Milling & Baking News - July 19, 2016 - 40

Data X

Wheat forecast at 2,260 million bus;
would be largest crop since 2008
WASHINGTON - The National
Agricultural Statistics Service of the
U.S. Department of Agriculture on
July 12 forecast wheat production
this year at 2,260,928,000 bus, up 184
million bus from the June projection as contained in the June World
Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates report and up 209,176,000
bus, or 10%, from 2,051,752,000
bus in 2015. The July forecast was
the first to contain survey-based
other-spring wheat and durum
projections. The June WASDE forecast was based on a survey of winter
wheat producers as well as spring
wheat projections based on the outlook for harvested acres and trendline yields. If the forecast all-wheat
production were to be realized, the
2016 crop would be the largest since
2,511,900,000 bus in 2008 and would
compare with the recent five-year
average outturn of 2,092 million bus.
The U.S.D.A. forecast winter wheat
production in 2016 at 1,627,664,000
bus, up 121,038,000 bus, or 8%, from
the June projection and up 257,476,000
bus, or 19%, from 1,370,188,000 bus in
2015. The winter wheat forecast was
based on a harvested area projection
of 30,176,000 acres, up 345,000 acres
from the June projection, and a record
average yield at 53.9 bus per acre
compared with the June projection at
50.5 bus per acre.
The U.S.D.A. forecast hard red
winter wheat production this year at
1,034,058,000 bus, up 96,403,000 bus,
or 10%, from the June projection,

up 207,145,000 bus, or 25%, from
826,913,000 bus in 2015 and compared with the recent five-year average outturn at 819 million bus. The
2016 hard red winter wheat crop was
forecast to be the largest since 1,046
million bus in 2008.
The Kansas hard red winter wheat
crop was forecast at 453,600,000 bus,
up 60,000,000 bus, or 15%, from the
June projection and up 131,700,000
bus, or 41%, from 321,900,000 bus in

All-wheat production
in million bus
3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500
1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2015. The estimated Kansas average
wheat yield was raised to a record 56
bus per acre from the June forecast at
48 bus per acre.
Soft red winter wheat production
was forecast at 370,105,000 bus, up
15,500,000 bus, or 4%, from the June
projection, up 11,050,000 bus, or 3%,
from 359,055,000 bus in 2015 and

in 1,000 bus

Other-spring wheat
Hard red spring
Hard white spring
Soft white spring
Durum
All wheat

2016
1,627,664
1,034,058
370,105
21,230
202,271

Change
from
2015
257,476
207,145
11,050
5,316
33,965

550,494
511,460
6,154
32,880

-48,586
-52,647
628
3,433

-8.1%
-9.3%
11.4%
11.7%

599,080
564,107
5,526
29,447

595,038
555,543
8,943
30,552

534,101
490,629
10,525
32,947

82,770

286

0.3%

82,484

54,056

57,976

2,260,928

209,176

10.2%

2,051,752

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

40 / July 19, 2016 XMilling & Baking News

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Wheat production by class

Winter wheat
Hard red winter
Soft red winter
Hard white winter
Soft white winter

compared with 450 million bus as
the recent five-year average.
The U.S.D.A. forecast soft white
winter wheat production in 2016 at
202,271,000 bus, up 6,877,000 bus,
or 4%, from the June outlook and
up 33,965,000 bus, or 20%, from
168,306,000 bus in 2015. Hard white
winter wheat production was forecast at 21,230,000 bus, up 5,316,000
bus, or 33%, from 15,914,000 bus
in 2015.
The U.S.D.A.'s initial forecast for
production of spring wheat other
than durum in 2016 was 550,494,000
bus, down 48,586,000 bus, or 8%, from

Per cent
change from
2015
2015
18.8%
1,370,188
25.1%
826,913
3.1%
359,055
33.4%
15,914
20.2%
168,306

2014
2013
1,377,216 1,542,902
738,650 747,373
454,531 568,481
11,546
11,060
172,489 215,988

2,026,310 2,134,979

599,080,000 bus in 2015. The forecast was based on a harvested area
at 11,835,000 acres versus 12,941,000
acres in 2015 and a forecast average yield of 46.5 bus per acre compared with 46.3 bus per acre as the
2015 average.
The hard red spring wheat crop
was forecast at 511,460,000 bus, down
52,647,000 bus, or 9%,
from 564,107,000 bus
in 2015 and compared
with the recent five-year
average outturn of 502
million bus. Soft white
spring wheat was fore2012
1,630,387
cast at 32,880,000 bus,
997,948
up 3,433,000 bus, or 12%,
412,729
from 29,447,000 bus a
13,046
year ago. Hard white
206,664
spring wheat was forecast at 6,154,000 bus, up
540,419
628,000 bus, or 11%, from
503,464
5,526,000 bus in 2015.
8,302
The U.S.D.A. forecast
28,653
the 2016 durum crop at
81,501
82,770,000 bus, up 286,000
bus from 82,484,000 in
2,252,307
2015 and compared with
the recent five-year average of 65 million bus. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - July 19, 2016

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