Milling & Baking News - February 18, 2014 - 44

Weather Outlook 

Late season dryness in Brazil
trimming production
BY DREW LERNER

Brazil's tremendous summer crop
seems to have slipped into a little stress,
and late season crops are likely to lose
a little yield and quality this month as
relief from dryness is slow in coming.
Brazil planted a huge soybean crop
and had nearly ideal crop development conditions over the majority
of the summer growing season. That
translated into a huge production potential, but along came late January
and early February and suddenly the
rain spigot was turned off. Soil moisture was plentiful in the last days of
January, and when the rainfall first
diminished it was scoffed at as being

too late in the growing season to seriously harm production. But in the ensuing days of early to mid-February it
became clear that a portion of the most
immature crops were indeed suffering
from the lack of moisture.
The problem in Brazil is not just limited to soybeans and corn. The drying
bias has influenced citrus, coffee, cotton, rice and some cocoa. Rainfall in the
first 10 days of February in Brazil was
less than 25% of normal over a huge
amount of farmland from Parana and
Paraguay to Tocantins and western Bahia representing more than two thirds
of the total crop area. January rainfall
was also less than half of normal from
northern São Paulo through the heart
of Minas Gerais to much of Bahia while
areas from Mato Grosso to Goias reported 50% to 75% of normal rainfall.
It is extremely rare for Brazil to experience such a large region of dryness over
such a prolonged period of time, and the
44 / February 18, 2014 Milling & Baking News

impact is likely to have a larger impact
than some might expect. Dryness like
this has occurred a number of times in
the past across the U.S. Midwest in the
month of August. In a few short weeks a
tremendous looking soybean crop may
be reduced significantly in both yield
and quality. Smaller bean sizes are the
normal impact of late season dryness
and bean oil is often lower well below
average. These are expected impacts for
this year's late soybean crop.
Another problem in Brazil relates
to the second season corn crop. Brazil plants two corn crops - one in
the early spring and the other in midsummer, often immediately following

the early soybean harvest. This year's
early corn likely performed well in
the favorable rainfall and temperature
environment that prevailed from October through early January. The crop
likely has yielded well, and the recent
dryness has supported early short-season varieties. The longer main season
corn crop may be filling and maturing
and may suffer a little decline in quality and yield because of late season
dryness. The second season corn crop,
however, is normally planted late in
January and February.
The lack of moisture in Brazil likely
has left the ground a little too dry for
planting, germination or emergence of
second season corn. Some producers
will wait for rain, but as each week goes
by without rain the greater the potential is for farmers to decide not to plant.
Eventually, the planting delays will
put crops at risk of moisture shortages
during reproduction (assuming it rains

significantly prior to reproduction) and
for southern producers it raises the potential for frost and freezes to negatively
impact the crop prior to full maturation.
Most of the longer range forecast models have suggested an increased likelihood of showers and thunderstorms
would occur in late February, but rainfall
might still be lighter than usual. A continuation of below average precipitation
for crops that need a general soaking of
rain and that already are running too dry
does not bode well for production.
Again, the problem is not just a corn
and soybean issue. It is likely to adversely affect sugarcane significantly
with reduced cane heights and lower
production because of the situation
and coffee cherry sizes will be greatly
reduced and quality lowered, changing the outlook for consumer prices
after this year's crop is harvested. Brazil has the world's largest coffee crop
and a tremendous sugarcane crop, and
both are vulnerable to some losses.
World Weather, Inc. believes improvement in rainfall will occur before February comes to an end, but
it will leave much more desired, and
the prospects for many crops will be
turned lower because of the situation.
Soybeans may be least affected, with
the second season corn crop, coffee
and sugarcane at the top of the list of
potential production losers.
Argentina weather favorable
In the meantime, Argentina had
its weather related issues earlier this
summer. Weather conditions in recent
weeks have trended much more favorable with timely rainfall helping to
rebound crop development. Soybeans
were never hurt by heat and dryness as
severely as early season corn and sunseed. The early crops never recovered
from the stress and production is definitely down. Soybeans, however, were
planted after the first wave of hot, dry,
weather and were stressed for a little
while in late December and early January, but have seen timely rainfall since
then that has reinforced production.
The outlook for Argentina weather
still is looking mostly good for the
next couple of weeks. There may be
a new bout of drier weather a little
later in the growing season, but it
should not have a tremendous impact
on production potentials since crops
will be more advanced in their development by the time the next bout of
drying has an impact.
Declines in U.S. wheat conditions
In addition to weather trends in
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - February 18, 2014

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