Milling & Baking News - October 16, 2012 - 37

Soy Products
Soy flour bookings were almost a month forward last week with supplies tighter than usual because of scheduled downtime by a few processors. Demand remained strong, reflecting seasonal needs that were likely to remain a factor through the year’s end. Soy futures traded lower for most of the week except Thursday, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture released bullish October Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports. Prices declined on position-squaring in advance of the release of the closely watched data. While the U.S.D.A. increased its soybean production and yield estimates from the previous month — which the market expected — soybean export projections were raised by 20% compared with the September estimate. The U.S.D.A. estimated 2012 U.S. soybean production at 2,860 million bus, up 9% from September but down 8% from 3,094 million bus last year. Soybean yield was forecast at 37.8 bus an acre, up 2.5 bus from September but down 4.1 bus from 2011 and the lowest since 33.9 bus an acre in 2003. Despite the crop being damaged by the worst drought in decades, it was the outlook for strong export demand that brought in buying interest. Ideas took hold that export demand would continue to stay robust, especially from China, leading to tight ending stocks. Crushings were also increased from the September estimate, reinforcing ideas domestic demand would stay firm as well and keep pressure on supplies. The bullish reports sent soy complex prices up sharply Thursday, but prices resumed their decline Friday on

profit-taking and ended lower on the week. Harvesting in the 18 major soybeangrowing states was 58% completed as of Oct. 7, up from 40% as the 2007-11 average for the date. The U.S.D.A. reported net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week ended Oct. 4 at 500,700 tonnes for 2012-13 and at 23,000 tonnes for 2013-14, well below trade expectations of 725,000 to 875,000 tonnes. MBN

Corn Products
Propped up by a firm basis, cornmeal prices were strong despite some seasonal softness in demand. High relative prices of corn products such as corn flour, brewers’ grits and large flaking grits did not appear to be rationing demand, which remained at expected slightly weaker levels. Corn futures were initially lower last week on position-squaring in advance of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports released on Oct. 11. U.S. corn production was pegged at 10,706 million bus, down slightly from the September estimate and down 13% from 12,358 million bus in 2011. If realized, corn production would be the lowest since 2006, the U.S.D.A. said. Based on Oct. 1 conditions, corn yield was estimated at 122 bus an acre, down 0.8 bus from September, down 25.2 bus from 2011 and the lowest since 113.5 bus an acre in 1995. The U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 619 million bus, down 16% from September and down 37% from 988 million bus 2012, the U.S.D.A. said. The 2013 corn carryover number was below the average of trade expectations of 645 million bus.

Prices soared after release of the reports, negating the declines from earlier in the week. At week’s end, prices resumed their decline after the U.S.D.A. released extremely weak corn export sales data Friday morning. Ideas were that corn prices were too high to be competitive on the world market and buyers would likely turn to South America for a lower-price alternative. Net export sales of U.S. corn in the week ended Oct. 4 were a mere 4,200 tonnes for 2012-13 and 10,000 tonnes for 2013-14 compared with trade expectations of 300,000 to 400,000 tonnes. The U.S.D.A. said 69% of the corn crop in the 18 major states was harvested as of Oct. 7, up sharply from 28% as 2007-11 average for the date. MBN

Oats
Food-grade oats flake prices remained firm as oats futures prices gained ground following higher corn futures after the release of key U.S.D.A supply/demand and crop production data. Seasonal demand remained strong. The oats harvest in Saskatchewan and Manitoba was completed by Oct. 8. MBN

Rice
U.S. milled rice and rice byproduct prices were mostly unchanged last week. U.S.D.A. 2012 crop world milled rice prices also were unchanged. U.S. 2012 rice production was forecast at 199 million cwts, up 1% from September and up 8% from 185 million cwts in 2011, the U.S.D.A. said last week. The rice crop in the six major states was 79% harvested as of Oct. 7, slightly ahead of 74% as the 2007-11 average for the date, the U.S.D.A. said. MBN

Chicago corn and soy futures
Corn Futures $ per bu December March May July September December Soybeans November January March May July August Soybean Meal October December January March May July — Change from — Year Oct. 12 Oct. 5 Sept. 28 ago 7.52¾ 7.52¾ 7.45¼ 7.40½ 6.60½ 6.32 $ per bu 15.22½ 15.22 14.92 14.49¾ 14.40¼ 14.19¾ $ per ton 474.30 465.20 459.50 444.40 422.90 417.90 +4¾ +4¼ +1½ +2¾ +4 +7¾ -29 -29 -21 -10¾ -2 +1½ -.40 -6.00 -7.60 -6.80 -2.90 +1.90 -3½ -6¾ -11¼ -8½ +1½ +2 -78½ -80¾ -72¼ -47 -22¾ +20¾ -12.70 -21.70 -24.40 -24.00 -24.10 -17.50 6.40 6.51½ 6.58¾ 6.63¼ 6.23¼ 6.01½ 12.70 12.78½ 12.85¾ 12.89 12.95½ 12.84¾ 328.40 327.60 329.70 332.00 332.80 335.10

Soy products
Defatted, f.o.b. Midwest plant, $ per cwt — Change from — Oct. 12 Oct. 5 Sept. 28 Soy ﬂour Bulk 35.39 @ 35.49 -.29@ -.20 -.91 @-1.76 Sacked 36.49 @ 37.39 -.20@ -.29 -1.76 @ -.91

Rice
Offers f.o.b. mills, $ per cwt, bagged

— Change from — Year Cash Oct. 12 Oct. 5 Sept. 28 ago Long grain 26.75@28.00 — — 27.00 Medium grain 27.50@28.50 — — 32.50 Parboiled 29.25@33.00 — — 31.00 Second Corn meal heads, bulk 19.50@20.00 — — 17.00 $ per cwt 17.00@18.00 — -0.50 14.00 — Change from — Brewers Oct. 12 Oct. 5 Sept. 28 f.o.b. mills, $ per ton — — 85.00 Chicago, bulk 26.15@ 31.20 +.07@+.08 -.07@-.08 Rice millfeed 90.00@93.00 190.00@200.00 — — 190.00 Chicago, sacked 27.92@ 33.29 +.07@+.08 -.07@-.08 Rice bran 40.00 — — 40.00 New York, bulk 27.82@ 33.19 +.07@+.08 -.07@-.08 Rice hulls New York, sacked 30.24@ 35.60 +.07@+.08 -.07@-.08 U.S.D.A. 2011 crop world price milled - $ per cwt Long grain 19.38 — -0.16 23.88 Oats Medium/short 19.11 — -0.13 23.56 — Change from — grain Minneapolis 13.71 — -0.12 16.90 Oct. 12 Oct. 5 Sept. 28 Broken C.B.O.T. rough rice futures - $ per cwt Food grade ﬂakes, f.o.b., November 15.02½ -0.08 -0.45 16.63 bagged, $ per cwt 32.50@32.75 +.25 +.25 January 15.35 -0.08 -0.44 16.93 Milling quality oats, No. 2 heavy, 15.67 -0.04 -0.40 17.24 $ per bu 4.12 +24¾c +28¾c March May 15.90 -0.01½ -0.38½ 17.49 Oat hulls, $ per ton 25@35 — —
Milling & Baking News October 16, 2012 / 37

bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com



Ingredient Week

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - October 16, 2012

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - October 16, 2012