Milling & Baking News - July 21, 2015 - 33

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spring, raising some concern over early corn production and some wheat
yields. Sunflowerseed planting also
may be affected, but late corn and soybeans may be planted with slightly
better crop weather.
Indonesia and Malaysia coffee and
cocoa yields will be down because of
less-than-usual rainfall in 2016, and the
archipelago also may experience a poor
rice and sugarcane harvest. Other crops
will be negatively impacted, but to a
lesser degree of significance, including
oil palm, coconut and rubber.
Eastern Australia is expecting some
trouble with spring rainfall. Traditional El Niño events may reduce rainfall
across eastern parts of the nation's
wheat, barley and canola region, and
that will be the case again this year.
However, because of better-thanexpected establishment this autumn
and winter, crops will have a little better staying power when the ground
trends a little dry. Production losses
in 2015-16 should not be as great as
those in years past, despite the strong
El Niño event.
Similarly, India's monsoon will run
into some greater dryness in August

and early September, but crops likely
will be affected less severely than in past
El Niño events. Crops in India are expected to be better established because
of favorable June and late July rainfall,
but some stress will evolve as the reproductive season evolves, and that is
when production cuts will be possible.
Eastern China tends to experience
less-than-usual rain in traditional El
Niño events, and the same may occur this year, but World Weather, Inc.
sees the precipitation in eastern China
more timely, offering greater efficiency
in crops absorbing the moisture and
translating into the usable energy for
favorable production.
Most of the media reports likely
will credit this year's impressively
wet weather bias in the U.S. Midwest and central and southern Plains
in May, June and July to El Niño. But
El Niño only contributed to some of
the already excessive rainfall pattern
that was already in place, especially
in May and early June. Some of the
heavy rain in June was associated with
Tropical Storm Bill, which cannot be
blamed on El Niño. The wet weather
that followed Bill probably should be

Weather Outlook

attributed to El Niño. The milder summer weather in the U.S. Midwest also
will be attributable to the El Niño
event, and some of the dryness in
western Canada this season also will
be attributable to El Niño.
World Weather, Inc. believes when
this El Niño event is over it will be
more closely related to the 1987 event
with less drought severity in India.
North America weather will be more
significantly altered by El Niño during late autumn and winter with extremely important drought relief for
California expected. Additional wet
weather also will occur in the southern United States along with dry and
warm biased conditions for Canada's
Prairies. the northern U.S. Plains, Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region relative to normal years. MBN

Drew Lerner, president
of World Weather, Inc., is
a contributing editor at
Sosland Publishing Co.

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Milling & Baking News XJuly 21, 2015 / 33

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Milling & Baking News - July 21, 2015

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