Milling & Baking News - January 22, 2013 - 17



Winter wheat seedings, wheat
stocks below expectations
WASHINGTON — One of the greater
surprises from the bevy of data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Jan. 11 was the area estimated to be seeded to winter wheat
in 2012 for harvest in 2013, but the
trade also closely watched Dec. 1,
2012, stocks data and January supplyand-demand revisions for both wheat
and corn.
The U.S.D.A. estimated area seeded to winter wheat for harvest in
2013 at 41,820,000 acres, up 1% from
41,324,000 acres for 2012. Winter
wheat planted area this year was the
largest since 43,346,000 acres in 2009
and compared with 41.8 million acres
as the recent five-year average, but
the estimate fell toward the low end
of pre-report trade expectations that
averaged 42.6 million acres.
The greater surprise was in the
“by-class” breakdown. While soft
red winter wheat seedings were up
sharply from 2012, hard winter wheat
seedings declined. Area seeded to
hard red winter wheat was estimated
by the U.S.D.A. at 29.1 million acres,
down 2% from a year earlier and well
below the average pre-report trade
number of 30.3 million acres.
“Acreage changes from last year
are mixed across the growing region,”
the U.S.D.A. said in its Winter Wheat
Seedings report. “Growers in Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas planted significantly more acres this year while
large acreage decreases occurred in
Colorado, Kansas, Montana and the
Dakotas. Widespread drought conditions and lack of moisture continue to
be a concern across much of the hard
red winter growing area.”
Seedings declined 2% from a year
earlier in Kansas, 6% in Colorado, 9%
in Montana, 9% in South Dakota and
47% in North Dakota, but increased 7%
in Nebraska and 2% in Oklahoma and
Texas, according to the U.S.D.A. data.
Paul Meyers, chief agricultural
economist with Foresight Commodity Services, Inc., suggested the hard
red winter wheat crop may come in
around 915 million bus, down about
9% from 2012 outturn of 1,004 million bus as the drought cuts yields
in addition to already-reduced
planted area.
“Much of the southern Great
Plains accumulated rain and snow
totaling less than 25% of normal (in
December),” the U.S.D.A. added in
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its monthly Crop Production report,
also released Jan. 11. “Unfavorably
dry conditions led to further deterioration of winter wheat in some
areas.”
The potential of fewer acres and
potentially reduced yields to tighten
supplies of hard red winter wheat in
2013-14 pushed wheat futures prices
to near one-month highs by midweek last week. After struggling to
break out of a trading range since
late July and declining about 15%
from Nov. 8 to Jan. 11, the nearby
March hard red winter wheat future
in Kansas City as of last Wednesday
had rebounded more than 5% since
the U.S.D.A. report.
The nearby March soft red winter
wheat future in Chicago had dropped
about 20% since early November and
also had added about 5% back since
the report, even though the U.S.D.A.
soft red acreage estimate exceeded
expectations.
The soft red winter wheat seeded
area was estimated at 9.42 million
acres, up 16% from a year earlier and
well above the average of trade expectations at 8.9 million acres.
“Increases from last year are estimated in most soft red winter growing states with North Carolina producers seeding a record-large area,”
the U.S.D.A. said.
Seeded area increased from a year
earlier in nearly all soft winter wheat
states with area up 26% in Illinois,
29% in Indiana, 24% in Ohio, 27% in
Missouri, 20% in Arkansas, 16% in
North Carolina and 4% in Michigan.
Across the key soft winter wheat
Central states seedings were up 22%
from a year earlier with area up 14%
across the Southeast. In contrast,
seeded area was down slightly across
the hard red winter Southwest region.
White winter wheat seedings were
estimated at 3.27 million acres, down
2% from last year and compared
with the average of pre-report trade
estimates at 3.5 million acres.
Meanwhile, stocks of wheat declined from year-earlier levels, mostly
the result of increased wheat feeding
primarily due to high prices for corn.
Wheat stored in all positions on
Dec. 1, 2012, totaled 1,659,855,000
bus, down slightly from 1,662,518,000
bus on Dec. 1, 2011, the U.S.DA. said
in its quarterly Jan. 11 Grain Stocks
report. On-farm stocks of wheat

Data

were 399,500,000 bus, down 1% from
405,200,000 bus a year earlier, while
off-farm stocks were 1,260,355,000
bus, up slightly from 1,257,318,000
bus the prior year. Indicated disappearance of wheat during the September-November period was 445
million bus, down 8% from the same
period in 2011, the U.S.D.A. said.
U.S. wheat carryover on June 1,
2013, was projected at 716 million
bus, down 38 million bus, or 5%,
from 754 million bus as the December projection due mainly to a projected 35-million-bu increase in feed
and residual use, the U.S.D.A. said
in its World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates, also released
Jan. 11.
The U.S.D.A. Dec. 1 wheat stocks

Winter wheat seedings

Ala.
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
Del.
Fla.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
Iowa
Kas.
Ky.
La.
Md.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb.
Nev.
N.J.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
N.D.
Ohio
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Texas
Utah
Va.
Wash.
W. Va.
Wis.
Wyo.
U.S.

2013
240
10
660
610
2,200
75
20
410
760
830
450
40
9,300
600
260
330
590
40
420
1,000
2,100
1,480
20
34
430
125
960
400
620
5,500
770
200
235
1,200
540
5,800
145
290
1,650
11
320
145
41,820

1,000 acres
2012
220
10
550
610
2,350
85
20
290
780
660
350
18
9,500
580
285
310
570
40
370
790
2,300
1,380
20
33
450
100
830
750
500
5,400
790
165
235
1,320
420
5,700
140
280
1,700
8
265
150
41,324

2011
220
7
620
670
2,300
80
12
250
820
800
430
22
8,800
540
240
260
700
30
360
790
2,250
1,520
15
35
435
120
700
400
880
5,100
830
185
190
1,650
420
5,300
130
270
1,760
10
345
150
40,646

Change from last year
Per cent Acres
9%
20
0%
0
20%
110
0%
0
-6%
(150)
-12%
(10)
0%
0
41%
120
-3%
(20)
26%
170
29%
100
122%
22
-2%
(200)
3%
20
-9%
(25)
6%
20
4%
20
0%
0
14%
50
27%
210
-9%
(200)
7%
100
0%
0
3%
1
-4%
(20)
25%
25
16%
130
-47%
(350)
24%
120
2%
100
-3%
(20)
21%
35
0%
0
-9%
(120)
29%
120
2%
100
4%
5
4%
10
-3%
(50)
38%
3
21%
55
-3%
(5)
1%

496

Milling & Baking News January 22, 2013 / 17
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Milling & Baking News - January 22, 2013

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