Milling & Baking News - October 16, 2012 - 7

Greatest growth in global milling lies ahead

s strong as the temptation may be to relate material for a rapidly growing milling industry. Inforecasts of continued rapid growth in global donesia stands as the stellar example of a nation that population to likely expansion of basic food has assured its millions an adequate food supply businesses like flour milling, a measure of caution made up of flour-based products. needs to accompany such analysis. It is likely that The world’s two most populous nations, China and industries like wheat milling will not enjoy gains India, present fascinating insights into the way flour comparable to population growth in countries and milling capacity relates to population gains. Mainly regions where other food crops, especially rice or as the result of governmental participation in distrimaize, dominate. Beyond those basic limits are the bution of wheat, India has maintained its unique sinmuch larger impacts of infrastructure condition, in- gle-operator grinding units to make its special flour. vestment capacity and government encouragement. It China, which has more than 2,000 flour mills at the has been striking in watching these forces play out in latest count, has spurred milling modernization to the recent years to perceive how neglectful governments point that it not only is the world’s largest producer of are. Even nations striving to expand food production flour but also has become a major center of manufacoften overlook the importance of making food avail- turing milling equipment. able in a form that is easily transported and readily According to population experts and food analysts, converted into edible food. the 21st century will be an unprecedented challenge. No one involved with population and food issues By the middle of this century, in 2050, the global popdenies that flour and bread ulation is forecast to exceed It is likely that industries like are the perfect solution. That 9 billion, which would be a wheat milling will not enjoy gains has been strikingly evident in third more than at present. As comparable to population growth in the nations that made up the amazing as those numbers countries and regions where other Former Soviet Union where may be, the truly astounding bread historically has been aspect is that almost all of the food crops, especially rice or maize, the main source of energy increase will occur in develdominate. and nutrients. In the wake of oping nations and at the same the break-up of the F.S.U. into independent nations, time, the share living in cities will climb to 70 per cent, the introduction of modern flour milling has been contrasted with the 49 per cent urban share at presa central theme in a nation like Kazakhstan. Rapid ent. That combination accounts for the likelihood that growth in milling not only has assured an adequate food needs of what is described as “this larger, more food supply for a population that often suffered from urban and richer population” will expand at a rate hunger under the Communist regime, but made for nearly double the population gain alone. The Food growth to the point that Kazakhstan, almost miracu- and Agriculture Organization projects global cereal lously, is now the world’s leading exporter of flour. grains needs in 2050 at 3 billion tonnes, against 2.1 Growth in flour milling in recent years is not lim- billion currently. That makes no allowance for grain ited to nations suddenly freed from a failed system used in producing biofuels. but also has occurred in developing nations where The chances are good that flour milling will come economic gains were matched by expansion in mill- near to matching this growth. If so, this century ing capacity. That model is mainly evident in central would witness the largest expansion of milling in hisand southern Asia where countries that once relied tory. While this will occur mainly in nations that now almost totally on local rice supplies have turned to have a limited, if not a primitive industry, the impact emphasizing domestic wheat production as well of such growth will certainly be felt in every corner of as expanded wheat imports to provide the raw milling, no matter how advanced. MBN MORTON SOSLAND, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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Milling & Baking News - October 16, 2012

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