Milling & Baking News - June 21, 2016 - 40

Data X

Winter wheat forecast raised 6%
from May, 10% from 2015
WASHINGTON - The National Agricultural Statistics Service of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture on June 10
forecast winter wheat production this
year at 1,506,626,000 bus, up 79,542,000
bus, or 6%, from the May projection of
1,427,084,000 bus and up 136,438,000
bus, or 10%, from 1,370,188,000 bus in
2015. Most of the increase from the May
forecast was in hard red winter wheat
followed by soft white winter wheat.
The soft red winter wheat forecast was
lowered slightly. The U.S.D.A. forecast
the average winter wheat yield in 2016
at a record 50.5 bus per acre, up from
47.8 bus per acre as the May outlook and
compared with 42.5 bus per acre in 2015.
The U.S.D.A. forecast hard red
winter wheat production in 2016 at
937,655,000 bus, up 75,133,000 bus, or
9%, from 862,522,000 bus as the May
projection and up 110,742,000 bus, or
13%, from 826,913,000 bus in 2015. It
would be the largest hard red winter
wheat crop since 997,948,000 bus in
2012 and compare with 819 million
bus as the recent five-year average
outturn. The U.S.D.A. raised its yield
and production forecasts from May in
all principal hard red winter states.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the average
wheat yield in Kansas, the largest hard
red winter wheat producer, this year at
48 bus per acre, up 5 bus per acre from
the May projection and compared with
37 bus per acre in 2015. This state's average wheat yield would be the highest
since 2003, also 48 bus per acre, and just
shy of the record 49 bus per acre in 1998.
The department forecast 2016 Kansas
wheat production at 393,600,000 bus,
up 41,000,000 bus, or 12%, from the May
outlook and up 71,700,000 bus, or 22%,
from 321,900,000 bus in 2015. It would be
the largest Kansas crop since 480,000,000
bus in 2003 and compare with the recent
10-year average at 322 million bus.
The U.S.D.A. forecast 2016 soft red
winter wheat production at 354,605,000
bus, down 1,964,000 bus from the May
outlook and down 4,450,000 bus from
the 2015 outturn of 359,055,000 bus.
The department forecast average yield
and production to decline from the
May projections in Missouri, Kentucky,
Tennessee, Michigan and Maryland.
Yield and production forecasts were
raised in Mississippi, North Carolina and Ohio. Production and yield
forecasts were unchanged in Arkansas,
Illinois, Indiana and Virginia.
Ohio was forecast to be the largest
40 / June 21, 2016 XMilling & Baking News

producer of soft red winter wheat in
2016 (Michigan was forecast to harvest
more soft winter wheat than Ohio, but
by recent measures, Michigan's soft
wheat crop has been between 65% and
69% soft red winter wheat with the
remainder soft white winter wheat). The
U.S.D.A. raised its forecast for average
yield in Ohio to 75 bus per acre from

well short of the record outturn in the
state at 79,620,000 bus in 2000 because
of a much smaller harvested area. The
recent five-year average for Ohio wheat
production was 39 million bus.
The U.S.D.A. forecast soft white
winter wheat production in 2016 at
195,394,000 bus, up 4,787,000 bus from
the May projection and up 27,088,000
bus, or 16%, from 168,306,000 bus in
2015. It would be the largest soft white
winter crop since 215,988,000 bus in
2013 and compare with 201 million

Hard red winter wheat production
(in million bus)
1,046
956

1,006

998

926
783

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

938*
827

2012

747

739

2013

2014

2015

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

2016
*forecast

Soft red winter wheat production
(in million bus)
618
568
453
391

352

455

413

359

355*

219
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

2016
*forecast

Soft white winter wheat production
(in million bus)
245
199

214

207

216
195*

186

170

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

74 bus per acre as the May projection.
Should the forecast be realized, the Ohio
wheat yield would be a new record and
compare with 67 bus per acre in 2015.
The Ohio crop was forecast at 41,250,000
bus, up 550,000 bus from the May projection and up 9,090,000 bus, or 28%,
from 32,160,000 bus in 2015. Despite
the record yield, the Ohio crop will fall

2012

2013

172

168

2014

2015

2016
*forecast

bus as the recent five-year average.
Hard white wheat production in
2016 was forecast at 18,972,000 bus, up
1,586,000 bus, or 9%, from 17,386,000
bus as the May projection and
3,058,000 bus, or 19%, from 15,914,000
bus in 2015. It would be the largest
hard white winter wheat crop since
25,280,000 bus in 2005. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - June 21, 2016

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - June 21, 2016
