Milling & Baking News - July 9, 2013 - 30

Weather Outlook 

Fierce western U.S. heat wave
sends fears into Corn Belt
A strong ridge of high pressure
evolved across western North America at the end of June and first days of
July setting many record high temperatures over the western United States.
The heat that reached 129 degrees
Fahrenheit at Death Valley, Calif., and
107 in central Washington sent chills
up the spines of many commodity
traders and producers in the Midwest.
The chills were partly due to deja
vu after one of the worst droughts

be spared from the heat until “possibly” the third week in July when the
heat “may” shift eastward. The heat
is unlikely to have the same level of
intensity or persistence as that in the
western United States, but it still will
have an impact on crops, livestock
and energy consumption. Confidence
in the eastward shift of the heat is a
little low, but it will not shift any earlier than the third week of this month.
The high level of worry in the commodity market during early July was

and heat waves in American history
just one year ago. Another reason for
the chills was because of the potential
for some of the heat to shift into the
Midwest and Plains states at about the
same time that corn pollination takes
place. Last year’s drought was so
devastating on the nation’s corn production because the heat and dryness
occurred at the worst possible time —
while crops were reproducing.
A warmer-than-usual bias in the
western United States was expected
to prevail through the first half of July
with some expansion into the Great
Plains near mid-month. The heat intensity was not expected to remain
constant with a fair amount of early
July only generating seasonably warm
temperatures.
Eastern portions of the nation will

hinged on the potential for crop threatening heat and dryness to impact the
Midwest during corn pollination. The
fear was being fanned by the media
with their constant bantering about
all of the record heat and the dramatic
television presentations to help sell
advertisements. But the damaging
effects of last year’s heat wave and
drought may still be seen throughout
the Midwest and Great Plains with
numerous dead trees and shrubs and
cracked home foundations and lingering water supply issues and for those
reasons the concern likely peaked.
Actually, the western U.S. heat
wave almost has to be expected. The
great drought of 2012 is not over — it
has just shifted further west. Most of
the far western states have reported
below-average rainfall in each of the

BY DREW LERNER

30 / July 9, 2013 Milling & Baking News

past six months. December was the
last wetter-than-usual month and portions of the southwestern desert region
have been drier than usual since July
2012. The lack of abundant moisture
in the western states has left the soil
quite dry and when it has been dry for
such a prolonged period of time in the
summer there is almost always a heat
wave of significance along with many
wildfires.
So, is the event all that unusual and
unexpected? No, not really, but that
does not change the impact of the
heat. Many human and animal lives
can and will be lost in heat waves like
that under way and it is not unique to
the western United States.
It is not a byproduct of “climate change” either, despite
what you are about to hear
in the next few days and
weeks, most likely.
There have been many
other record setting heat
waves, some in recent years
and some not. Summer 2010
in Russia there were numerous bouts of heat and record
dryness resulting in serious
crop damage. The longest
heat wave in Australia (over
100 degrees Fahrenheit) was
in Marble Bar in October
1924. July 1936 was a record
month for the United States
when 997 people died over
a 10-day period. In June
1976, the United Kingdom
reported 15 days of temperatures above 90 degrees
Fahrenheit and five more
days above 95. Parts of the
U.K. in 1976 went without
rain for 45 days. In 1988,
an intense heat wave occurred in the
United States that led to thousands of
heat-related deaths. France reported
its hottest summer since 1540 in August 2003 when 40,000 people died
across Europe and for seven days the
temperatures rose above 104 degrees
Fahrenheit in northern France. The
list goes on and on and includes similar disasters hundreds of years earlier. Keep that in mind while everyone
tries to convince us all that this is an
extremely rare event and byproduct of
climate change.
Most of the dryness and heat in
the western United States will prevail through the first half of July. The
biggest change will be the weakening
high pressure ridge responsible for
the heat. The ridge will not likely be
as strong again as that of late June and
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Milling & Baking News - July 9, 2013

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