Milling & Baking News - January 19, 2016 - 45

X
Edible Oils

million lbs. Total soybean oil supply in
2015-16 was forecast at 24,010 million
lbs, up 115 million lbs from the December projection and up 5% from 22,828
million lbs in 2014-15.
Soybean oil use in the production of
biodiesel in 2015-16 was forecast at 5,500
million lbs, up 100 million lbs from the December projection and up 9% from 5,037
million lbs in 2014-15. Food, feed and industrial use of soybean oil in 2015-16 was
forecast at 14,100 million lbs, up 50 million
lbs from December and up 142 million lbs
from 2014-15. Soybean oil exports in 201516 were forecast unchanged from December at 2,300 million lbs, which compared
with 2,014 million lbs in 2014-15.
Soybean oil carryover on Sept. 30,
2016, was forecast at 2,110 million lbs,
down 35 million lbs from the December
outlook but up 16% from 1,820 million
lbs in 2015.
Palm oil prices edged lower with considerations of heavy oil stocks in Malaysia and Indonesia and lackluster export
demand outweighing concerns over
potential production losses to El Niño in
those countries. Production already was
declining seasonally. MBN

Bookings of edible oils were limited
last week. A weaker tone was evident in
most pricing with a few exceptions.
Soybean oil prices declined. Soybean oil
futures were pulled narrowly higher by
gains in the rest of the soy complex. Gains
were less convincing in soybean oil compared with soybean and soybean meal futures in part because soybean oil in particular bore the weight of weak crude oil futures. The U.S. Department of Agriculture
on Jan. 12 lowered its estimate of the 2015
soybean crop by 51 million bus, which
lowered supply in 2015-16 and helped
push the soy complex higher. Meanwhile,
the cash basis on soybean oil slipped a
quarter-point, providing an offset.
While the U.S.D.A. lowered its 2015
soybean production number, the 2015-16
soybean crush forecast was unchanged
at 1,890 million bus. Despite this, the
soybean oil production forecast for 201516 was raised 75 million lbs, to 21,925
million lbs, because of the U.S.D.A.'s
determination oil yields per bu crushed
would be higher than earlier expected.
Additionally, soybean oil imports for
2015-16 were raised 40 million lbs, to 265

Spot soybean oil

Chicago soybean oil futures
Bulk in tank cars, cents per lb
Jan. 15
- Change from -
Delivery
close
Jan. 8
Dec. 31
March
29.65
+.01
-1.10
May
29.86
-.02
-1.10
July
30.10
-.04
-1.08
August
30.16
-.04
-1.05
September 30.21
-.05
-1.01
October
30.18
-.10
-1.02

Crude soybean oil
Delivery
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

50.00

40.00

40.00
35.00

36.00

30.00
25.00
J

32.00

Previous Year

Current Year

August 12,

on
Trade focuses

Jan. 15
Soybean oil,
Decatur
Loose lard, Chicago
Edible tallow,
Chicago
Cottonseed oil,
Miss. PBSY
Palm oil, ports
Palm kernel oil,
ports
Coconut oil
Peanut oil,
Southeast
Corn oil, Decatur
Sunﬂowerseed oil,
Midwest
Canola oil, Midwest

