Milling & Baking News - December 8, 2015 - 32

Export and Trade Issues X

Flour trade forecast for 2015-16
raised to near record by I.G.C.
LONDON - According to the latest
revision by the International Grains
Council, global trade in wheat flour
in 2015-16 will be near to setting a
new record in trade volume. The
latest export estimate by the I.G.C.
places global flour ship ments at
14,530,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent, up 1,020,000 from the prior
forecast. The latest data reflect upward adjustments for many of the
major exporting nations.
At 14,530,000 tonnes, global flour
exports would be nearly the same
as the all-time record of 14,560,000
tonnes set in 2011-12. Since that peak
was set, flour trade has not exceeded 14 million tonnes. It was only in
the late 1990s that flour trade first
reached 10 million tonnes.
The newly-revised estimate of
this year 's flour trade volume was
up 5% from 13,830,000 tonnes in the
previous crop season. This is one of

13% increase to 3,975,000 tonnes in
wheat equivalent as its likely outgo
in 2015-16. That total is up
420,000 tonnes from the
previous estimate for
2015-16 and compares
with 3,531,000 tonnes
shipped in 2014-15.
Turkey's
shipments, representing
27% of global flour
trade, were a record
high for that country.
The I.G.C. observed
that "a record domestic harvest contributed to rapid early season shipments by Turkey."
The second ranking flour exporter
in 2015-16 was again Kazakhstan,
with its shipments projected to reach
2,650,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent, against 2,385,000 in 2014-15
and 2,762,000 in 2013-14. Exports
by Kazakhstan, representing 18% of

World flour exports
(includes durum semolina)

1,000 tonnes of grain

15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000
3,000
1990-91 1993-94 1996-97 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06 2008-09 2011-12 2014-15
Source: International Grains Council

the largest annual increases in flour
shipments in world markets.
In compiling its data on global
flour exports, the I.G.C. does not
include durum semolina. Such shipments were separately estimated at
400,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent
in 2015-16, compared with 390,000
in 2014-15 and 369,000 in 2013-14.
In commenting on the near record
flour export volume in 2015-16, the
I.G.C. said, "Attractive prices are
seen underpinning demand, but
conflict in some countries is also
contributing to higher purchases."
Turkey, which has been among
global leaders in flour exports in
recent years, stood out by posting a
32 / December 8, 2015 XMilling & Baking News

the world total, were down 150,000
tonnes from the previous estimate
of its shipments.
Wheat flour exports by the European Union in 2015-16 were forecast
at 900,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent, nearly the same as in the two
previous crop years. The E.U. share
of total flour trade was 6%.
Most other exporters showed an
increase in shipment expectations in
the past quarter. U.S. clearances were
placed at 400,000 tonnes, up 50,000
tonnes for the quarter and also up
from 2014-15 shipments of 388,000.
China's flour export total was
also 400,000 tonnes, against 220,000
in the previous crop season.

Pakistan also was expected to
ship 400,000 tonnes currently, the
same as in 2014-15 but half of its
outgo of 800,000 in 2012-13.
India was not maintaining its
export position, with likely shipments of 625,000 tonnes,
up 400,000 from a quarter
ago, but compared with
830,000 in 2014-15.
Russia was projected to ship 300,000
tonnes and Ukraine
400,000,
against
200,000 and 364,000,
respectively, in 2014-15.
Iraq continued its lead
among flour importers. Its
likely takings in 2015-16 were
raised to 2,200,000 tonnes, contrasted with just 1,500,000 a quarter ago.
Its flour imports in 2014-15 were
1,500,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent.
The I.G.C. said that flour imports
by both Iraq and Syria, the latter
likely to import 500,000 tonnes,
were affected by internal strife negatively impacting domestic milling
industries.
Afghanistan, which had been the
leading flour importer in recent
years, was likely to import 1,400,000
tonnes in 2015-16, the same as in
2014-15. The 2014-15 total imports
set a record for that country.
Uzbekistan, a part of the Former
Soviet Union, maintained its position as a leading flour importer,
with expected takings of 1,200,000
tonnes this crop year, up from
1,140,000 in 2014-15. It imported
1,400,000 tonnes in 2013-14.
In the Western Hemisphere, Brazil continued as the largest flour
importer, its takings in 2015-16 most
recently placed at 500,000 tonnes,
down 100,000 from the previous
estimate. Brazil imported 550,000
tonnes in 2014-15.
U.S. flour imports were forecast at
275,000 tonnes, down from 325,000
in 2014-15.
Flour imports by Africa in 201516 were newly projected at 2,457,000
tonnes, against 2,489,000 in the previous crop year. Angola, likely to
take 600,000 tonnes this season,
continues as the ranking flour importer in Africa. Sudan, expected to
take 400,000 tonnes, holds second
place. No separate data are shown
for Egypt, which at one time was the
world's largest flour importer, but
which has established its own milling industry. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - December 8, 2015

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