Milling & Baking News - January 30, 2018 - 41

Ingredient Week

Cash Wheat
HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red
winter wheat in Kansas City were 10c to
20c a bu lower last week, with 15c to 20c
declines posted from 12.4% protein and
above and 10c to 20c declines below 12.4%
protein. It was the first "across the protein scale" decline in premiums since the
week ended March 24, 2017. There were a
few times when most, but not all, protein
levels declined for the week, and several
times when premiums posted advances at
all protein levels during that time. Still, the
Kansas City cash wheat basis was about
70c to 90c a bu above year-ago levels for
ordinary wheat through 13.8% protein,
with 14% wheat up 35c year-over-year.
The buckle in hard winter premiums
largely offset gains of 9c to 10c a bu in futures last Wednesday, resulting in nearly
unchanged flat prices. But pressure also
came from ample spot offers of wheat in
the Kansas City market, which had been
receiving an average of about 75 rail cars
a day for the past couple of weeks. Mills
had sufficient supply that they finally
were able to post lower bids. At the same
time, though, stronger-than-desired toarrive prices kept buyers focused on the
spot market to ensure they had adequate
supply at desired protein levels.
Farmer selling remained light with most
growers having earlier sold nearly all of
their 2017 crop. Rail service was timely with
no weather impediments slowing deliveries, and with plenty of freight available.
A wintry mix of precipitation that fell
across western parts of the hard red winter
growing area the prior weekend provided
some much-needed moisture to parched
soils, but considerably more moisture was
needed before the crop breaks dormancy.
The moisture seemed to keep drought in
check in some areas but not all.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said 71% of Kansas winter wheat

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City Mar., cents per bu
Jan. 26 - Change from -
Premium Jan. 19 Jan. 12
Ordinary 85@ 100 -10 @ -10
-
11%
115@ 130 -10 @ -10 -5 @ -5
11.2% 142@ 157 -10 @ -10 -3 @ -3
11.4% 152@ 167 -10 @ -10 -3 @ -3
11.6% 162@ 177 -20 @ -20 -13 @ -13
11.8% 167@ 182 -20 @ -20 -13 @ -13
12%
185@ 200 -20 @ -20 -15 @ -15
12.2% 195@ 210 -10 @ -10 -5 @ -5
12.4% 195@ 210 -16 @ -16 -16 @ -16
12.6% 215@ 230 -20 @ -20 -10 @ -10
12.8% 215@ 230 -20 @ -20 -10 @ -10
13%
250@ 265 -15 @ -15 -5 @ -5
13.2% 250@ 265 -15 @ -15 -5 @ -5
13.4% 250@ 265 -15 @ -15 -5 @ -5
13.6% 250@ 265 -15 @ -15 -5 @ -5
13.8% 250@ 265 -15 @ -15 -5 @ -5
14%
260@ 275 -20 @ -20 -10 @ -10
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Year
ago
10 @ 20
35 @ 45
50 @ 60
80 @ 90
85 @ 95
90 @ 100
105 @ 115
110 @ 120
110 @ 120
130 @ 140
130 @ 140
160 @ 170
160 @ 170
160 @ 170
160 @ 170
160 @ 170
225 @ 235

and 84% of the Colorado crop were in
drought areas, both unchanged from two
weeks earlier. Kansas' drought area was
49% moderate, 20% severe and 2% extreme. But the drought area worsened in
Oklahoma, covering 100% of the state's
crop, with 17% in extreme, 40% in severe
and 43% in moderate drought. And the
drought area grew to 83% in Texas from
74% two weeks earlier. In other hard
winter wheat states, winter wheat located in varying stages of drought included
Nebraska at 22%, South Dakota at 55%
and Montana at 27%.
Gulf bids on 12%-protein hard red
winter wheat were 240c over K.C. March
against offers at 250c. The nearby Gulf
basis has been unchanged since Jan. 5,
reflecting generally quiet export activity.
Salina truck bids at terminal elevators
were 40c under K.C. March last week,
unchanged. Hutchinson wheat bids also
were 40c under K.C. March, unchanged.
Wichita elevator bids were 45c under
K.C. March, unchanged.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red
spring wheat in Minneapolis were mostly lower last week. Changes ranged from
10c a bu higher to 30c lower. A 10c-gain
at low end of the range at 13.5% protein
was only increase. Premiums above that
level were 15c to 30c a bu lower, except
for 16% protein, which was down 10c. A
wider range of protein levels were quoted last week, ranging from 12% to 16%.
While hard red spring wheat offered
on the spot market was steady and up

from a few weeks ago, offers were considered light by historical standards,
and only seven cars were offered Friday.
Broad mill interest shown a week earlier, nearer the holiday period, seemed
to narrow last week with mill pipelines
adequately filled.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
(A.A.F.C.) in its Outlook for Principal
Field Crops released Jan. 25 forecast 2018
area seeded to wheat other than durum
up 4% from 2017 as a 5% increase in spring
wheat seeded area more than offset an
11% decline in winter wheat area. Higher
spring wheat area was due to good prices
and a shift out of winter wheat and dry
peas in Western Canada, A.A.F.C. said.
Average yields were forecast to drop to
trend yield levels. All wheat production
except durum was forecast at 24.3 million
tonnes, down 3% from 2017.
SOFT RED. Mill bids last week were
mostly changed but remained firm. St.
Louis-area mill bids for nearby were
20@25c over Chicago March, unchanged.
Chicago mill bids for nearby were 20c
over Chicago March, unchanged. Toledo
mill bids for January-March were 10c
over Chicago March, unchanged; AprilMay, 10c over May. Elevator bids were
5c under March, up 5c. Cincinnati elevator bids were the Chicago March price.
Michigan white wheat mill bids were 25c
over Chicago March; soft red bids were
10@15c over Chicago March. Gulf bids
on soft red winter wheat for nearby were
57c over Chicago March, unchanged. MBN

No. 1 hard spring

No. 1 hard winter premiums, 12.2%

Basis Minneapolis Mar., delivered Chicago\beyond cents
per bu Jan. 26
- Change from -
Year
Premium
Jan. 19
Jan. 12
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
50
...
...
...
13%
...
...
...
75
13.5%
90 @ 100 +10 @ -20
...
50 @ 70
14%
105 @ 130 -20 @ -20 -10 @ +15 80 @ 115
14.5% 100 @ 110 -25 @ -20 -40 @ -30
95
15%
150 @ 185 -30 @ -15 -50 @ -25 120 @ 155
16%
190
-10
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
shipment

Jan. 26
Bid

Offer

No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
January
+240 March 250
February
+240 March 245
March
+240 March 245
April
+220 May
230
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
January
+60 March 66
February
+60 March 66
March
+62 March 66
April
+47 May
53

Year ago
bid

...
+140 March
+128 March
+104 May

+63 March
+55 March
+52 March
+41 May

Basis Kansas City, cents per bu
222
182
142
102
62
22
J

A

J

O

Cash wheat
Jan. 26 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid Jan.19 Jan. 12
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
January
5.43
+.11
+.16
February
5.43
+.11
+.16
March
5.43
+.11
+.16
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
January
1.65
-
+.05
February
1.65
-
+.05
March
1.65
-
+.05
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
January
1.30
-
+.05
February
1.30
-
+.05
March
1.25
-
-
Milling & Baking News

Year
ago
4.71
4.71
4.71
1.10
1.05
1.05
1.25
1.25
1.20

January 30, 2018 / 41
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Milling & Baking News - January 30, 2018

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