Milling & Baking News - July 24, 2012 - 49

Soy Products
Soy flour prices soared last week on record-breaking strength in soy complex futures and seasonal demand for warmweather foods. Consequently, sales of soy flour remained on an as-needed or month-to-month basis for those users that had not earlier covered their needs longer term. Soy flour was being pushed by soaring soymeal futures, which showed no signs of abating any time soon. August soybean futures in Chicago hit an all-time record of $17.77¾ a bu in overnight electronic trading July 20. Concerns deepened about the impact of a drought that was being called the worst since 1956. The soybean crop was starting to enter its pod-filling period and a continuing lack of rain was expected to lower yields. While fresh rains could still help the soybean crop, little was forecast. The weather outlook in the United States, coupled with a disappointing South American harvest, strengthened ideas that supplies of soybeans and soy products will be very tight. Soybean crush was reported by the National Oilseed Processors Association at 134,156,000 bus in June, up from 117,718,000 bus in the same month a year ago. A total of 3,225,121 tons of soymeal was produced in June, up from 2,827,665 tons produced in the June 2011. Soybean crop conditions deteriorated as of July 15, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its latest Crop Progress report. In the 18 major states, soybeans were rated 34% good to excellent, down from 40% a week earlier and from 64% at the same time last year. The crop in topproducer Iowa was rated 38% good to excellent, down from 48% in the previous week. The crop in the 18 states was 66%

blooming, well ahead of 34% a year ago and 42% as the 2007-11 average for the date, with 16% setting pods, up from 5% last year and 9% as the five-year average. Net U.S. soybean meal sales during the week ended July 12 were 276,900 tonnes for this and next year combined, far exceeding trade expectations of 50,000 to 150,000 tonnes. MBN

Corn Products
Prices of corn products rose sharply last week, following record-breaking corn futures prices. Demand for large flaking grits, corn meal, corn flour and extruded products was mostly steady, with some additional buying interest for large flaking grits, brewers’ grits and hominy. The spreading drought, coupled with recent sharp reduction in the estimated average U.S. corn yield by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, reinforced ideas that new-crop supplies will be far tighter than earlier expected. Some private forecasters have reduced their yield-per-acre projections as low as 130 bus per acre, well below the 146 bus per acre U.S.D.A. recently projected, which was down from the departments initial 2012 projection of 166 bus an acre. The 2012 corn harvest was under way with 3% of the Louisiana crop harvested. In that state, which is not one of the U.S.D.A.’s 18 top producers, a total of 68% of the crop was rated good to excellent as of July 15, in sharp contrast to the 36% good to excellent in top-producer Iowa, 11% in Illinois or 8% in Indiana. The drought’s increasing damage to the corn crop was evident in the U.S.D.A.’s overall crop rating of 31% good to excellent in the 18 major states as of July 15, down from 40% a week earlier and

66% at the same time last year. Seventyone per cent of the crop was in the critical silking stage with 12% advancing to the dough stage as of July 15. September corn futures prices hit an all-time high of $8.28¾ a bu last Friday. There were reports that some Midwest ethanol plants shut down, at least temporarily, because current economics didn’t support production of the biofuel. U.S. corn weekly net export sales were a paltry 31,900 tonnes for 2011-12 and 148,800 tonnes in 2012-13, during the week ended July 12, well below trade expectations of 300,000 to 500,000 tonnes. MBN

Oats
Prices for food-grade oats flakes rose last week as oats futures prices rose in sympathy with record-setting corn futures prices. Demand was steady but actual bookings were light. The U.S. oats crop was 38% harvested as of July 15, according to the U.S.D.A., well ahead of the five-year average of 14%. In the nine main oats-growing states, a total of 59% of the crop was rated good to excellent, equal with the same week in 2011. In Saskatchewan, a total of 79% of the oats crop was in good-to-excellent condition as of July 16, said the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture. MBN

Rice
U.S. milled rices were steady last week. Byproducts were steady to higher. Rough rice futures prices advanced. As of July 15, a total of 39% of the rice crop was headed in the six major ricegrowing states, up from 21% as the 200711 average. The crop was rated 70% good to excellent, the U.S.D.A. said. MBN

Chicago corn and soy futures
Corn Futures $ per bu September December March May July September Soybeans August September November January March May Soybean Meal August September October December January March — Change from — Year July 20 July 13 July 6 ago 8.24½ 7.95¾ 7.81¼ 7.77 7.69¾ 7.63 $ per bu 17.57½ 17.13¼ 16.86¼ 16.63¼ 15.38¾ 14.54 $ per ton 543.00 528.30 542.20 504.30 489.50 442.80 +84 +129¼ +55½ +102¾ +39½ +81¼ +38¾ +75¾ +37¾ +67¾ +4¾ +26¾ +162¾ +143¾ +133¾ +115 +39½ +7 +68.90 +62.70 +85.00 +50.90 +41.10 +15.40 +190¼ +181¼ +180½ +161¾ +86 +47¼ +81.50 +73.90 +96.50 +62.70 +55.40 +33.70 6.90 6.85½ 6.98¼ 7.05 7.11 6.62½ 13.80¼ 13.81 13.88¼ 13.97¾ 14.00¼ 13.96½ 363.00 364.00 365.80 369.30 370.80 372.50

Soy products
Defatted, f.o.b. Midwest plant, $ per cwt — Change from — July 20 July 13 July 6 Soy ﬂour Bulk 34.56 @ 35.54 +3.13@+3.74 +3.21 @+3.84 Sacked 36.54 @ 36.56 +4.11@+2.76 +3.84 @+3.21

Rice
Offers f.o.b. mills, $ per cwt, bagged — Change from — Year Cash July 20 July 13 July 6 ago Long grain 24.50@25.00 — — 24.00 Medium grain 27.00@27.50 — — 35.50 Parboiled 27.75@31.50 — — 28.50 Second heads, bulk 18.00@18.50 — — 15.00 Brewers 17.00@18.00 — — 12.00 f.o.b. mills, $ per ton Rice millfeed ... ... . . . 65.00 Rice bran 145.00@160.00 +10 +10 145.00 Rice hulls 30.00 +5 +5 15.00 U.S.D.A. 2011 crop world price milled - $ per cwt Long grain 18.61 -0.11 — 20.20 Medium/short grain 18.39 -0.10 — 19.87 Broken 13.17 -0.08 — 14.29 C.B.O.T. rough rice futures - $ per cwt September 15.53½ +0.25 +0.48 16.74 November 15.79½ +0.24½ +0.46½ 17.05 January 16.07 +0.24½ +0.46 17.33 March 16.33½ +0.25½ +0.46½ 17.63
Milling & Baking News July 24, 2012 / 49

Corn meal
$ per cwt July 20 28.34@ 30.90 30.11@ 32.73 30.01@ 32.63 32.43@ 35.02 — Change from — July 13 July 6 +1.70@+1.65 +2.60@+2.50 +1.70@+1.65 +2.60@+2.50 +1.70@+1.65 +2.60@+2.50 +1.70@+1.65 +2.60@+2.50

Chicago, bulk Chicago, sacked New York, bulk New York, sacked

Oats
— Change from — Minneapolis July 20 July 13 July 6 Food grade ﬂakes, f.o.b., bagged, $ per cwt 31.50@31.75 +.25 +.25 Milling quality oats, No. 2 heavy, $ per bu 4.07 +14½c +20¼c Oat hulls, $ per ton 25@35 — —

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Milling & Baking News - July 24, 2012

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