- Change from - Year
Jan. 8 Dec. 31 ago

29.00
24.00

-.50
-1.50

-1.00
-1.00

34.25
31.50

24.50

+1.00

+4.00 31.75

46.25
29.50

-1.25
-1.00

-3.25
-1.25

47.00
38.75

34.75
53.50

-.25
-1.50

-4.25
+.25

41.50
58.00

55.50
40.50

-1.00
+1.25

-1.00 55.00
+1.25 35.00

58.00
33.75

-
+.25

-4.00
-1.50

65.00
39.75

2015

to
s-to-use ratio
the stock for next year,
boosting
16 by 8%,
August 12, 2015
and to 14.6% prescribed in
this year
sweetener
15.1% for the 13.5% minimum ment. The
ts
U.S. and global
e
prices from
ension agree ased doboth abov
ol
onal marke
news, data and Company
to incre
Mexico susp
ing
InternatiUnica, Brazil's sugar andJulyethan
harwere due
the U.S.sugar
Sosland Publish
this year
early beet
alf
for
-
from
ges
last-h
stly
chan
of
ly from
BRAZIL
n, said
es for all
uction (mo
ar
ZĞƉŽƌƚ.com
DE
year most
associatio
ucSee ^ǁĞĞƚĞŶĞƌ er market
mestic prod rts, and for next
million tonn weeks last
prod
industry
5.58
Mexico sug .A. in its Aug. 12andWAS
ed
estic
ng
impo
dom
two
endi
n total
for daily sweeten
vest) and
the same
uction
productio
stocks and
he U.S.D
Brazil
news
estic use
24.7% from uction for all of the
beginning
imports. Prod 2015
commentary and
this year
only dom
er
in
up
for
il,
ted
ase
high
ico
Braz
prod
adjus
a slight incre mostly due to new
asts for Mex d 4% for both
on-to-date es, down 10.8% from the
tion with
ted
year. Seas
stocks forec
in
asts.
were adjus
use was raise by 18.5% for
million tonn Ethanol output
uction forec
numbers
Domestic
totaled 27
sugar prices
year.
cane prod were unchanged for
up 37.1%
were cut
and next.
uction,
d beet and cane
r beet and
ng stocks
period last
Brazil was
Prod
asts
Ͳ
refine
suga
of
endi
was
bulk
same
all
forec
year.
ut
U.S.
outp
ͲChangefrom
r use
te 11
years, while 31.5% for next
weeks for Volum
4, Issue
e to-da
U.S. suga
go
-16.
Nearby
d.
and
latest two
agoyeara
r, while year- t two weeks for
and 2015
ůĂŶƚ͕
unchange
week
-15
this year
͘Ž͘ď͘Ɖ
are
earlie
&
were
2014
t12
rts
in
-16
year
lates
s
Augus
both
expo
2015
Rating
but
from a
in the
Ͳϰ͘ϬϬ
- U.S.
imports and
stocks for
a year ago,
ĐĞŶƚƐƉĞƌůď͘
field offices said. good to
Cane crush
ͲϬ͘ϱϬ
use A.
190,616
U.S.D.
beginning
ly and
up 2.6%.
37.4% from
er, state
. The sug6 r supp
ged at 85%
ƚ ϯϯ͘ϬϬͲϯϱ͘ϬϬ
ͲͲ
rd
tonnes, down
"Mexico
2015-1
unchan
il was up
. suga
forD.A
werefrom
2014-15.
Ͳϭ͘ϬϬ
DŝĚǁĞƐƚďĞĞ
poor;
down 0.36%s of
sota and
U.S.
all of Braz
at 836,775 because of an upwa
southtic sugar
poor to very
ϯϴ͘ϬϬͲϰϮ͘ϬϬ
crush was
the keydomes
in the ChanMinne
ooking

