exports, to 620 million Total 1,275 881 1,015 1,264 bus, and a 2-million-bu decrease in domestic with $4.87 a bu in 2009-10 and $6.78 a use, to 474 million bus. Hard spring wheat carryover on June bu in 2008-09. World wheat ending stocks for 1, 2011, was projected at 233 million bus, up 22 million bus from February 2010-11 were projected at 181.9 miland just 1 million bus below 234 lion tonnes, up 4.13 million tonnes million bus in 2010. Domestic from February but down 15.42 milWheat supply, disappearance use was projected at 271 million lion tonnes, or 8%, from 197.32 milbus, down 2 million bus from lion tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 February, and exports were pro- wheat production was projected at — (million bus) — jected at 335 million bus, down 647.6 million tonnes, up 2.19 milSupply lion tonnes from February but down 20 million bus from February. Carryover 976 657 306 456 Soft red winter wheat carry- 34.99 million tonnes, or 5%, from Crop 2,208 2,218 2,499 2,051 over was projected at 168 mil- 682.59 million tonnes the previous Imports 110 119 127 113 lion bus, down 5 million bus year. Global wheat use was projected Total 3,294 2,993 2,932 2,620 from February based on a like at 663.02 million tonnes, down 2.21 Domestic disappearance increase in projected exports, million tonnes from February but Food 930 917 927 948 Seed 76 69 78 88 to 100 million bus, and down 74 up 10.52 million tonnes, or 2%, from Feed 170 150 255 16 652.5 million tonnes in 2009-10. World from 242 million bus in 2010. Total 1,176 1,137 1,260 1,051 White wheat carryover was exports were projected at 123.06 milExports 1,275 881 1,015 1,263 projected at 83 million bus in lion tonnes, down 2.28 million tonnes Total disappearance 2,451 2,018 2,275 2,214 2011, up 10 million bus from from February and down 12.74 milEnding stocks 843 976 657 306 February and up 3 million lion tonnes, or 9%, from 135.8 million bus from 2010, based on a tonnes in the prior year. MBN
28 / March 22, 2011 Milling & Baking News bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

0-million-bu decrease in 2010-11 exports at 180 million bus. The average price of all wheat paid to farmers in 2010-11 was projected to range from $5.60@5.80 a bu, unchanged from February and compared

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Milling & Baking News - March 22, 2011

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