Milling & Baking News - November 15, 2011 - 40

Ingredient Week 

Wheat Futures
Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures posted wide price declines, but Minneapolis futures traded higher. Macro-economic concerns again demanded attention and often pushed aside considerations fundamental to the U.S. and world wheat markets. Certainly, world wheat fundamentals argued for lower prices and ultimately prevailed in Kansas City and Chicago. And there was a fundamental case to be made for Minneapolis resisting the downturn as the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its estimates for 2011 spring wheat and durum production. The U.S.D.A. on Nov. 9 forecast world wheat production in 2011-12 at 683.3 million tonnes, up 2.1 million tonnes from the October forecast and up 34.6 million tonnes, or 5%, from 648.7 million tonnes in 2010-11. The 2011-12 crop was forecast to be the world’s second largest following only the 2009-10 outturn of 648.31 million tonnes. World wheat consumption was forecast at a record 676.83 million tonnes, and world wheat exports were projected at 137.3 million tonnes, up 5.93 million tonnes from 131.37 million tonnes in the previous year. World wheat ending stocks in 2011-12 were projected at 202.6 million tonnes, up 0.23 million tonnes from the October outlook and up 6.47 million

tonnes, or 3%, from 196.13 million tonnes in 2010-11. Ending stocks were forecast to be the largest since 2001-02. Meanwhile, on the basis of a resurvey of northern Plains producers, the U.S.D.A. lowered its estimates for spring wheat production by 7 million bus, to 398 million bus, by 2 million bus for durum, to 50 million bus, and lowered the all-wheat estimate to 1,999 million bus. The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2012, at 828 million bus, down 9 million bus from the October projection and down 4% from 862 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. indicated net export sales of U.S. wheat during the week ended Nov. 3 totaled 298,400 tonnes, down 7% from the previous week and down 22% from the prior four-week average. Meanwhile, Egypt last week rejected U.S. wheat offers and purchased wheat from Russia and Ukraine. MBN

Millfeed
Extraordinary gains surfaced in a number of major markets last week in response to buying by jobbers and end users. Most gains took place at midweek, when demand at least in the Southwest pushed spot and balance-November prices to parity with December values.

The widest gains were in the Southwest and Northeast. Central states, Upper Midwest and Southeast moved higher. California prices fluctuated. Even at the start of the week, there were indications traders were moving to cover their positions given recent price declines. An additional stimulus was the outlook for significant slowing in flour grind over the Thanksgiving holiday and into December. This all led to the sharp midweek gains even as corn and other feed ingredients declined. Even with its most recent advances, millfeed remained attractive compared with competitive rations. Slowing demand from drought-stricken Texas and Oklahoma was offset by the outlook for colder weather and more seasonal buying. In the East, mill grind played an important role with individual units undergoing fumigation and other slowdowns. Lighter grind may become more common in December. Wheat germ was unchanged, although demand picked up. Millfeed was $200 a ton in Kansas City and $176 in Minneapolis on a rail basis compared with corn at $230 a ton and sorghum at $214 a ton, both K.C. Corn gluten feed was $220 a ton, distillers’ dried grain at $230 a ton, and dehydrated alfalfa at $295 a ton, all K.C. MBN

Wheat futures
$ per bu; change in cents per bu Nov. 11 Kansas City December March May July Chicago December March May July Minneapolis December March May July 7.04 7.15½ 7.25 7.32½ 6.16¾ 6.46 6.66¾ 6.81 9.34¼ 8.80 8.55¼ 8.38 — Change from — Nov. 4 Oct. 28 -14c -16c -15¼c -15¾c -20c -18½c -18c -20c +10½c +8½c +10¾c +3¼c -34c -37¾c -37½c -38½c -27¾c -34½c -36¾c -38c +13¾c +16¾c +8½c +½c Week’s High Low 7.40¼ 7.49 7.58¼ 7.66¼ 6.59¼ 6.82 7.02¾ 7.17¾ 9.68 8.85½ 8.65¼ 8.60¾ 6.88¼ 7.02¼ 7.12¼ 7.20½ 6.09½ 6.36¼ 6.56 6.70¼ 9.28 8.70 8.43½ 8.26 Year ago 7.30 7.45¾ 7.55½ 7.60¼ 6.69¼ 7.09½ 7.32½ 7.44¾ 7.44¾ 7.59¼ 7.68 7.75 High 10.34 10.14¼ 10.01½ 9.97½ 9.86¾ 9.54¾ 9.25½ 9.57½ 10.55¼ 10.55¾ 10.56 10.55 Season’s Low (02-09-11) (05-26-11) (02-09-11) (05-26-11) (02-09-11) (05-26-11) (02-09-11) (05-26-11) (05-26-11) (05-26-11) (05-26-11) (05-26-11) 5.59½ 5.03 5.15¼ 5.90 4.72¾ 5.05 5.21 6.14 5.14 5.32¼ 5.43¼ 6.74¼ (06-11-10) (06-11-10) (06-11-10) (03-31-10) (06-08-10) (06-11-10) (06-11-10) (06-11-10) (06-10-10) (06-09-10) (06-09-10) (07-15-10)

Kansas City wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu

Chicago wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu
$10.25 $8.75 $7.25

Bulk middlings
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted N=Nominal Spot Kansas City 200 @ 210 Southwest, f.o.b. truck 225 @ 235 Minneapolis 176 @ 184 Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck 172 @ 180 Chicago West 189 @ 197 Central states, f.o.b truck 175 @ 185 Buffalo 120 @ 130 Southeast 150 @ 160 N. & S. California 201 @ 221 Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck 197 @ 217 Paciﬁc Northwest 190 @ 205 Upper Midwest, sacked 310 Wheat germ 270 @ 300 Nov. 200@ 210 225@ 235 179@ 184 175@ 180 192@ 197 175@ 185 125@ 135 150@ 160 204@ 224 200@ 220 190@ 205 — Change from — Year Nov. 4 Oct. 28 ago +17 @ +22 +30@ +35 146 @ 152 +22 @ +27 +35@ +40 155 @ 160 +2@0 +10@ +5 139 @ 149 +2 @ 0 +10@ +5 135 @ 145 +2 @ 0 +10@ +5 152 @ 162 +15 @ +15 +27@ +27 135 @ 145 +10 @ +10 +15@ +17 115 @ 125 +7 @ +11 +10@ +12 117 @ 124 +5 @ 0 +29@ +34 164 @ 174 +5 @ 0 +29@ +34 160 @ 170 — +5@ +5 150 @ 160
N F M
Previous Year

$5.75 $4.25

Dec. Jan.-Mar. 200 @ 210 185@ 195 225 @ 235 210@ 215 184 @ 194 174@ 179 180 @ 190 170@ 175 197 @ 207 187@ 192 178 @ 188 165@ 170 130 @ 140 120@ 130 155 @ 165 150@ 160 209 @ 224 204@ 219 205 @ 220 200@ 215 190 @ 205 195@ 210

Apr.-June 136 @ 142 155 @ 160 …@ … …@ … …@ … 140 @ 150 95 @ 105 …@ … …@ … …@ … …@ …

A
Current Year

Minneapolis wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu
$10.50 $8.50 $6.50 $4.50 N F M
Previous Year

A
Current Year

40 / November 15, 2011 Milling & Baking News

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Milling & Baking News - November 15, 2011

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