Milling & Baking News - July 19, 2016 - 45

X
Cash Wheat
HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red
winter wheat in Kansas City were 12c a
bu higher to 35c lower last week. Harvest
pressure pummeled the basis below
12.8% protein. Mills also received wheat
for application against July contracts.
Premiums on wheat with protein from
12.8% through 14% advanced 5@12c a bu.
Pipelines were filled with low-protein
wheat. The market could absorb no more
for the time being. A wheat merchandiser
characterized recent activity across the
middle third of protein scale as skittish
given the uncertainty about how much
wheat in the 12% range of proteins, new
crop or earlier supply, will be available to
the domestic market in coming months.
Some middle-protein wheat was marketed last week even as mill demand
evaporated, and the basis slumped. The
value of such wheat long term, though,
was uncertain given expectations that
the average protein of the 2016 crop
will be historically low. The low-protein
supply will require blending with highprotein wheat, spring wheat, if need be,
to approach many bakers' specifications.
Also, it was pointed out much of the
middle-protein supply in storage may
be drawn by or already was committed
to export channels.
The basis across the top third of the
protein scale remained firm given the
dearth of high-protein wheat harvested
to date. The value of protein was reflected clearly in basis with 13%-protein
wheat quoted 55c higher than 12% protein and 120c higher than 11% protein.
New business in the market for to-arrive wheat remained light given uncertainty over what protein could be guaranteed over time.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture indicated the winter wheat harvest as of July
10 was 91% completed in Kansas (91% as

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City Sept., cents per bu
July 15 - Change from -
Premium July 8
July 1
Ordinary -35@ -25 -19 @ -19 -19 @ -19
11%
-15@ -5 -16 @ -16 +1 @ +1
11.2% -12@ -2 -13 @ -13 -7 @ -7
11.4%
-5@ 5
-25 @ -25 -31 @ -31
11.6%
16@ 26 -24 @ -24 -26 @ -26
11.8%
22@ 32 -20 @ -20 -20 @ -20
12%
40@ 50 -35 @ -35 -35 @ -35
12.2%
40@ 50 -35 @ -35 -35 @ -35
12.4%
40@ 50 -35 @ -35 -35 @ -35
12.6%
80@ 90
-5 @ -5
+5 @ +5
12.8%
90@ 100 +5 @ +5 +15 @ +15
13%
100@ 110 +5 @ +5 +14 @ +14
13.2% 100@ 110 +5 @ +5 +14 @ +14
13.4% 100@ 110 +5 @ +5 +14 @ +14
13.6% 107@ 117 +12 @ +12 +21 @ +21
13.8% 107@ 117 +12 @ +12 +16 @ +16
14%
107@ 117 +6 @ +6 +6 @ +6
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Year
ago
70@ 80
70@ 80
70@ 80
70@ 80
70@ 80
70@ 80
70@ 80
70@ 80
70@ 80
70@ 80
70@ 80
75@ 85
75@ 85
80@ 90
80@ 90
85@ 95
100@ 110

the five-year average for the date), 97%
in Texas (95%), 98% in Oklahoma, (98%),
33% in Colorado (46%), 38% in Nebraska
(34%), and 21% in South Dakota (12%).
Farmer selling lacked enthusiasm given low prices, and producers were storing what wheat they could.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the hard red winter wheat crop this year at 1,034 million bus,
up 10% from June, up 19% from 2015 and
compared with the recent five-year average
of 819 million bus. The Kansas crop was
forecast at 454 million bus with an average
yield at a record 56 bus per acre.
In Fort Worth, bids on hard red winter
wheat were 50c under K.C. September.
Posted Salina truck bids at terminal elevators for nearby were 85c under K.C.
September. Hutchinson wheat bids were
90c under K.C. September. The highest
posted Wichita elevator bid was 83c under K.C. September. Gulf bids on hard
red winter wheat with 12% protein were
85c over K.C. September.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red
spring wheat in Minneapolis were 25c a
bu higher to 25c lower last week. Basis
changes at 14% protein were particularly
choppy even as the market pondered the
ramifications of the low average protein
of the hard red winter wheat harvested
to date. Growers were dissatisfied with
spring wheat prices, and they and elevator operators were beginning to turn
their attention to the harvest, which was
expected to begin early this year because
of advanced crop progress.

The U.S.D.A. indicated 91% of the
spring wheat crop in the six major states
was headed by July 10 compared with
64% as the 2011-14 average for the date.
The crop was rated 70% good to excellent,
23% fair and 7% poor to very poor. Ratings
were similar to a year earlier, when the
2015 crop was rated 71% good to excellent.
SOFT RED. The cash soft red winter market continued to exhibit wide regional
variations even as the harvest advanced.
Posted St. Louis-area mill bids for
nearby were 15c to 30c over Chicago
September. Chicago mill bids for nearby were 10c under Chicago September.
Toledo mill bids for September were
the Chicago September price. Elevator
bids were 7c under Chicago September.
Cincinnati elevator bids were 13c under
the September. Michigan white wheat
mill bids were about 40c over Chicago
September. Gulf bids on soft red winter
wheat for July were 30c over Chicago
September, down 5c.
The U.S.D.A. indicated the winter
wheat harvest was 95% completed in Illinois by July 10 (85% as the recent fiveyear average for the date), 83% in Indiana
(69%), 15% in Michigan (17%), 98% in
Missouri (91%) and 83% in Ohio (52%).
The quality of harvest wheat from the
Central states was vastly improved from
the last couple of years with good test
weight and virtually no problem with vomitoxin. Protein was lower than optimal for
some applications, but overall, millers and
bakers indicated they were pleased. MBN

No. 1 hard spring

No. 1 hard winter premiums, 12.2%

Basis Minneapolis Sept., delivered Chicago\beyond cents
per bu
July 15
- Change from -
Year
Premium
July 8
July 1
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
...
...
...
0
13%
60
+25 @ +10
+15
10
13.5%
50 @ 60
-
+12 @ +10 55 @ 65
14%
65
0 @ -25
-25
110 @ 140
14.5%
90
+20 @ +7
+10
130 @ 155
15%
115 @ 160 -20 @ +25
...
250 @ 300
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
shipment

July 15
Bid

Ingredient Week

Offer

No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
July
+85 Sep.
93
August
+93 Sep.
104
September
+102 Sep.
110
October
+103 Dec.
108
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
July
+30 Sep.
35
August
+35 Sep.
45
September
+45 Sep.
55
October
+58 Dec.
70

Year ago
bid

+85 Sep.
+95 Sep.
+100 Sep.
+102 Dec.

...
+15 Sep.
+48 Sep.
+50 Dec.

Basis Kansas City, cents per bu
120
100
80
60
40
J

O

J

A

Cash wheat
July 15 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid July 8
July 1
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
July
5.30
+.10
+.27
August
5.22
+.02
+.19
September
5.22
-.02
+.14
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
July
0.90
+.10
+.10
August
0.95
+.20
+.20
September
0.95
+.20
+.20
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
July
0.90
-
-.15
August
0.80
-
-
September
0.85
-
-

Year
ago
...
6.36
6.36
0.60
0.60
0.65
0.80
0.90
1.00

Milling & Baking News XJuly 19, 2016 / 45
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - July 19, 2016

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