Milling & Baking News - August 6, 2013 - 34

Data 

January-June ﬂour production
estimates ﬁrst-half record
Continued from Page 1

Bureau discontinued its compilations
due to budgetary considerations.
NAMA retains Veris Consulting
to survey the 24 largest U.S. wheat,
durum and rye milling companies as
listed in the Grain and Milling Annual
2013 on their flour production on a
quarterly basis. Published statistics
are based on data voluntarily reported to Veris for the second quarter of
2013. Milling & Baking News seeks to
compare the NAMA numbers with
past Census data where such comparisons are feasible. With NAMA data
available only for the last two quarters of 2011, 2012 and the first two of
2013, comparisons are difficult with
Census data that purportedly reflected the entire industry, while the NAMA-Veris figures initially represented
95.4% of capacity. Beginning in 2013,
Milling & Baking News reduced this to
95.1%. As a result, only the total U.S.
flour output numbers provide satisfactory comparisons.

As noted previously, the Census
Bureau, which had compiled flour
production data for years, did not
disclose the extent of coverage, except that reports were sought from
the entire industry. The Census
did note in footnotes accompanying past reports that some numbers
were estimated. Therefore, data
published in this report may not be
comparable to historical reports.
In attempting to compare NAMA’s
April-June total for the United States
reported at 99,759,000 cwts with Census data, Milling & Baking News divided this total by .951 to arrive at a
figure representing 100% of the industry. This results in an interpolated total
U.S. output of 104,899,000 for the second quarter of 2013. As noted above
this is a record. The prior high for the
second quarter occurred in 2009 at
102,926,000 cwts. A total of 12 second
quarters to date have seen flour production above 100 million. The recent
low was 75,012,000 cwts in 1984.

NAMA reported the 24-hour capacity of the reporting mills in the quarter at 1,473,141 cwts, which when
divided by .951 generated 1,549,000
cwts as the interpolated industry daily capacity. That estimated total was
up 17,000 cwts from the first quarter
and was 22,000 above a year earlier.
It was the largest flour milling daily
capacity since July-September 2010
when the total reached 1,550,000.
Milling & Baking News from the
above data computed the average
milling operating rate for the second
quarter at 87.9% of six-day capacity.
That was down from 88.4% in the
first quarter, but above 86.7% a year
ago. It was the highest operating rate
for the quarter since the run rate was
89.8% in 1993.
Operating rates assume a six-day
week and are based on 77 days in
the second quarter and 76 in the
first quarters of 2013 and 77 in the
second quarter of last year.
Average daily flour output in
April-June was 1,362,000 cwts, up
from 1,354,000 in the first quarter
and from 1,324,000 a year ago.
NAMA-Veris numbers showed

Quarterly ﬂour production, operating rate and milling capacity
by states and state groupings
Second quarter 2013
First quarter 2013
Milling
Milling
Production Operating capacity
Production Operating capacity
1,000 cwts
rate 1,000 cwts 1,000 cwts
rate 1,000 cwts
Alabama and Louisiana
3,182
California
7,048
Colorado,Oklahoma,
and Kansas
10,184
Florida, Georgia,
and South Carolina
4,791
Idaho and Montana
2,879
Illinois, Indiana,
and Wisconsin
8,531
Iowa and Nebraska
2,947
Kentucky and Tennessee 4,039
Maryland and Virginia
2,980
Michigan
1,960
Minnesota
7,628
Missouri
5,865
New Jersey and New York 6,703
North Carolina
2,594
North Dakota
5,906
Ohio
5,414
Oregon, Utah,
and Washington
4,445
Pennsylvania
5,720
Texas
4,709

Second quarter 2012
Milling
Production Operating capacity
1,000 cwts rate 1,000 cwts

110.5%
82.1%

37,400
111,500

3,155
6,975

111.0%
82.5%

37,400
111,300

3,075
7,086

106.8%
84.9%

37,400
108,400

81.0%

163,200

9,777

78.8%

163,200

10,535

83.8%

163,200

95.6%
98.5%

65,100
37,950

4,557
2,710

95.0%
94.0%

63,100
37,950

4,572
2,835

94.1%
97.0%

63,100
37,950

89.8%
86.6%
106.0%
77.6%
87.2%
91.7%
87.9%
88.2%
64.3%
91.1%
90.6%

123,400
44,200
49,500
49,850
29,200
108,000
86,685
98,750
52,400
84,200
77,650

8,359
2,879
3,919
3,035
1,848
7,458
5,895
6,655
3,132
5,303
5,972

89.1%
82.8%
104.2%
90.0%
83.8%
90.9%
94.7%
88.5%
78.6%
88.1%
101.2%

123,400
45,720
49,500
44,350
29,020
108,000
81,900
98,950
52,400
79,200
77,650

8,010
2,923
3,864
2,547
1,943
7,624
5,126
7,508
3,044
4,780
5,313

87.9%
83.0%
101.4%
74.6%
84.4%
91.7%
81.3%
98.5%
75.5%
78.2%
88.9%

118,400
45,720
49,500
44,350
29,900
108,000
81,900
98,950
52,400
79,400
77,650

87.2%
83.5%
89.8%

66,160
89,000
68,096

4,012
5,521
4,629

79.8%
81.6%
89.4%

66,160
89,000
68,095

3,852
5,635
4,675

70.3%
82.2%
87.1%

71,160
89,000
69,746

All other states (Arizona, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts)
2,235
93.9%
30,900

2,098

89.3%

30,900

2,302

96.8%

30,900

88.4% 1,457,195

97,247

Total

99,759

87.9% 1,473,141

97,888

86.7% 1,457,026

Source: Veris

34 / August 6, 2013 Milling & Baking News

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