Milling & Baking News - December 19, 2017 - 41

Ingredient Week

Cash Wheat
HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard
red winter wheat in Kansas City were
unchanged to 17c a bu lower last week.
Where adjustments were made, they
ranged from 6c to 15c a bu with the widest
declines posted from 12% through 12.4%
protein and across the top third of the protein scale, except for 14%-protein wheat,
which was untested and unchanged. The
declines were the first of any significance
to be posted in several weeks. Yet after the
declines, the cash hard red winter wheat
basis remained at the highest levels since
2008 because of underlying domestic and
export demand for limited supply of hard
winter wheat that met both protein and
quality requirements.
Wheat movement began to accelerate
after the slow pace that prevailed during
the corn harvest. Mills took delivery of delayed wheat shipments that they promptly
applied against late-November and earlyDecember contracts. Spot offers increased
as well and began to weigh on the basis.
What had been broad-based demand was
receded in view of the shortened grind expected during Christmas and New Year's
weeks. At the same time, mills' wheat
coverage for January-March was not very
extensive, one wheat merchant observed.
Gulf bids on hard red winter wheat
began to pull back as well but remained
historically high. Gulf export elevator
bids on 12%-protein hard red winter
wheat at 230c over the K.C. March future
were down 10c from their recent high
but compared with 112c over a year ago.
Farmer selling of wheat was lacking.
Growers earlier sold nearly all their 2017
production. The bulk of the crop now
was in commercial hands, and elevators
eyed relatively wide carrying charges in
K.C. wheat futures that argued for storing wheat and not aggressively selling it
into spot marketing channels.

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City Mar., cents per bu
Dec. 15 - Change from -
Premium Dec. 8
Dec. 1
Ordinary 35@ 50
-
-
11%
115@ 130 -10 @ -10
-
11.2% 140@ 155
-
+7 @ +7
11.4% 155@ 170 -9 @ -9
-9 @ -9
11.6% 165@ 180 -6 @ -6
-6 @ -6
11.8% 179@ 194
-
-
12%
193@ 208 -14 @ -14 -12 @ -12
12.2% 193@ 208 -14 @ -14 -12 @ -12
12.4% 193@ 208 -14 @ -14 -12 @ -12
12.6% 225@ 240
-
-
12.8% 225@ 240
-
-
13%
235@ 250 -13 @ -13 -13 @ -13
13.2% 235@ 250 -13 @ -13 -13 @ -13
13.4% 235@ 250 -15 @ -15 -15 @ -15
13.6% 235@ 250 -15 @ -15 -15 @ -15
13.8% 235@ 250 -15 @ -15 -15 @ -15
14%
252@ 267
-
-
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Year
ago
2@ 12
24@ 34
50@ 60
80@ 90
80@ 90
80@ 90
95@ 105
105@ 115
105@ 115
110@ 120
127@ 137
160@ 170
160@ 170
160@ 170
160@ 170
160@ 170
225@ 235

Dry conditions prevailed across most
of the Southwest, which was exacting a
toll on soil moisture. Key states, including Kansas, won't update winter wheat
condition and soil moisture ratings until
the first week of January to reflect endof-December conditions.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on
Dec. 12 forecast the carryover of hard red
winter wheat on June 1, 2018, at 470 million
bus, up 9 million bus from the November
projection but down 119 million bus, or
20%, from 589 million bus in 2017. The larger carryover mostly reflected a lower export
forecast for 2017-18 at 405 million bus.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red
spring wheat in Minneapolis were 15c a
bu higher to 20c lower last week. Wheat
movement across the northern Plains was
limited. Mill demand was not pressing
with mills having kept wheat pipelines
in mostly good order in recent weeks.
Demand also was less urgent in view of
reduced mill grind around the holidays.
The Great Lakes shipping season was
drawing to a close. Spring wheat stocks
in the northern ports of Duluth, Minn.,
and Superior, Wis., on Dec. 10 totaled
18,916,000 bus, down 242,000 bus from
Dec. 3 and compared with 21,675,000 bus
as the Oct. 29 inventory, the largest in 2017.
A year earlier, spring wheat stocks in the
northern ports totaled 13,233,000 bus.
The U.S.D.A. raised its forecast for the
2018 spring wheat carryover to 167 million
bus, up 10 million bus from November but
down 29% from 235 million bus in 2017.

The larger carryover forecast reflected a
10-million-bu reduction in the hard red
spring wheat export forecast for 2017-18
to 255 million bus, which compared with
the 2016-17 outgo at 321 million bus. The
U.S.D.A. forecast hard red spring wheat
imports in 2017-18 at 73 million bus compared with 42 million bus in 2016-17.
Farmer selling of spring wheat was
lacking.
SOFT RED. St. Louis-area mill bids for
nearby were 15c over Chicago March.
Chicago mill bids for nearby were the
Chicago March price. Toledo mill bids
for December-March were 10c over Chicago March. Elevator bids were a nominal 10c under Chicago March. Cincinnati elevator bids were the Chicago March
price. Michigan white wheat mill bids
were 25c over Chicago March; soft red
bids were 15c over Chicago March. Gulf
bids on soft red winter wheat for nearby
were 52c over Chicago March, up 7c.
Wheat fields in Michigan, Ohio and
northeast Indiana had snow cover.
The U.S.D.A. on Dec. 12 forecast the
soft red winter wheat carryover on June
1, 2018, at 230 million bus, up 8 million
bus from the November projection and
up 15 million bus from 2017. The U.S.D.A.
increased its forecast for 2017-18 soft red
winter wheat imports to 20 million bus, up
3 million bus from November and compared with 33 million bus in 2016-17. The
U.S.D.A. forecast soft red winter wheat exports in 2017-18 at 85 million bus, down 5
million bus from November. MBN

No. 1 hard spring

No. 1 hard winter premiums, 12.2%

Basis Minneapolis Mar., delivered Chicago\beyond cents
per bu
Dec. 15
- Change from -
Year
Premium
Dec. 8
Dec. 1
ago
Ordinary . . .
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
...
...
...
...
13%
...
+15@+25
...
70 @ 85
13.5%
90
+10
+14
95 @ 125
14%
115 @ 120 +15 @ -20 +5 @ -20 145 @ 150
14.5%
120
...
...
150
15%
150 @ 166 -5 @ +6 -30 @ -29
...
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
shipment

Dec. 15
Bid

Offer

No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
December
+230 March 240
January
+230 March 240
February
+230 March 240
March
+230 March 240
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
December
+55 March 60
January
+56 March 60
February
+58 March 63
March
+60 March 65

Year ago
bid

+112 March
+107 March
+105 March
+105 March

+33 March
+41 March
+42 March
+42 March

Basis Kansas City, cents per bu
222
182
142
102
62
22
D

Cash wheat
Dec. 15 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid Dec. 8
Dec. 1
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
December
5.25
+.03
+.03
January
5.25
-.01
-
February
5.25
-.03
-.02
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
December
1.60
-
-
January
1.55
-
-
February
1.55
-
-
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
December
1.20
-
-
January
1.15
-
-
February
1.15
-
-
Milling & Baking News

Year
ago
4.60
4.60
4.60
0.90
0.95
0.95
1.25
1.25
1.25

December 19, 2017 / 41

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Milling & Baking News - December 19, 2017

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