from July10%
and 5%From
Ͳϭ͘ϬϬ
tion
in
date
estimated
ued
ges
fair
a
ďĞĞƚη
ed
ump
month
n-tocontin
ͲϬ͘ϱϬ
(81%
nt,
WĂĐŝĮĐ
last
crush
two
seaso
art 2016
for cons
excelle
WASDE.
Aug. From
lates
to excellent
calend
ed
ϯϰ͘ϬϬͲϯϲ͘ϬϬ
and
Aug. 12remain
said.
tonnes from
l mix of cane
deliveries
in the
82% good
From
ŽƵŶƚ͘
July 14-15 and 2% poor
Aug.
U.S.D.A.
ĂŶĞΎ
ar/ethano n was 44%/56%
/59%y activity tons
Nearb
North Dakota
of 2014-15
ŝƚŚϮйĐĂƐŚĚŝƐĐ
the
15-16
41%
week.
ate
(17%)
ϳ͘ϲĐǁ
needs
11
77
es,"
past
fair
was
d
+
й͕ƉůƵƐ
estim
July ), 16% + 92
1,000
,
covere
14-15
year) and mostyear)
central regio
Ύ^ƉŽƚƌĂǁƉůƵƐϳ
million tonn are increased by 192,4per
. having In
week earlier
1,821
to excellent (80%)
/54% lastslow with
last users
ted there 1,810
to 4.441
ed
-16
Raw value
an 85% good
35 + 186 to very poor
traders
(44%/56% ago. Some
weeks (46%
po- sugges
s for 2015
It is assum
(2%);+ Michig
ηĞůŝǀĞƌĞĚ͘
8,800 + 4% +poor
155
54
n-to-date some timeniza
tion com the market
withs the 8,614
futures
"Deliverie
and anged
on tonnes.
Begin. Stock
(14%)
nt (32%),
r Orga of weakn
for the seaso
#11 raw sugar
ess in
4.501 milli umption is unch
4,980
11% +fair
31
45 Wyom
ional Suga
U.S. #16 and
supplies 4,825
ing 3527% +excelle
hint11.50c a lb, downrto nearby
tonnes to
Production
tion of
was11a was
tener cons
consump
3,820 +
The Internat on Aug.
suga
(6%); +and
(10%).
t adding
9
harvesraw
- 113
Beet
beet sman
capita swee at 49.4 kg and that
and 10%
+ 5 fair
price
early King
lb.
3,789 good
from a
as estimated
3,369
-15
site sugar
63% + 38 (58%)
Nearby, cents per
Brazilian
few weeks.
- 125slipped
cane- ratings
Aug. 4. The thec next
from 2014 corn syrup is the samedry weight)."
through Sept. 3,482Louisia
a lb f.o.b. sugar prices Cane
ions
na sugar
1,491
10.34 refined
0.37c from 11 wasover
beet
rtsto 35c a
+8
- 110dry condit
hot
on tonnes,
- and
Impo
high-fructose
to
Ϯϳ
33c
Bulk
1,616
milli
Aug.
due
nt
to
0
11.
on
315
earlier
s.
(1.42
Aug.
price
.
week
Ϯϲ
sourceslightly
good to excelle
d down
T.R.Q
1 +122
0.26c from were adjuste
for 2014-15
425 + 25 of the
crop -rated
cane sugar
and private
ico
Ϯϱ
1,548
-(29%) and 6%
ports, down newswires,30web sitesMidwest with bulk refined
use - Mex
r Prog.
with 63%
fair
Othe
and
Ϯϰ
5
One
31%
+
ly
1,426
f.o.b.
from
15 ),
lb f.o.b.
-15.
a week earlier
Ϯϯ
Compiled
. sugar supp
co
+ 84
(66%
s d to 34c to 36c aoutlbMexi
15 + 5 poor (5%).
U.S.D.A
and from 2014
new
adjuste
0 +132
of old crop
ryprices
in ϮϮ
#11
ges from July
was sold High Tier sup92 13,99
#16
poor to+ very
Ϯϭ
sorast
its -initial stages
it forec
From
proces
DE. Chan
defic
13,906
Top industs 2015
crop
200 t was in 125
-16beet
major
to be ϮϬ
have new
Aug. From
Aug. 12 WAS
Sugar -beet harves
ed dtoits
raise
Ttl Supplysors
raise
- + t expected
expect
ϭϵ
200
n Pool
Aug. From 15-16 July 14-15
proces
Greewas
with 0early harves
sugar
12,01
Green Pool
st but
mil- other
ϭϴ
125
, while
+6
several
- +week.
Exports well as 11,88
July
5 areas,
ast to 4.6
based analy
le shortly

