Milling & Baking News - October 02, 2012 - 37

Soy Products
Soy flour prices ended higher last week amid robust seasonal soy flour demand and a firmer soybean meal basis. Endusers who had waited for harvest pressure to weaken soy complex futures rushed to cover needs at attractive prices, only to see the burst of demand push soy flour prices well above the previous week’s levels. Bookings were several weeks forward. Soybean meal futures traded lower through Thursday but retraced losses on Friday after the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s quarterly Grain Stocks report, which propelled corn futures prices up the limit, which pulled wheat and soy complex prices higher. The report, which calculated grain supplies as of Sept. 1, 2012, cut soybean stocks by 21% from 2011 to 169,417,000 bus. That total was higher than analysts’ average prediction of a cut in stocks to 132 million bus. Nevertheless, prices firmed, buoyed by the sharp rallies in corn and wheat futures. Despite evidence of larger-than-expected U.S. soybean supplies, the world supply situation remained tight, which also helped buoy prices. Drought-related crop forecast reductions in Argentina and Brazil have long been factored into ideas that brisk export demand may squeeze world supplies and push prices higher. Export sales of U.S. soybeans were seen as strong last week. On Friday, the U.S.D.A. announced sales of 180,000 tonnes to China for delivery in the 201213 marketing year. The U.S.D.A.’s weekly Crop Progress report said 35% of the soybean crop in the 18 major states was in good-to-excellent condition as of Sept. 23, up from 33% a week earlier and compared with 53% in

the same week a year earlier. Twenty-two per cent of the crop was harvested as of Sept. 23, up from 4% in the same week a year ago and 8% as the five-year average. Net export sales of U.S. soybeans during the week ended Sept. 20 were 799,500 tonnes for 2012-13, at the top end of trade expectations of 600,000 to 800,000 tonnes. Soybean meal export sales in the week ended Sept. 20 were 11,700 tonnes for 2011-12 and 424,700 tonnes for 201213, above trade expectations of 150,000 to 300,000 tonnes. MBN

rated good to excellent. Net export sales of U.S. corn in the week ended Sept. 20 were significantly below expectations. The U.S.D.A. said sales for 2012-13 totaled 400 tonnes while no sales were reported for 2013-14, well below expectations of 125,000 to 275,000 tonnes. MBN

Oats
Food-grade oats flake prices were about steady last week. Prices of oat futures were modestly higher in nearby months, reflecting gains late in the week in outside markets following the U.S.D.A. reports on Friday. In the U.S.D.A. Small Grains Summary 2012 released on Sept. 28, oats production was estimated at 64,024,0000 bus, up 19% from 2011 at 53,649,000 bus. Average yield was estimated at 61.3 bus per acre, up 4.2 bus per acre from 2011. Harvested acres in 2012 were 1,045,000 acres, up 11% from 939,000 acres in 2011. The 2012 total acres was the second-smallest harvested acreage for oats on record, the U.S.D.A. said. The oats harvest in Saskatchewan was 80% completed. The harvest of crops in the province was ahead of the five-year average, the province’s latest weekly crop report said. MBN

Corn Products
Corn meal sales were brisk last week amid softening prices that reflected declines in corn futures before last Friday. Corn flour demand was steady at the lower price levels, and brewers’ grits experienced normal good seasonal demand. After nearly a week of trending lower on fund liquidation, corn futures spiked limit up last Friday after the release of the quarterly Grain Stocks report from the U.S.D.A., which reduced corn stocks more than trade expectations. Old crop corn stocks on Sept. 1, 2012, totaled 988,403,000 bus, the U.S.D.A. said, down 12% from 1,127,645,000 bus on Sept. 1, 2011. Estimates were for stocks to be 1,128,000,000 bus. Market participants said the psychological effect of a carryover of less than a billion bushels was bullish. The U.S.D.A. said 39% of the corn crop in the 18 major states was harvested as of Sept. 23, up from 12% at the same time a year ago and 13% as the five-year average. Twenty-four per cent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, the same as a week earlier but sharply lower than on the same date a year ago, when the U.S.D.A. said 52% of the crop was

