Milling & Baking News - August 18, 2015 - 32

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32 / August 18, 2015 XMilling & Baking News

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in July and up 54% from the average
trade estimate of 305 million bus.
"The reports were supply bearish and
demand bearish," said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities, Inc., West
Des Moines, Iowa, and they caught commodity funds with large long positions
going into the report "leaning on the
wrong side" of the market. Mr. Roose
said one of the biggest surprises was the
U.S.D.A.'s soybean yield estimate moving up to 46.9 bus an acre from the 46
bus per acre forecast in July, making it
the second-highest yield on record.
Mr. Roose said the reports made a
decisive statement that strong production in the drier western Corn Belt -
states such as Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota - was going to more than make
up for production issues in the wet
eastern Corn Belt. Regional tightness
in supplies may keep the soybean basis strong in the East, he said, but shipments from other parts of the United
States - or even possibly from Brazil
- likely will keep the cash basis at acceptable levels. And large world supplies of soybeans will keep a damper
on prices for a significant period.
"Soybeans do better in dry years,"
noted Paul Meyers, vice-president,
commodity analysis, Foresight Commodity Services, Inc., Naperville, Ill.
The U.S.D.A. resurveyed soybean
acreage in Arkansas, Kansas and Missouri. Mr. Roose contended the U.S.D.A.
also should have resurveyed Illinois,
where he said about 400,000 soybean
acres went unplanted this year.
The U.S.D.A. reports couldn't address the quality of the crop, which
may be a problem. Bill Wiebold, University of Missouri extension specialist, said he thought Missouri's soybeans, especially hard hit by too much
rain, which increased disease and
damage, were likely to be sold only at
discounted prices this fall.
The U.S.D.A. confirmed bearish sentiment on exports, lowering its 2015-16
soybean forecast by 50 million bus to
1,725 million bus. Market experts expected exports to be relatively sluggish
through the year because the dollar
was likely to stay strong, especially in
relation to Chinese and South American currencies. Brazilian soybeans
were being eagerly bought by China.
The rugged ride for the soybean
market, shown in futures' price volatility, may not be over for months. Despite additional information becoming
available on soybean yields and acreage, many uncertainties about the crop
- especially its quality - won't really
be known until the fall harvest. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.kingflour.com http://www.lallemandbaking.com http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - August 18, 2015

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