14-15
it forec
11,875 t by next
y to sell aseries
ply availab
Australia837 -190
- report, the ϭϳ
t
- in earnes
sugar
+ 15
ϭϲ
under
Deliv
cropiousl
0 way
tion
al sugar defic
es prev
Actual weigh
831
tonnold
Crop Produc
hadonsome
le before the 11,75In its -August135
il
stillmilli
s
6,000
2015-16 glob
+ 125 beet produc- ϭϱ
ing availab
Food
- sugar
n in Braz
135
Begin. Stock
ϭϰ
0
uctiobecom
U.S.
supply
es from 2.8
5,985
2015
crop
12,21
prod
t
tonn
155
r
30).
new
41
-9% from 2014.
lion
land.
(Sept. Other
ϭϯ
21
5 A. -forecas
year
Thai
U.S.D.
+132
ns of loweof the
Production
-190 +
a anding
155
market
1,780
ϭϮ
sugar for 12,08
,000 tons, up - 0.5
6,992
end ut), Chin
92
on expectatio ol outp
Total Use
- 35
00 acres, ϭϭ
tic beet and cane
tion at+ 34,211
1,821
Imports
ethan
of domes
6,971
carryover
14.6% +1.1 t at 1,144,0
indicateds
ly
Pricing
1,335
, 2016
(increased
+ 61
ted area was forecasstill below last year's ϭϬ
Ending Stock
2015
raisedalso was
Total Supp
ar 2016
Harves+0.8
15.1%
1,370
WASDE
se
st and
raises U.S.2015-1
6 and calend
4,825 +193
- Midwe
from June
4 but
+ 26
Stocks-to-u
U.S.D.A.
lb f.o.b.
its Aug. 12
t at a record
Exports
up slightly
fora2015
35c
4,764 +190
.A. in mostly
frome 201
33c toand
at 5.3%
6,160 +193
coast. Some down 4%Averag
yield was forecas
Use
-4
rs
The U.S.D
-15 by
trade
Domestic
cast level.
ed on the West fore
2014.
6,134 +190
s for 2014
833 - 383
9% efrom ose,
upSom
crop
may be availa36c to 38c deliver
acre,et.
- 0.1
anmark
corn es
ending stock
Total Use
tener
dextr was forecast at
s prices
-6.9
837 - 190 13.5%
large5 volum
sweetons
; 201
ding tion
sorsrican29.9
s
inclu
s sugges
monted
proces
produc
raw sugar future
Ame
- 0.3
broker
h
cwt.
ted
ucts,
com
- 3.7
some
cane
a
5
Nort
Ending Stock
$1
Harves
prod
mͲ
9.0
while
Sugar
201
up from 2014.
#16 Domestic
13.6%
dry
a lb, to the tight end of the
to 6%
ͲChangefro
l)
flat up
was
ease from ble below 33c
offers for received
- 4.9 17.3%
tons,

the top
eeks
,000
S-T-U (tota
s referred
, and0 price
sales at
17.6%
price incr
years
letter
acres, up 3% from
to find 2016
weekĮvew
.)
to make
le oft at
a ued
offer he 32,146a coup
894,70ucts.

t ofansugar
difficult
contin
amoun
ated
teners at
$4.50 a cwt
S-T-U (dom
August12 one
leastwas forecas
prod was forecast at 35.9
ed the
foundItitappearbrok

er indic
ͲϬ͘Ϯϱ
corn swee
of wet
$3.50 to
tight for atareathan those
least range.
ĞŶƚƐƉĞƌůď͘
e yield
one varied
Ϭ͘ϬϬ
beenamong
widely
Averagunav
eteners:
ailable. 2014.
er
offering 2016 racted levels, at price
although
Ϯϰ͘ϱϬ
year
next ose
angreatlast year.
supplies have
imous in
Corn Swe
ͲϬ͘Ϯϲ
to be
cont
for dextr
2015,
ton from2015
ucts were
Julyedwas
up 0.9
ghtend
Ϭ͘ϬϬ
and EŽǀĞŵďĞƌ
appear unan ase from 2015
Dry and
have
per acre,
report for 2014
, althou
t 15% from booked
tener prod
ltural Supply
buyers
Ϯϰ͘ϲϮ
not sors
uctiotnWorld
incre
Agricu

