Milling & Baking News - May 15, 2012 - 25

U.S.D.A. sees larger crop but higher wheat demand in 2012-13
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Depart- central Plains should boost hard red ment of Agriculture on May 10, in its winter wheat production sharply from first supply-and-demand forecasts for the previous year, which would offset the 2012-13 marketing year, projected lower production expected for soft red the carryover of wheat in the United winter wheat and white wheat comStates on June 1, 2013, at 735 million pared with last year. With winter wheat production forebus, down 33 million bus, or 4%, from 768 million bus as the estimate for the cast at 1,694 million bus, the U.S.D.A. all-wheat forecast of 2,245 million bus current year. The U.S.D.A. projected 2012 U.S. suggested a spring wheat (including all-wheat production at 2,245 million bus, up 12% from 1,999 Wheat supply, disappearance million bus in 2011. The wheat production forecast took into 2012-13* 2011-12 2010-11 consideration the department’s — (million bus) — first survey-based forecast for Supply 2012 winter wheat production Carry-in 768 862 976 as well as a spring wheat proCrop 2,245 1,999 2,207 duction forecast based on the Imports 120 120 97 U.S.D.A.’s projected planted Total 3,133 2,982 3,279 area for spring wheat, an averDomestic disappearance age abandonment rate and a Food 945 930 926 trend-line average yield. Seed 73 79 71 The all-wheat production Feed 230 180 132 forecast also was based on an Total 1,248 1,189 1,128 all-wheat harvested area proExports 1,150 1,025 1,289 Total disappearance 2,398 2,214 2,417 jected at 49.2 million acres, up Carryover 735 768 862 about 8% from 45.7 million acres in 2011, and an average yield forecast at 45.7 bus an acre, up durum) production forecast of 551 5% from 43.7 bus an acre last year. The U.S.D.A. in its May Crop Pro- million bus. The U.S.D.A. commented, duction report projected winter wheat “Spring wheat production for 2012-13 production in 2012 at 1,693,710,000 is expected to rebound with a recovery bus, up 200,033,000 bus, or 13%, from in durum area and higher projected 1,493,677,000 bus in 2011. It would yields for other-spring wheat, which be the largest winter wheat crop are expected to offset the decline in since 1,867,333,000 bus in 2008. The other-spring area.” Wheat imports in the upcoming U.S.D.A. forecast harvested area of winter wheat in 2012 at 35,580,000 year were forecast at 120 million bus, acres, up 10% from 32,314,000 acres in unchanged from 2011-12. The total wheat supply available in 2011. Average winter wheat yield in 2012 was forecast at 47.6 bus per acre, the United States in 2012-13 was projected at 3,133 million bus, up 151 milup 3% from 46.2 bus per acre in 2011. The U.S.D.A. noted the expected lion bus, or 5%, from 2,982 million bus recovery in yields in the southern and in the previous year.

U.S. wheat carryover
in million bus 976 862 768* 546 540 571 456 306 657 735**

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
*estimate

2013
**forecast

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Domestic wheat disappearance in 2012-13 was forecast at 1,248 million bus, up 59 million bus, or 5%, from 1,189 million bus in 2011-12. Food use of wheat was forecast at 945 million bus, up 15 million bus, or 2%, from 930 million bus in the previous year. The U.S.D.A. said it expected the flour extraction rate to decline modestly from historical highs in recent years, and flour consumption should grow with population. Seed use of wheat was projected at 73 million bus, down 6 million bus from 2011-12. Feed and residual use of wheat in 2012-13 was forecast at 230 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 28%, from 180 million in the current year. 2009-10 The U.S.D.A. said feed and residual use should increase from 2011-12 as “favorable 657 wheat prices relative to corn 2,218 and larger hard red winter 119 wheat supplies boost sum2,993 mer quarter wheat feed and residual disappearance.” 919 The U.S.D.A. forecast the 69 nation’s wheat exports in 150 2012-13 at 1,150 million bus, 1,138 up 125 million bus, or 12%, 879 2,018 from 1,025 million bus in 976 2011-12. “Larger supplies, more *Estimate competitive prices, and an early expected start to this year’s harvest open the door to higher demand for U.S. wheat during the coming months,” the U.S.D.A. said. The U.S.D.A. forecast the national average farm price of wheat in 2012-13 at $5.50@6.70 a bu compared with an estimated record $7.25 estimated for 2011-12 and $5.70 in 2010-11. The 735-million-bu wheat carryover forecast for 2013 would mark the third consecutive year of declines from the recent high carryover of 976 million bus in 2010. The U.S.D.A. forecast world wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 at 188.13 million tonnes, down 8.9 million tonnes, or 5%, from 197.03 million tonnes estimated for the current year. World wheat production for the next marketing year was projected at 677.56 million tonnes, down 17.08 million tonnes, or 2%, from a record 694.64 million tonnes in 2011-12. Global wheat consumption was projected at 686.47 million tonnes in 2012-13, down 7.88 million tonnes, or 1%, from a record 694.35 million tonnes this year. World wheat exports were projected at 137.02 million tonnes, down 9.72 million tonnes, or 7%, from 146.74 million tonnes in 2011-12. MBN
Milling & Baking News May 15, 2012 / 25

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