Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 12

Business

Durum prices propped up by short crops,
poor quality and uncertain logistics
KANSAS CITY - Durum millers and
pasta manufacturers may not see significant relief from historically high
cash durum prices for the next several
weeks or perhaps even for the rest of
the crop year. Durum millers pointed
to a "witches brew" - smaller crops
in both the United States and Canada,
subpar quality in those crops and uncertain rail service with the approach
of winter - that they indicated may
continue to underpin cash durum
prices at the highest levels since 2008,
a year of short supplies of wheat and
durum worldwide when Chicago durum prices pushed above $26.50 a bu.
The price of choice milling hard amber durum at the Chicago gateway in
the latest week was quoted at a nominal $17.50 a bu. This was down $2.50
a bu from a few weeks earlier. The
Chicago price was quoted at a nominal $20 a bu for six consecutive weeks
and sometimes traded well above that
level before the recent decline, which
was attributed to an improvement in
rail service that allowed mills to replenish inventories and fill pipelines.
Mills viewed the improved rail service as a window of opportunity to
build stocks and feared that window
may easily close in the next few weeks
should weather turn anywhere near as
bad as last winter.
Indeed, it was poor railroad service
that was the principal prop to strong
durum prices since last winter. But
now, even if the improved rail service
were to be maintained in the coming
months, a prospect few see as likely,
durum prices would be expected to
remain high because Canada and the
United States harvested smaller crops
than in recent years, and the quality of
both crops was badly below average.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated U.S. durum production
in 2014 at 53.1 million bus, down 8%
from 58 million bus in 2013. The crop
was the smallest since 47 million bus
in 2011 and compared with the recent
five-year average outturn at 79.6 million bus.
Canadian durum production in
2014 was 4.8 million tonnes, down
26% from 6.5 million tonnes in 2013
and compared with 4.6 million tonnes
in 2012.
Not only was the U.S. crop much
smaller than average, its quality fell
far below what the market had come
to expect in recent years.
12 / January 6, 2015

Milling & Baking News

The U.S. Durum Wheat Regional
Quality Report for 2014 - a joint
project of U.S. Wheat Associates, the
North Dakota Wheat Commission,
the Montana Wheat and Barley Committee and North Dakota State University Plant Science Department -
indicated the northern Plains durum

crop averaged a No. 2 amber durum,
down from a No. 1 hard amber durum
in 2013 and as the five-year average,
with a greater-than-normal variance
in quality across the crop.
"A large portion of the crop is No.
2 grade or better, but due to untimely
rains during harvest, a greater-thannormal share of the crop fell below
the 75% vitreous kernel level for hard
amber durum," the report said. "Only
50% of the crop remained in the No.
2 hard amber durum or better grade
and subclass compared with 82% in
2013 with a much larger percentage
falling into the durum subclass (less
than 60% vitreous kernels)."
The average test weight of the
northern Plains crop was 59 lbs per
bu (which deprived the crop of a
No. 1 grade, which requires 60 lbs),
down from both last year and the
five-year average. Distribution of test
weight showed 28% of the crop had
test weight higher than 60 lbs per bu
compared with 83% in 2013. Average
damaged kernels were 0.8%, up from
0.2% in 2013 and slightly higher than
the five-year average, reflective of
higher Fusarium and wheat midge
pressures in parts of the region. Due to