in the past
orn refiners
te to abou
corn swee tons
d
did proces
ͲϬ͘ϭϲ
prod
cwt
of
It
ases
ǇϮϬϭϲ
s
a
equa
recor
n.
corn
foreoffer
Augus
incre
:ĂŶƵĂƌ
ͲϬ͘Ϭϭ
$4.50
its
. and
U.S.D.A.
increases
from thereport,
y-bass ed In
and trading month
lies
thethe
Ϯϰ͘ϲϰ
uct and regioing levels, active
$3.50 to
surve
source
downd4%
tes2.2 bu from
ͲϬ͘Ϭϯ
Spot supp
slow,
August. The
its first
Estima
tener prod
ending
inwere
on bus,
DĂƌĐŚ
Ϭ͘ϬϬ
sugar
down
.A.
Deman
and
Mexico
milli
ctaU.S.
n
6
5
through late ific corn swee ract at the initial offer
acre,
from
ges,
U.S.D
expe
ts
Ϯϰ͘ϴϬ
13,68
shorta 168.8 bus an
at car
Impor The
trade
negotiatio tight
spec
ͲϬ͘ϯϬ
boost ine 2014-1
of box
ratio of
s
a 5.3%
at
U.S. crop
rs to cont
castasts
DĂǇ
to-use
ͲϬ͘Ϭϱ
room for
g on the
s
were abov
es price
stocksa combi
ast thenation
forec
futur
citing
Ϯϰ͘ϴϬ
dependin was a rush by buye with some seeing based on this year' said,
ending
forec
lackastof need
wasthe
an corn
ͲϬ͘ϯϬ
um reand ast,
yieldand
uction forec
ared
prices
stocks
prodship:ƵůǇ
ͲϬ͘Ϭϱ
Average
andslow
stocks forec above the 13.5% minim
appear there trade were mixed lock in supply now customers, it appe higher
crop. esired
yield
Ϯϰ͘ϴϬ
time,
ending 15.1%
to sion agree(well
said -than-d
d. The
same
ͲϬ͘ϭϮ
ing
ld
est.
er corn
harv
At the
suspen
high
^ĞƉƚĞŵďĞƌ
Ϭ͘Ϭϴ
exicogood
cases.recor
one broker in some 2014
ideas in theesting buyers shou restricted to exist
on the
felttrend
rated 70%
U.S.-M
with ato
be to
lower into bysthe
Ϯϰ͘ϵϴ
ly
ed, which
below ts there will
continued
quired
, and along
r state was juste further
n majo
slightly sugges
Mexico
others sugg initial offers most offers may be limit waited too long. ments
tions
expectedon Mexica
EŽǀĞŵďĞƌ
ed from
were
increas
and
s and
in the 18 ment)
. The
to depend crop
s prices
ged and
tends
mers offer coast,
ly if they
two week
to tariff-rate import
supply. With to get competitive
which
doughesstage
sugar future
s to custo corn syrup
9, the corn
mitted supp
nalinincreas
West plun
ties
, 50%
regions.the previous begno
additio
of Aug.
mͲ
#11 World raw
Asthan
most other
opportuni buyers without com major refiners in letter
date.
d from
on Page 2.)
silkin stage
the
-fructose
were
ͲChangefro
in
table
ange
9
more
for
high
(See
three
Aug.
96%
unch
ges
supply
of
,
year.

as crop was
the
eeks
this
llent ratingsThe
ear avera
could leave day, at least three increase and 42%
eekĮvew
s. Two of
se exce
beet crop
and five-yquotas

a week
year earliyeartoago.
thanlast
racted level listed liquid glucoSugar 71% aged
1
August12 onew
As of Mon
$4.50 a cwt
a
Ͳϭ͘ϳϳ
higher
cont
at
near

ly
rose
ƉĞƌůď͘
low
2015
syrup
ͲϬ͘ϮϮ
also
most
valid unchan
Dext
ĞŶƚƐ
to 7-year2014
ϭϬ͘ϱϰ
regular corna cwt increase from cwt increase. One a cwt. Prices were mostly
9% dented,
Ͳϭ͘ϳϵ
Tuesday KĐƚŽďĞƌϮϬϭϱ
a
of the
p1 ober dips 2015 y and again briefly
ͲϬ͘Ϯϳ
Oct
rbysyru
at a $3.50 HFCS at a $4.50 at increases of $3.50 the refiner. Two
ϯϰͲϯϳ
re
ϭϭ͘ϳϰ
Nea
lar corn
a lb Monda
Ͳϭ͘ϲϰ
futu1res:Regu
both days. Pressu t DĂƌĐŚϮϬϭϲ
ϯϳͲϯϵthat level ϯϯͲϯϲ
ar
2014 low of 10.37c above
ͲϬ͘ϭϵ
offered 55% d dextrose syrup 28, depending on
Sug
harves
S list price futures201
5 hit a 7-year
ϭϭ͘ϵϯ
cane
prices
s
liqui

