Milling & Baking News - December 19, 2017 - 30

Weather Outlook

Argentina's farmers sweating
out dryness in December
BY DREW LERNER

Crop weather in Argentina in the first
half of December was extremely dry
with very few locations in the nation
reporting half of normal rain. Many
areas were reporting only one quarter of the usual rainfall, and temperatures trended much warmer during
the second week of the month after a
cool start.
Late November temperatures were
mild to cool in southeastern parts
of the nation and very warm in the
northwest. The cool bias helped conserve soil moisture while rainfall was
lighter than usual in some areas. The
recent heat in Argentina has brought
on a frothy sweat among grain and
oilseed farmers who were once

The lack of topsoil moisture was
occurring at a time when nearly half
of the 2018 corn and soybean crop remained to be planted. The sweat coming from the producers' brows was the
result of withering crops that recently
have emerged and were running out
of moisture to continue development.
Planting progress has slowed to a halt
in some of the driest areas, which appear to be in the northwest part of the
nation. But topsoil conditions have
firmed everywhere, and the worry for
producers is rising fast, but so are the
chances for rain.
Three weather systems were expected to move through Argentina
in the Dec. 15-25 period and would
be fueled by cool air aloft in a

Average 7-day topsoil
moisture ended
Dec. 11, 2017.

concerned about too much moisture
in a part of the nation. Now, the farmer are concerned about recent heat
and dryness.
Argentina seems to be at the crossroads between a serious drought and
crop improvement. Most indicators
suggest a road to improvement is
most likely, although it will be extremely important that follow-up
rain occurs after that which falls in
the next 10 days. Most computer forecast models have been suggesting increased rainfall will occur in Argentina's key grain and oilseed production
areas during the period from Dec. 1525. The precipitation could not occur
at a more important time because topsoil moisture was rated short to very
short just prior to Dec. 15.
30 / December 19, 2017

Milling & Baking News

fast-moving west to east flow pattern. The odds for rain to fall in
much of the nation during this period are high, but follow-up rain will
be extremely important to avoid a
return of extremely dry conditions
in another 10 days.
Advertised changes in Argentina
are quite familiar. The widespread
dryness has been mirrored in most
of the La Niña events of the recent
past. If tradition holds the driest bias
will soon shift to eastern Argentina.
Typically, the month of December is a
period of transition in which dryness
that had been widespread in Argentina shifts to eastern Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and southern Brazil,
where it is likely to prevail through
January. This traditional weather

transition is all credited to La Niña.
The phenomenon will continue influencing weather around the world
over the next few weeks, but there
is support for some weakening, and
that eventually may lead to some returning rainfall or at least some timely rain events that will help prevent
dryness from becoming extensive in
southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay
and eastern Argentina.
In the meantime, dryness that is
most serious in Argentina today
should be relieved in the next couple
of weeks with western and northern
parts of the nation likely to get additional showers and thunderstorms
later this month. The rain should
bring relief to the critically dry areas
in Santiago del Estero, northwestern
Santa Fe and western and northern
Chaco. These areas in Argentina that
have been driest and have suffered
with dryness for the longest period
of time will likely receive timely rainfall to support a better second half to
the growing season. Some dryness
will linger, and some of the impact of
dryness will leave behind a scar that
will lower production in many early
season crops.
In the meantime, Brazil's crop
weather has gone from questionable
in center west to ideal. Crop development that was stressed earlier this
year is now racing along, and early
December statistics suggest crop conditions are very good in a majority of
the nation. The earliest planted soybeans have begun to bloom, and both
full season corn and early soybean
planting is nearly complete.
Recent weather in northern Brazil
has become a little too wet in parts of
Minas Gerais, where some flooding
has occurred recently. The beneficial
rain has been in northeastern Brazil,
where a multi-year drought has potential to be eased, but confidence is
not high for the drought to end since
the second half of December could
trend a little drier in the northeast
and far south while rain falls abundantly in center west and all of center
south Brazil.
Brazil's biggest issue for 2018 production remains for its second season
corn crop, which may be planted late.
Seasonal rainfall will have to linger
longer than usual in Brazil to support
late corn planting this summer. The
situation will be closely monitored.
In the meantime, soybeans will likely
yield well, despite their slow start to
the planting season.
Weather conditions elsewhere in the
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Milling & Baking News - December 19, 2017

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