Fusarium pressure, average vomitoxin
values for the crop were 2.1 parts per
million, up from 1.02 p.p.m. in 2013
and only 0.69 p.p.m. for the five-year
average. The report indicated some
portions of the crop had very high levels of vomitoxin, but that durum will
be consigned to feed channels, if the
vomitoxin content isn't so high as to
preclude its use there as well.
Crop average vitreous kernel content was 74%, down from 85% in 2013
and as the five-year average.
"Distributions show a more extreme
range in vitreous kernels in 2014," the
report said. "Although two-thirds of
the crop is above the hard amber durum threshold of 75% vitreous kernels,
only 24% of the crop is above 90% vitreous compared with 65% last year.
About 15% of the crop is below 60%
vitreous in 2014 compared with just
3% in 2013."
The crop average falling number
was 276 seconds, lower than the 2013
and the five-year average level of 370
seconds. One-half of the crop had falling number values between 200 and
300 seconds with one third of the crop
above 300 seconds.
"Buyers will find wide values in the
market for the 2014 durum crop produced in the northern United States
due to the challenges from adverse
weather," the quality report said.
"Variability in key parameters such
as vitreous kernels, falling number,
protein and DON (vomitoxin) will
require buyers to carefully evaluate
the importance of each factor for their
end-use needs. Premium contract
specifications will command premium
prices, but good value can be obtained
from large portions of the crop with
diligent contracts specifications and
communication with sellers."
Often, when strong quality durum
is in short supply in the United States,
U.S. durum millers are able to look to
Canada, but this year, Canadian durum quality may be every bit as poor
as that of the U.S. crop, or even worse,
in some estimations. At the same time,
the U.S.D.A. on Dec. 10 forecast U.S.
durum imports in 2014-15 at a record
65 million bus, the vast majority of
which will be from Canada.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
recently hiked its forecast for farm
gate durum prices for the current
crop year to C$305@335 a tonne from
C$255@285.
"The average grade quality of the
Canadian durum crop is significantly
lower than that of 2013-14, and the past
five-year average," the agriculture
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com


http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015

Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015
Stock Market Analysis - Analysts generally guarded toward grain-based foods shares going into 2015
GEAPS/K-State offering distance education program for flour milling industry
Late News - Mayo Schmidt opts not to join Louis Dreyfus
Editorial - A publishing company on the move
Late News
Business - General Mills’ executive voices confidence in Cheerios
First Watch Restaurants expands with Bread & Company acquisition
Shick USA awarded for company growth
Asian food brands gaining ground in packaged food industry
ADM to build I.T. center within Wild campus in Kentucky
Ardent Mills donating bread loaves to fight hunger
Durum prices propped up by short crops, poor quality and uncertain logistics
In weak grain prices, singularities to conditions in late 1990s seen
Cargill planning layoff of 210 workers in Memphis in February
Financial Results - Promotional incentives prove successful at Krispy Kreme
Dunkin’ Brands lowers financial expectations for 2015
Education and Research - General Mills files patents for gluten-free doughs
Industry Activities - K-State/GEAPS partnership described as key to program growth
A.S.B. names product contest finalists
International - China approves Syngenta’s G.M.O. corn trait
Nidera acquires terminal in port at Black Sea
Donut Update - Hostess return, croissant donuts highlight exciting year in donuts
Washington - Congress eases whole grain and sodium requirements in school meals
N.G.F.A. commends higher fee to improve river locks
People - Karen Seaberg succeeds father as chair of MGPI board
Michael Caughlan named president and c.o.o. at McKeany-Flavell
Paul Baltzer joins Flowers in media relations role
Merchandising - Post bringing Great Grains brand beyond cereal aisle
Quaker introducing new oatmeal products
Supplier Innovations
Ingredient Market Trends - Rail shipping better than expected — so far
Ingredient Week
Classifieds
Marketplace Business Network
Ad Index
Archive
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Late News - Mayo Schmidt opts not to join Louis Dreyfus
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 2
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 3
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 4
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 5
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 6
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Editorial - A publishing company on the move
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Late News
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 9
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Shick USA awarded for company growth
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Ardent Mills donating bread loaves to fight hunger
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Durum prices propped up by short crops, poor quality and uncertain logistics
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Cargill planning layoff of 210 workers in Memphis in February
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Dunkin’ Brands lowers financial expectations for 2015
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Education and Research - General Mills files patents for gluten-free doughs
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Industry Activities - K-State/GEAPS partnership described as key to program growth
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - A.S.B. names product contest finalists
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 18
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 19
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 20
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 21
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 22
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 23
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Nidera acquires terminal in port at Black Sea
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 25
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Donut Update - Hostess return, croissant donuts highlight exciting year in donuts
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 27
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - N.G.F.A. commends higher fee to improve river locks
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Paul Baltzer joins Flowers in media relations role
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Quaker introducing new oatmeal products
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 31
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Supplier Innovations
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Ingredient Market Trends - Rail shipping better than expected — so far
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Ingredient Week
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 35
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 36
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 37
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 38
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 39
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 40
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 41
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Classifieds
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Marketplace Business Network
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 44
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Ad Index
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - Archive
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 47
Milling & Baking News - January 6, 2015 - 48
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