East
settled
HFC
ct
Aug.
Ͳϭ͘ϱϯ
Brazil'
and

ϯϲͲϯϴ
55%
in
or
1
the contra ests, with a rebound ϯϱͲϯϴ
syrup
aw sugar
ghϮϱ͘Ϯϱ
ͲϬ͘ϭϲ
2014
r Aug. 21

er, althou
0.05c to o.25c DĂǇ

S list price
ϭϮ͘Ϭϯ
supplie
ϯϴͲϰϬ
Midw
2015
Ͳϭ͘ϰϲ
down about
nearby
OctobϮϳ͘Ϯϱ
through eithe
in nearby
d :ƵůǇ
ϯϲͲϯϵ
were
Ϯϳ͘ϱϬ
42% HFC
1
ample
Ϯϱ͘Ϯϱ
h

raws
reduce
ͲϬ͘ϭϱ
from
Sout

world
about
2014
rnsƐ͕
Ϯϵ͘ϱϬ
ued to stem
ϭϮ͘Ϯϳ
ϯϵͲϰϭa lb. Conce
spot price
Ϯϳ͘Ϯϱ
For the week
contin
Ͳϭ͘ϯϳ
uting.Ϯϳ͘ϱϬ
2015
͕ǁĞƚďĂƐŝ
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HFCS 42%
West1.30c to 1.80c
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2015
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tion due to the
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sugar producϮϴ͘Ϯϱ been oversh
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sugar deficit haveuing to strugglendinPubli
ETENER
to 25c a lb.
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ϮϬдͲϮϭд
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Sosland
The Sosland Sweete
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with India contin
ys with access
outheast
erage,
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ir recent trading
bution. ©201tures were about
͘ϳϱ

r:
U.S. cash suga

Western points
28.15 @28.40
28.15 @28.40
28.15 @28.40
28.51 @28.76
28.61 @28.86
28.73 @28.98
28.85 @29.10

Edible oils

44.00

45.00

Decatur, Ill.
28.65 @28.90
28.65 @28.90
28.65 @28.90
29.26 @29.51
29.36 @29.61
29.48 @29.73
29.60 @29.85

Bulk, cents per lb

Reﬁned, Midwest, bulk, cents per lb
55.00

Year
ago
33.39
33.52
33.69
33.60
33.47
33.09

Bulk in tank cars, cents per lb

Spot canola oil

Decatur, Ill., bulk, cents per lb

Ingredient Week

2015-16

Proprietary domestic sugar and sweetener prices
Better manage your sales and procurement needs

Ϭϲͬϭϳͬϭϱ
ϬϱͬϮϬͬϭϱ

ϬϴͬϭϮͬϭϱ
Ϭϳͬϭϱͬϭϱ

ϭϮͬϯϭͬϭϰ

ϬϮͬϮϱͬϭϱ
ϬϭͬϮϴͬϭϱ

ϬϰͬϮϮͬϭϱ
ϬϯͬϮϱͬϭϱ

Ϭϴͬϭϯͬϭϰ

ϭϬͬϬϴͬϭϰ
ϬϵͬϭϬͬϭϰ

bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

ϭϮͬϬϯͬϭϰ
ϭϭͬϬϱͬϭϰ

Daily updates of raw sugar futures and cash sugar markets
Full report published weekly
To view a sample Sweetener Report or to subscribe,
go to SoslandPremium.com and click on "Sweetener Report."
For more information, email Ron Sterk at rsterk@sosland.com.
Milling & Baking News XJanuary 19, 2016
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Milling & Baking News - January 19, 2016

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