Milling & Baking News - February 16, 2016 - 34

Data X

Quarterly U.S. wheat flour production
(million cwts)
115

110

105

100

95

90

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Compilation on quarterly production of flour,
grind of wheat, millfeed output on six-day weekly basis

108,785
107,879
105,114
103,116

235,885
235,001
227,467
225,289

1,682,137
1,713,970
1,643,116
1,601,309

1,618
1,617
1,623
1,610

1,413
1,401
1,365
1,357

87.3%
86.6%
84.1%
84.3%

'14

Oct-Dec-14
Jul-Sep-14
Apr-Jun-14
Jan-Mar-14

108,376
106,826
105,923
103,824

235,921
233,411
227,205
224,727

1,683,479
1,668,439
1,656,220
1,645,987

1,601
1,601
1,578
1,559

1,407
1,387
1,376
1,366

87.9%
86.7%
87.2%
87.6%

'13

Oct-Dec-13
Jul-Sep-13
Apr-Jun-13
Jan-Mar-13

110,332
106,598
104,688
102,932

238,815
230,731
224,079
220,094

1,724,546
1,655,419
1,636,901
1,631,834

1,553
1,553
1,554
1,532

1,433
1,384
1,360
1,354

92.3%
89.2%
87.5%
88.4%

'12

Oct-Dec-12
Jul-Sep-12
Apr-Jun-12
Jan-Mar-12

106,213
108,754
101,936
103,462

232,923
238,496
223,544
226,890

1,660,157
1,688,890
1,593,876
1,640,246

1,534
1,535
1,527
1,523

1,379
1,431
1,324
1,344

89.9%
93.2%
86.7%
88.2%

Oct-Dec-11
Jul-Sep-11
Apr-Jun-11
Jan-Mar-11

105,998
105,410
100,313
100,024

232,452
228,159
216,420
218,223

1,656,798
1,636,962
1,568,498
1,585,737

1,522
1,519
1,539
1,539

1,377
1,369
1,303
1,316

90.5%
90.1%
84.7%
85.5%

Oct-Dec-10
Jul-Sep-10
Apr-Jun-10
Jan-Mar-10

104,792
108,593
101,479
102,532

226,867
234,623
219,191
221,162

1,637,949
1,686,395
1,567,214
1,588,638

1,544
1,550
1,546
1,541

1,361
1,410
1,318
1,349

88.1%
91.0%
85.2%
87.5%

Oct-Dec-09
Jul-Sep-09
Apr-Jun-09
Jan-Mar-09

103,717
107,353
102,926
100,662

224,558
232,719
221,176
217,607

1,600,483
1,677,859
1,606,323
1,575,673

1,534
1,536
1,534
1,532

1,347
1,394
1,337
1,325

87.8%
90.8%
87.1%
86.5%

'15

Oct-Dec-15
Jul-Sep-15
Apr-Jun-15
Jan-Mar-15

'11

Per
cent
operated

'10

Millfeed,
tons

Average
Daily
flour
capacity,
per work
cwts
day, cwts
-(1,000)-

'09

Flour
Wheat
production,
ground,
cwts
bus
-(1,000)-

Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S.D.A. Veris

34 / February 16, 2016 XMilling & Baking News

Census

2015 was 1,618,000 cwts, up 17,000
from a year ago. It was up just 1,000
from the third quarter and was only
5,000 cwts under the record quarterly daily capacity of 1,623,000 in
April-June. The smallest NASS capacity numbers to date were for the
third and fourth quarters of 2014 at
1,601,000. The peak capacity number
provided by the Census Bureau was
1,604,000 in April-June 2001.
Based on available data, flour mills
operated at an average of 85.6% of
six-day capacity in 2015, down from
87.4% in the prior year. The percentages reflect 307 operating days in both
years. It was the slowest annual grind
since 85.5% in both 2003 and 2004. It
was 90.3% in 2000, the last time it exceeded 90%.
With the current report NASS
shows production based entirely
on its own data for July-December output at 216,664,000 cwts, up
0.7% from 215,202,000 in the same
six months of 2014. Mills in JulyDecember 2015 ran at 86.4% of
fourth-quarter capacity against 86.7%
a year ago.
In the last quarter of 2015, October-December, flour output totaled
108,785,000 cwts, up 0.8% from
107,879,000 in the third quarter and
0.4% above 108,376,000 cwts in the final quarter of 2014. All of these numbers were compiled by NASS. The fact
that NASS quarterly numbers for both
the third and fourth quarters of 2015
were up from year earlier NASS levels indicated an ongoing reversal of
the recent significant downward trend
in flour output. While recent annual
numbers were at or close to highs,
the record for 12-month flour production was reached in total for October
2013-September 2014, at 426,906,000
cwts, nearly 2 million above the 2014
calendar year high.
Mills operated at 87.3% of capacity
in the 2015 fourth quarter, up from
86.6% in the third but below 87.9% a
year ago. This reflects 77 operating
days in each of these quarters.
While NASS started in July-September 2014 providing figures for
all of the flour milling data formerly
covered by the Census Bureau prior
to the halt in compilations at AprilJune 2011, NAMA in the interim released only flour statistics. Milling &
Baking News subsequently sought to
estimate but did not publish numbers for most items other than flour.
NASS in July-December 2014 overlapped NAMA numbers, and the resulting data proved to be reasonably
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Milling & Baking News - February 16, 2016

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