Milling & Baking News - May 27, 2014 - 42

Weather Outlook 

Late May U.S. weather change to
benefit wheat, corn
BY DREW LERNER

KANSAS CITY - Weather pattern
changes in the United States during
the last week of May promise to bring
relief to literally months of moisture
and temperature stress that has managed to whittle the size of this year's
high quality hard red winter wheat
down considerably. The last week of
May will bring on some much needed
rain in the central and southern Plains,
and whether the rain event is a fluke
or not there is likely to be a short-term
improvement to small grains produced in the central Plains.
Much of the anticipated rain event

expected to lose dominance in the
spring of 2014, but it obviously did
not. The pattern brought record setting cold to the Plains, Midwest and
eastern states during the middle
part of May, adding to the problems
of hard red winter wheat as well as
raising issues with the planting and
establishment of spring and summer
crops from the northern Plains into
the Midwest.
Cold weather has an impact
In hard red winter wheat country,
the cold weather had a significant impact, but it was not the first time tem-

Jan. 1 to May 19, 2014
per cent of normal
precipitation

in the central and southern Plains will
come too late to save this year's crop
entirely. Most of the wheat in Texas
and Oklahoma already has advanced
too far to bolster yields, but that is not
the case in Kansas, Nebraska or Colorado. An improvement in crop quality
is still possible in the southern U.S.
Plains while yield and quality may be
improved in the central Plains.
Mid-May weather in the central and
eastern United States was dominated
by unseasonably cold temperatures
and occasional rain in the Midwest,
lower Mississippi River Basin and
southeastern states. The rainfall was
significant, but not any more so than
that which occurs during many spring
seasons. Many producers complained
about the wet conditions, but it was
not really the fault of the rain as much
as it was the fault of temperatures.
A very old repeating cycle in the
atmosphere has been responsible
for the past eight months of colderthan-usual weather. The pattern was
42 / May 27, 2014 Milling & Baking News

peratures turned cold in the Plains.
Drought had reached such intensity
that desert like characteristics developed in the central and southern
Plains. In the desert, relative humidity is so low that temperatures often
would rise and fall 30 to 50 degrees
Fahrenheit on some days. That kind
of a diurnal temperature pattern in the
Plains has not occurred, but huge temperature swings did occur from one
day to the next. Extreme highs in the
90s to over 100 degrees Fahrenheit occurred on a few occasions during midMay and just a few days later, after a
strong cold front moved through the
region, temperatures bottomed out below freezing. That is how some of the
wheat crop was damaged.
Damage was reported in late April
and during mid-May as this kind
of scenario played out across the
drought stricken central and southern
Plains. Similar surges of cold weather
occurred last winter that brought bitter cold temperatures into hard red

winter wheat country without much
snow on the ground, resulting in some
winterkill conditions. More recently
the cold occurred while crops were
approaching and entering reproduction, which also damaged some of the
production potentials.
Finally, in the last week of May there
will be a notable switch in weather
patterns. The change was expected to
bring 10 days of much warmer temperatures and a change in weather
patterns so that the water-logged
Midwest and lower Mississippi River
Basin get a chance to dry out while
crop areas in the central and southern
Plains get some badly needed rain.
No weather pattern of potential
change could have more meaning
than that advertised for the central
and southern Plains. Most of the
southern Plains reported less than half
of normal rainfall during the first five
months of 2014, and drought has prevailed in many areas since 2010. Some
areas have reported dryness dating
back even further in time.
Warmer temperatures ahead?
Changes in weather across North
America in late May will bring much
warmer temperatures to most of the
U.S. Plains, Midwest and southeastern states as well as Canada's Prairies
- which also have been quite cold
in recent weeks. In addition to those
changes, rain will vary significantly
across the central and southern Plains
with sufficient amounts to offer shortterm relief from persistent dryness.
The change will bolster topsoil moisture, but for how long?
Drought events that have prevailed
as long as this one has will not go
away overnight. It will take repetitive rain events over multiple months
to restore soil moisture to normal and
that will not be an easy task with summer approaching quickly. Rainfall
during the typical summer season is
not great enough to counter evaporation, and that suggests the rain that
falls in late May will be welcome and
should bring on some short-term relief
from drought, but with temperatures
getting to the 80s and 90s Fahrenheit
on a more frequent basis in coming
weeks most of the moisture will be lost
to evaporation.
The hope is that enough rain will
fall in late May to lift topsoil moisture
in support of better wheat reproductive and filling conditions. The crop
cannot fully recover its production
potential because of the lateness of
the season, but some improved yield
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