Milling & Baking News - December 24, 2013 - 29

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was forecast at 8 million tonnes in
2014-15, the same as in 2013-14, and
was projected to rise slowly to 9
million tonnes in 2018-19.
"Industrial use of wheat is projected to edge higher, but it is expected to stay a small proportion
(about 3%) of total consumption,"
the I.G.C. said. "In the E.U., the
share of biofuels in the transportation sector is scheduled to reach
10% by 2020, although there were
recent proposals to limit the rise to
6%, which is close to current levels."
The I.G.C. forecast world trade
in wheat in 2014-15 at 138 million
tonnes, down 4 million tonnes from
the forecast for the current year. Exports were projected to rise in subsequent years of the outlook and
reach 148 million tonnes in 2018-19.
"A modest fall in trade is projected
for 2014-15, mainly due to a return to
more normal levels of imports by China, as its purchases were boosted by a
poor quality local harvest in 2013-14,"
the I.G.C. said. "Thereafter, world

wheat trade is expected to increase
by around 1.9% annually. Higher demand will mainly come from developing countries in Asia and Africa,
where rising per capita food use and
relatively fast population growth will
boost import needs. Imports for feed
manufacture are likely to rise, with
volumes dependent on relative pricing to other grains."
The I.G.C. noted Egyptian imports should continue to rise in the
five-year outlook period, but annual increases were expected to be
capped by efforts to boost domestic
productivity.
"While China is expected to import regular amounts for blending
with local output, purchases are
projected to be much smaller than
the unusually high level seen in
2013-14," the I.G.C. continued. "Recently burdensome stocks in India
could be lowered at the assumed
rates of production and consumption growth, potentially leading to
more frequent imports."

Prospects for world flour exports improve,
but outgo well below all-time record
LONDON - Prospects for world
flour exports in 2013-14 once again
improved in new quarterly estimates
just issued by the International Grains
Council. The Council raised its forecast of world flour trade this July-June
year to 12,880,000 tonnes of wheat
equivalent, up 70,000 tonnes from the
prior projection and 4% above 2012-13
shipments of 12,280,000 tonnes.
Recovery in 2013-14 global flour
trade also reversed the 15% fall in
global exports that occurred in 2012-13
when the aggregate fell to 12,380,000
tonnes of wheat equivalent. The flour
trade drop in that year followed flour
exports rising in 2011-12 to a historymaking peak of 14,560,000. The latter
on a flour basis was equal to more
than 230 million cwts.
Although well below the 2011-12 record, world flour shipments in 2013-14
appeared in line to be the third largest. The second largest was 12,946,000
tonnes of flour in wheat equivalent
shipped in 2009-10.
The I.G.C. attributed the trade gain
in the current crop year to "a recovery
in availabilities in Kazakhstan." It
added that trade in the previous season had been "unusually low" because
it was "constrained by a poor wheat
crop in Kazakhstan and the imposition of an import tariff by Indonesia."
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

As a result of its increased wheat
crop, Kazakhstan returned to being the
world's largest flour exporter. Its shipments in 2013-14 were forecast by the
I.G.C. at 3 million tonnes, or nearly 50
million cwts, up 27% from 2,356,000 in
2012-13 and compared with the record
of 3,653,000 tonnes in 2011-12.
Turkey, the world's largest
flour exporter in the prior
season, was expected to rank
second in 2013-14 with an
outgo of 2.6 million tonnes of
wheat equivalent, compared
with 2,567,000 in 2012-13 and
3,013,000 in 2011-12.
With the present estimates, Kazakhstan would account for 23% of world
flour exports and Turkey for 20%.
Among major changes in the export outlook was the prospect for a
sharp drop from Pakistan, estimated at
300,000 tonnes for 2013-14, contrasted
with 800,000 in 2012-13. The Grains
Council attributed this "to greater competition in the Afghan market and a
large rise in wheat imports, indicating
poor domestic availability of milling
quality wheat for flour production."
The Council said Turkey has been
able to maintain its flour exports "despite weaker demand from Indonesia,
its traditional customer." This was offset in part by above average shipments

International

With world wheat supply and demand projected to be largely in balance during the outlook years, world
wheat ending stocks should be nearly
flat. The I.G.C. forecast 2014-15 world
wheat ending stocks at 183 million
tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from the
forecast for the current year. Ending
stocks were projected to rise to 184
million tonnes in each of the next
three years of the outlook and drop
back to 183 million tonnes by 2018-19.
"The world stock-to-use ratio is
set to tighten marginally, to around
25%, slightly lower than the average
of 28% in the preceding five years,"
the I.G.C. said.
The I.G.C. said there would be a
modest increase in aggregate inventories in the major exporting countries
during the five-year outlook period.
"However, they continue to be
somewhat lower than the five-year
average, as stocks in the E.U., the
United States and Russia are expected to remain below previously
higher levels," the I.G.C. said. MBN
to Syria due to that country's smaller
wheat crop and reports that its flour
mills are no longer operating due to the
nation's intense internal fighting.
Three regions, each forecast to export about 1 million tonnes, follow in
flour shipments. These are Argentina,
the European Union in total, and United Arab Emirates.
Once again, the I.G.C. flour trade
data show Uzbekistan as the
largest importer, expected to
take 1.5 million tonnes in
2013-14, against 1,363,000 in
2012-13 and record 1,939,000
in 2011-12.
Iraq maintained its second
import position, forecast to take
1,250,000 tonnes in the current season,
against 1,287,000 in 2012-13.
Indonesia, once a leading flour
importer, saw its takings in the current year cut to 300,000 tonnes. As
recently as 2011-12, it imported
829,000 tonnes and in the preceding
year 1,082,000. Imports were slashed
by the imposition of a 20% duty on
imported flour, and the government
was considering whether to reduce
this duty over three years or to impose quotas on flour imports.
In third place as a flour importer was
Brazil, at 950,000 tonnes, followed by Angola at 700,000 and Tajikistan at 500,000.
In an unusual match, at 400,000
tonnes of exports each, were China,
Russia and the United States. MBN
Milling & Baking News December 24, 2013 / 29

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Milling & Baking News - December 24, 2013

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