Milling & Baking News - October 27, 2015 - 30

Weather Outlook X

Delayed Brazil rainfall raises
crop production issues
BY DREW LERNER

KANSAS CITY - El Niño changes
world weather in many ways, and one
of those ways is to delay the onset of
monsoonal rainfall in South America.
Delay in the arrival of summer rainfall
across northern Brazil occurs periodically with El Niño events and this year's
delayed rainfall has started to cut into
2016 production in two different ways.
First, some early season crops have
been planted later than usual raising
some concern over general yields, and
secondly, the delayed first crop will delay second season corn and cotton planting, possibly forcing reproduction later
in 2016 when rainfall is not as abundant.
Monsoonal rainfall is now officially

be planted, established and developed
quickly enough to allow enough time
to harvest and plant the second crop
before seasonal rains end in April.
Planting of second season crops normally occurs in January and February,
leaving just enough time for crops to
get into reproduction before seasonal
rainfall ends.
Psychological warning flags raised
Delaying the start of first season
crops by a few weeks raises a psychological warning flag that the second crop may not be planted quickly
enough to take full advantage of late
season monsoonal rainfall. In many
cases, sufficient soil moisture remains

Average 7-day
topsoil moisture
ended Oct. 18, 2015
late. Delayed rainfall in September
is not as great of an issue as delayed
rainfall in early October. Most of the
delayed rainfall is a psychological
impact more than a serious play on
production - at least for early season
crops. Way back in the "olden days"
when Brazilian farmers produced a
single crop of soybeans or corn, a delay in the start of annual rainfall was
not a big deal. In most cases, when the
initial rains were late producers just
planted later. In most cases the long
growing season would generate sufficient rainfall later in the year to support the late planted crops and production was rarely seriously hurt by
the delayed start to seasonal rainfall.
The times have changed. Producers
in Brazil have recognized their gift of
having such a long growing season
and they have learned to plant two
crops - usually corn and soybeans,
one following the other. In order to be
successful in two plantings rain has to
begin in late September or early October so that the first season crops can
30 / October 27, 2015 XMilling & Baking News

in the ground to support second season
crops that get planted late, but there
have been some exceptional years in
which monsoonal rainfall is both late
in starting and early in withdrawing.
That is the fear facing many producers
today. But, there is no serious sign that
monsoonal rainfall will end early.
In the third week of October planting
progress reports suggested this year's
planting was ahead of last year's pace.
So, does that make a problem for 2016
production? Well, yes and no. The
planting pace is ahead of average this
year because of ideal planting weather
in portions of Sao Paulo, Parana, and
some immediate neighboring areas.
The delayed rainfall, excessive heat
and dryness has been concentrated
on Mato Grosso and Goias, where
planting is behind average and where
planting of second season crops, like
corn and cotton, may be negatively affected in 2016.
World Weather, Inc. applies a rule for
late starts to monsoonal rainfall. In most
cases delayed rainy season conditions

usually only last three to four weeks,
and Brazil is quickly approaching that
amount of time. Already some of the
computer forecast models have suggested improving rainfall in November.
The improvement is likely to occur a
little erratically with some of the crop
regions getting more rain than others,
but the tide is turning and changes are
forthcoming in November. Much improved rainfall is expected, and that will
last through the first half of December.
There is still some potential for dryness to evolve in southern and western
parts of Brazil in late December and
early January. That often occurs in El
Niño events of significance, and a close
watch on rainfall during that period is
certainly warranted. If dryness evolves
in the southwest during that time period the additional concern over rainfall
during reproduction might just drift

Per cent of normal
rainfall for Sept. 20
to Oct. 19, 2015
grain and oilseed prices a little higher.
The situation is worth watching, but
there is no guarantee that the drier bias
will be significant enough to seriously
harm production in 2016.
Ukraine, Russia and U.S. wheat
In the meantime, a quick update is
warranted on wheat production areas
around the world. Concern over dryness in Ukraine, portions of southern
Russia, the U.S. central and southern
Plains, U.S. Pacific Northwest and
Australia recently helped fuel a little
ride higher in the small grains market prices. However, recent weather
trends have begun to buck the trends
of September and early October.
Significant rain has fallen recently in
hard red winter wheat country, easing
dryness that was a growing concern
from Colorado and western Kansas to
central Oklahoma and north-central
Texas. Most of these crop areas were
planted adequately, but germination
and emergence conditions were not
the best. Significant rain was needed
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - October 27, 2015

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