Milling & Baking News - November 20, 2018 - 20

Data

Year-to-date flour production up
0.5% from '17 to record high
WASHINGTON - Flour production in
the first three quarters of 2018 totaled a
record 319,139,000 cwts, up 1,574,000
cwts, or 0.5%, from the previous high of
317,565,000 cwts a year earlier, based on
data issued Nov. 1 by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the
U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The year-to-date production figure was
0.8% larger than the third largest aggregate of 316,574,000 in 2014, followed by
316,099,000 in 2015. The 2016 total was
fifth at 315,623,000.
Third-quarter production in 2018
was 108,223,000 cwts, down 169,000,
or 0.2%, from 108,392,000 cwts in JulySeptember 2017. Output was 2.8% over
105,304,000 cwts in the second quarter.
The record high for the third quarter was

109,017,000 cwts in 2007, and the largest flour production quarter ever was
110,332,000 cwts in October-December
2013.
NASS data are now available for 17
consecutive quarters, or since July-September 2014, when NASS took over from
the North American Millers' Association.
Although January-September flour output was a new high, a record for the full year
is not assured. In fact, production in the
most recent 12 months, October 2017-September 2018, aggregated 427,973,000 cwts,
down slightly from 428,142,000 in July
2017-June 2018 although a shade larger
than 427,306,000 in April-March and
426,399,000 in calendar year 2017, which
was a record at that point.
U.S. 24-hour flour milling capacity in

Quarterly U.S. wheat
flour production

January-September
flour production

million cwts

in 1,000 cwts

311,597
298,715
294,425
295,713
294,256
294,627
300,931
311,773
312,065
310,941
312,604
305,747
314,152
314,218
316,574
316,099
315,623
317,565
319,139

115
110
105
100
95
90

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

Compilation on quarterly production of flour,
grind of wheat, millfeed output on six-day weekly basis

108,223
105,304
105,612

232,908
226,627
227,147

1,627,944
1,594,864
1,606,569

1,643
1,643
1,642

1,424
1,368
1,372

86.7%
83.3%
83.6%

Oct-Dec-17
Jul-Sep-17
Apr-Jun-17
Jan-Mar-17

108,834
108,392
104,468
104,705

235,086
234,279
224,487
223,964

1,641,094
1,641,303
1,578,569
1,586,308

1,620
1,620
1,620
1,620

1,432
1,408
1,357
1,378

88.4%
86.9%
83.8%
85.1%

Oct-Dec-16
Jul-Sep-16
Apr-Jun-16
Jan-Mar-16

108,080
107,891
103,823
103,909

232,642
233,391
224,382
224,220

1,659,496
1,687,374
1,613,972
1,595,910

1,620
1,620
1,615
1,616

1,404
1,401
1,348
1,349

86.7%
86.5%
83.5%
83.5%

Oct-Dec-15
Jul-Sep-15
Apr-Jun-15
Jan-Mar-15

108,801
107,879
105,104
103,116

235,884
235,001
227,452
225,289

1,682,552
1,713,970
1,643,116
1,601,309

1,618
1,617
1,621
1,610

1,413
1,401
1,365
1,357

87.3%
86.6%
84.2%
84.3%

'18

Jul-Sep-18
Apr-Jun-18
Jan-Mar-18

'17

Per
cent
operated

'16

Millfeed,
tons

Average
Daily
flour
capacity,
per work
cwts
day, cwts
-(1,000)-

'15

Flour
Wheat
production,
ground,
cwts
bus
-(1,000)-

Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S.D.A.

20 / November 20, 2018

Milling & Baking News

July-September remained at a high of
1,643,000 cwts, unchanged from the second
quarter and up from 1,620,000 a year back.
Flour mill operating rate in July-September was 86.7% of six-day capacity, up from
83.3% in the second quarter but slightly
beneath 86.9% a year ago. The estimates
were based on 76 working days in the third,
against 77 in the second and a year ago.
Average grind in January-September was
84.5%, against 85.3% a year back.
Wheat grind in the third quarter
was 232,908,000 bus, down 0.6% from
234,279,000 a year ago. Wheat grind was
up 2.8% over 226,627,000 bus in the second quarter. The quarterly high for wheat
grind was 244,685,000 in the last quarter
of 2000. Wheat grind for January-September aggregated 686,682,000 bus, up 0.6%
from 682,730,000 bus in the prior year.
The extraction rate for July-September averaged 77.4%, unchanged from the second
quarter and up from 77.1% a year ago. In
January-September, the average was 77.4%,
down from 77.5% in the same period of 2017.
Millfeed output in July-September totaled 1,627,944 tons, down 0.8% from
1,641,303 tons a year back. Millfeed production rose 2.1% from 1,594,864 tons
in April-June. The millfeed record was
1,902,206 in October-December 2000. January-September millfeed output, however, totaled 4,829,377 tons, up 0.5% from
4,806,180 tons in this period in 2017.
Semolina production in July-September totaled 7,877,000 cwts, up 1.1% from
7,788,000 cwts in the third quarter of last
year. It was 3.4% larger than 7,618,000 cwts
milled in April-June. The record for the
third quarter was 8,510,000 cwts in 2010.
The high for any quarter was 8,770,000
cwts back in January-March 1994.
January-September semolina production totaled 23,651,000 cwts, up 1% from
23,410,000 cwts a year earlier and the
largest since the start of NASS data in
July 2014. The indicated all-time ninemonth high was 24,992,000 cwts in 2011,
but some of the data in that latter year
were questionable. Production in January-September 2007 was 24,602,000 cwts.
Durum grind in the third quarter aggregated 16,675,000 bus, gaining 3.1%
from 16,179,000 bus a year ago. It was
up 5.8% from 15,757,000 bus in AprilJune. January-September grind came to
49,546,000 bus, up 1.2% from 48,953,000
bus a year back.
Leading state and state groupings
in third-quarter flour output was Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin turning out
10,999,000 cwts, up 6.9% from a year
back. Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Utah
and Washington was second at 8,085,000
cwts, down 0.2%.
Only one state grouping recorded a
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Milling & Baking News - November 20, 2018

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