Milling & Baking News - October 18, 2011 - 39

Cash Wheat
HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red winter wheat in Kansas City were unchanged to 22c a bu higher last week. The basis was unchanged below 11.4% protein; otherwise, premiums advanced 2@22c. Mills sought lower-protein hard winter wheat to blend with the plentiful supply of higher-protein hard winter from the 2011 crop. Premiums across the top two-thirds of the protein scale were underpinned by ongoing demand from many mills for hard winter wheat to substitute for spring wheat of equivalent protein for use in the manufacturing of certain blends. The strong cash basis, especially for middle-protein and high-protein wheat, and strong progress in the fall crop harvest were credited with rekindling some enthusiasm for selling hard winter wheat. Country owners of wheat, including growers, offered supply for delivery in November-December and even January-March, and at least some business may have been completed. But, whatever transactions took place in the market for to-arrive wheat fell well short of inquiry with bids and offers still far apart in most instances. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly Crop Progress report indicated wheat planting by Oct. 9 was 69% completed in Kansas (68% as the recent fiveyear average for the date), 47% in Oklahoma (63%), 41% in Texas (63%), 92% in Nebraska (91%), 96% in Colorado (91%), 80% in South Dakota (87%) and 73% in Montana (85%). Winter wheat emergence was 35% in Kansas (34% as the average for the date), 14% in Oklahoma (36%), 7% in Texas (35%), 73% in Nebraska (66%), 60% in Colorado (64%), 46% in South Dakota (57%) and 30% in Montana (42%). On the weekend of Oct. 8-9, muchneeded and in some areas heavy rain fell

across a band stretching from southern Texas to the Canadian border, and covering the central portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas. The U.S.D.A. field office in Oklahoma indicated after the rain topsoil moisture in the state as of Oct. 9 was 77% short to very short compared with 96% a week earlier, and subsoil moisture was 92% short to very short compared with 99% a week earlier. Kansas topsoil moisture was 62% short to very short compared with 74% a week earlier, and subsoil moisture was 72% short to very short compared with 76% a week earlier. Topsoil moisture was 95% short to very short in the southwest of the state, 64% in the south central region and 83% in the southeast. While most of Texas remained in severe to exceptional drought, many areas in the state also received welcome rain over the weekend. HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red spring wheat quoted as delivered Chicago/beyond values in relation to the Minneapolis March wheat future were 10c a bu higher to 40c lower last week. Offers on the spot market increased from recent paltry car counts, but the demand for spring wheat was constrained by some mills purchasing hard winter wheat instead for certain blends. The U.S.D.A. on Oct. 12 lowered its forecast for food use of spring wheat in 2011-12 by 15 million bus because of the substitution. The U.S.D.A. also lowered its export forecast for hard spring wheat by 40 million bus from its September projection.

The soybean harvest across the northern Plains was proceeding well ahead of the average pace for the date with combining in North Dakota 79% completed by Oct. 9. The corn harvest was just under way, but progress there also was ahead of the average pace. SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter wheat were firm to 5c a bu higher last week. In Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids were unchanged at 95c under K.C. December to 35c under. Gulf bids on soft red for nearby advanced 3c a bu, to 65c over Chicago December. St. Louis mill bids were unchanged at 45c over Chicago December. Chicago mill bids were unchanged at the Chicago December price. Mill bids in Toledo for nearby were unchanged at the Chicago December price; November, 25c over December; January-March, 15c over March. Elevator bids were 20c under Chicago December for nearby; new crop, 10c under July. Cincinnati nearby mill bids advanced 5c, to 25c under Chicago December. Elevator bids for nearby were 27c under Chicago December; new crop, 31c under July. Michigan white wheat mill bids for nearby were 15c under Chicago December to 10c over. Winter wheat planting by Oct. 9 was 22% completed in Missouri (21% as the average for the date), 10% in Arkansas (12%), 33% in Illinois (34%), 25% in Indiana (33%), 5% in Ohio (41%) with wet fields hampering significant progress, 40% in Michigan (49%) and 5% in North Carolina (5%), the U.S.D.A. said. MBN

No. 1 hard spring
Basis Minneapolis Dec., delivered Chicago\beyond cents per bu Oct. 14 — Change from — Year Premium Oct. 7 Sept. 30 ago Ordinary ... ... ... … 11% ... ... ... … 12% ... ... ... … 13% 100 -40 +20 0 @ 10 13.5% ... ... ... 30 14% 150 +10 @ -10 +50 80 @ 160 14.5% ... ... ... 130 @ 215 15% 150 @ 190 -25 @ -25 +55 @ +90 350 @ 375 16% ... ... ... … 17% ... ... ... …

Cash wheat
Oct. 14 — Change from — For shipment Bid Oct. 7 Sept. 30 No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland $ per bu September 6.17 -.13 ... November 6.20 -.13 -.23 December 6.23 -.13 -.23 No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu September 0.65 — ... November 0.65 — +.10 December 0.70 — +.15 No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu September 1.55 -.05 ... November 1.55 -.05 -.05 December 1.60 — — Year ago … … … … … -0.20

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City Dec., cents per bu Oct. 14 — Change from — Premium Oct. 7 Sept. 30 Ordinary 30@ 45 — +13@ +13 11% 30@ 45 — +10@ +10 11.2% 45@ 60 — +20@ +20 11.4% 65@ 80 +20 @ +20 +28@ +28 11.6% 70@ 85 +22 @ +22 +24@ +24 11.8% 75@ 90 +18 @ +18 +20@ +20 12% 80@ 95 +12 @ +12 +10@ +10 12.2% 80@ 95 +8 @ +8 +10@ +10 12.4% 80@ 95 +5 @ +5 +10@ +10 12.6% 95@ 110 +10 @ +10 +21@ +21 12.8% 115@ 130 +15 @ +15 +25@ +25 13% 126@ 141 +2 @ +2 +26@ +26 13.2% 127@ 142 +3 @ +3 +19@ +19 13.4% 127@ 142 +3 @ +3 +19@ +19 13.6% 145@ 160 +15 @ +15 +36@ +36 13.8% 145@ 160 +15 @ +15 +36@ +36 14% 160@ 175 +10 @ +10 +45@ +45
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Year ago -45 @ -30 -45 @ -30 -35 @ -20 -20 @ -5 -10 @ 5 -10 @ 5 -2 @ 13 -2 @ 13 0 @ 15 0 @ 15 6 @ 21 22 @ 37 22 @ 37 30 @ 45 45 @ 60 50 @ 65 50 @ 65

Exporter bids and offers
For Oct. 14 shipment Bid Offer No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu October +100 Dec. … November +95 Dec. … December +100 Dec. … January +90 March … No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans Basis Chicago future, cents per bu October +65 Dec. … November +75 Dec. … December +75 Dec. 80 January +47 March 53 Year ago bid

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Canadian domestic milling wheat
Change from Year In-store, Thunder Bay, Oct. 14 Oct. 7 ago Canadian $ per tonne Western red spring 13.5% 376.10 -8.89 317.18 Soft white spring 264.72 -4.72 291.55 Amber durum 559.26 -19.46 343.55 U.S. $ per bu Western red spring 13.5% 10.09 -0.22 8.54 Soft white spring 7.10 -0.12 7.85 Amber durum 15.00 -0.50 9.25
Milling & Baking News October 18, 2011 / 39

40 +50 +65 +45

Dec. Dec. Dec. March

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Ingredient Week

1.35 1.65 1.65
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Milling & Baking News - October 18, 2011

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