Milling & Baking News - October 18, 2011 - 41

Soy Products
Soy flour sales increased last week. As soybean meal futures prices advanced, some buyers scrambled to book soy flour, in several cases adding full coverage through all of 2012. Others, however, covered only nearby needs and likely will remain month-to-month buyers. Prices were higher. Lead times to deliver new orders were two to four weeks. U.S. 2011 soybean production was forecast at 3,059,987,000 bus, down 1% from September and down 8% from 3,329,181,000 bus last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Oct. 12 Crop Production report. Soybean yield was forecast at 41.5 bus an acre, down 0.3 bus from September and down 2 bus from 43.5 bus an acre in 2010. The carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 160 million bus, down 5 million bus from September and down 55 million bus, or 26%, from 215 million bus in 2011, the U.S.D.A. said in its Oct. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The U.S.D.A. soybean production, yield and 2012 carryout numbers were below the average pre-report trade estimates of 3,094 million bus, 42 bus an acre and 181 million bus, respectively. Soy complex futures prices posted strong gains with nearby soybean futures surging nearly 5% last Tuesday, the largest one-day gain in about a year. Prices advanced about 9% for the week despite strong harvest progress. Support came mainly from bullish U.S.D.A. data, new sales to China and expected lower soybean production in South America. Soybean harvesting in the 18 major states zoomed to 51% completed as of Oct. 9, up from 19% from a week earlier

and ahead of the 2006-10 average for the date of 46%, the U.S. D.A. said in its weekly Crop Progress report. Harvest a year ago was at 63% completed. MBN

Corn Products
Corn meal sales were active last week. Prices advanced. Since nearby corn futures prices dipped below $6 a bu at the beginning of October, most buyers have covered needs through March of 2012 with coverage beyond the first quarter still light. Sales have been well balanced across all grit sizes. Midwest mills were transitioning to new crop with most expected to make the change by the end of October. There was some concern about small kernel sizes of new crop corn, which resulted from the lack of moisture when kernels were filling during the summer. U.S. 2011 corn production was forecast at 12,432,910,000 bus, down 1% from September and down 13,955,000 bus from 12,446,865,000 bus in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Oct. 12 Crop Production report. Average corn yield was forecast at 148.1 bus an acre based on Oct. 1 conditions, unchanged from September but down 4.7 bus an acre from 2010. The U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 866 million bus, up 29% from 672 million bus in September but down 23% from 1,128 million bus in 2011, the U.S.D.A. said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Oct. 12. The U.S.D.A. corn production and yield numbers were below the average pre-report trade estimates of 12,492 million bus and 148.9 bus an acre, respectively, but the 2012 carryover projection was well above the 795-million-bus average trade estimate. Corn futures prices advanced about

6% last week despite the bearish U.S.D.A. carryover projection, which trimmed gains after midweek. Prices shot up last Tuesday ahead of the U.S.D.A. reports and on talk China was buying U.S. corn (a sale of 900,000 tonnes was confirmed by the U.S.D.A. on Thursday). Strong weekly export sales data offered support. Corn in the 18 major states was 33% harvested as of Oct. 9, up from 21% a week earlier and just ahead of 32% as the 2006-10 average for the date, the U.S.D.A. said in its weekly Crop Progress report. MBN

Oats
Bookings of food grade oats flakes were fairly active, especially since Oct. 7, when nearby futures prices dipped to near seven-month lows below $3.20 a bu. It was estimated buyers had covered at least 50% of their needs through March 2012, and a few have added coverage through September or even December of next year. Still, basis levels firmed when December futures dropped to around $3.20 a bu, resulting in mostly steady to even firmer cash prices paid by millers. MBN

Rice
U.S. milled rice prices were mixed but mostly lower last week with long-grain, medium-grain and parboiled steady to lower, second heads firmer and brewers’ grain unchanged. Rice byproduct prices were firm to $35 a ton higher. Rough rice futures prices posted solid gains. U.S. 2011 rice production was forecast at 186,903,000 cwts, down 2% from the September projection and down 23% from 243,104,000 cwts in 2010, the U.S.D.A. said. Rice in the six major states was 74% harvested as of Oct. 9, compared with 80% as the five-year average, the U.S.D.A. said. MBN

Chicago corn and soy futures
Corn Futures $ per bu December March May July September December Soybeans November January March May July August Soybean Meal October December January March May July — Change from — Year Oct. 14 Oct. 7 Sept. 30 ago 6.40 6.51½ 6.58¾ 6.63¼ 6.23¼ 6.01½ $ per bu 12.70 12.78½ 12.85¾ 12.89 12.95½ 12.84¾ $ per ton 328.40 327.60 329.70 332.0 332.80 335.10 +40 +38¾ +38½ +39 +30 +33½ +47½ +45¾ +45¼ +44 +36¾ +35¾ 5.63 5.75 5.80¾ 5.82½ 5.39½ 5.16¾ 11.85 11.95¾ 12.03½ 12.04¾ 12.09 11.96 328.20 329.40 331.70 332.00 333.00 328.00

Soy products
Defatted, f.o.b. Midwest plant, $ per cwt — Change from — Oct. 14 Oct. 7 Sept. 30 Soy ﬂour Bulk 23.13 @ 23.39 +1.13@ +.69 +.89 @ +.21 Sacked 24.39 @ 25.13 +.69@+1.13 +.21 @ +.89

Rice
Offers f.o.b. mills, $ per cwt, bagged — Change from — Year Cash Oct. 14 Oct. 7 Sept. 30 ago Long grain 27.00@30.00 -1.00 -1.00 22.00 Medium grain 32.50@36.00 -3.00 -3.00 29.00 Parboiled 31.00@37.00 -1.50 -1.50 25.75 Second heads, bulk 17.00@17.50 +0.50 +0.50 15.00 Brewers 14.00@16.00 — — 12.00 f.o.b. mills, $ per ton Rice millfeed 85@90 +5.00 +5.00 32.00 Rice bran 190@210 +35.00 +35.00 70.00 Rice hulls 40@50 — +10.00 5.00 U.S.D.A. 2011 crop world price milled - $ per cwt Long grain 23.88 — +0.82 18.10 Medium/short grain 23.56 — +0.81 17.86 Broken 16.90 — +0.58 12.81 C.B.O.T. rough rice futures - $ per cwt November 16.62½ +1.00 +0.67½ 13.59 January 16.93 +1.00 +0.67 13.87 March 17.23½ +1.00 +0.67½ 14.15 May 17.49 +0.97½ +0.65 14.41
Milling & Baking News October 18, 2011 / 41

Corn meal
$ per cwt Oct. 14 Chicago, bulk 23.30@ 27.25 Chicago, sacked 25.07@ 29.08 New York, bulk 24.97@ 28.98 New York, sacked 27.39@ 31.37 — Change from — Oct. 7 Sept. 30 +.80@+.75 +.95@+.89 +.80@+.75 +.95@+.89 +.80@+.75 +.95@+.89 +.80@+.75 +.95@+.89 — Change from — Oct. 7 Sept. 30 +50c +24c — — +17c —

+111¾ +91 +108½ +89 +106½ +87½ +101¾ +84½ +100¼ +83 +92¼ +75¼ +28.30 +23.30 +23.10 +21.80 +20.20 +19.30 +23.70 +19.00 +19.10 +17.30 +15.30 +14.30

Oats
Minneapolis Oct. 14 Food grade ﬂakes, f.o.b., bagged, $ per cwt 30@30.50 Milling quality oats, No. 2 heavy, $ per bu 3.65 Oat hulls, $ per ton 25@35

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Milling & Baking News - October 18, 2011

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