Rice
U.S. milled rice and rice byproducts were unchanged to lower last week. Rice bran prices were mostly steady but eased $10 a cwt in spots. World milled rice prices quoted by the U.S.D.A. were higher. Chicago rough rice November futures ended the week about unchanged. In the six major rice-growing states, 70% of the crop was harvested as of Sept. 23, up from 53% as the five-year average for the date, the U.S.D.A. said. MBN

Chicago corn and soy futures
Corn Futures $ per bu December March May July September December Soybeans November January March May July August Soybean Meal October December January March May July — Change from — Year Sept. 28 Sept. 21Sept. 14 ago 7.56¼ 7.59½ 7.56½ 7.49 6.59 6.30½ $ per bu 16.01 16.02¾ 15.64¼ 14.96¾ 14.63 13.99 $ per ton 487.00 486.90 483.90 468.40 447.00 435.40 +8 +8½ +6¾ +6¾ -6 -9 -20¾ -19¼ -15¼ -29¼ -44¼ -80¾ +2.50 +0.90 +1.20 +3.40 +6.60 +1.80 -25¾ -26½ -27½ -26 -30¼ -30¼ -138 -137¼ -138½ -126 -128¼ -156 -36.50 -38.50 -39.50 -40.10 -26.10 -25.80 5.92½ 6.05¾ 6.13½ 6.19¼ 5.86½ 5.65¾ 11.79 11.89½ 11.98¼ 12.04½ 12.12½ 12.09½ 304.70 308.60 310.60 314.70 317.50 320.80

Soy products
Defatted, f.o.b. Midwest plant, $ per cwt — Change from — Sept. 28 Sept. 21 Sept. 14 Soy ﬂour Bulk 37.25 @ 38.21 +6.04@+4.99 +.48 @ +.25 Sacked 38.25 @ 38.30 +6.04@+4.08 -.52 @ -.66

Rice
Offers f.o.b. mills, $ per cwt, bagged

— Change from — Year Cash Sept. 28 Sept. 21 Sept. 14 ago Long grain 26.75@28 — — 28 Medium grain 27.50@28.50 — — 35.50 Parboiled 29.25@33 — — 32.50 Second Corn meal heads, bulk 19.50@20 — — 16.50 $ per cwt 17.50@18 — — 14 — Change from — Brewers Sept. 28 Sept. 21 Sept. 14 f.o.b. mills, $ per ton 90@90 — +5 80 Chicago, bulk 26.69@ 31.38 +.63@+.63 +.04@-.72 Rice millfeed 190@225 -10 -10 155 Chicago, sacked 28.46@ 33.41 +.63@+.63 +.04@-.52 Rice bran 40@40 — +5 30 New York, bulk 28.66@ 33.31 +.63@+.63 +.34@-.52 Rice hulls New York, sacked 30.74@ 35.7 +.63@+.63 0@-.52 U.S.D.A. 2011 crop world price milled - $ per cwt Long grain 19.54 +0.22 +0.22 23.06 Oats Medium/short 19.24 +0.19 +0.19 22.75 — Change from — grain Minneapolis 13.83 +0.16 +0.16 16.32 Sept. 28 Sept. 21 Sept. 14 Broken C.B.O.T. rough rice futures - $ per cwt Food grade ﬂakes, f.o.b., November 15.47½ +0.24 +0.20 15.95 bagged, $ per cwt 32.25@32.50 — — January 15.79 +0.21½ +0.24 16.26 Milling quality oats, No. 2 heavy, March 16.07 +0.23 +0.26½ 16.56 $ per bu 3.83¼ ... ... May 16.28½ +0.23 +0.28½ 16.84 Oat hulls, $ per ton 25@35 — —
Milling & Baking News October 2, 2012 / 37

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Milling & Baking News - October 02, 2012

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