Milling & Baking News - November 20, 2018 - 33

Weather Update

spring, production could end up being surprisingly good.
In other areas of the world, Argentina's wheat should be doing alright,
although recent flooding and hail
may have damaged a part of that
crop. India's wheat needs moisture as
it does every year to perform well. India is expected to receive some timely
precipitation and experience some
cool weather this winter that may
help boost its production.
China irrigates most of the northern
winter wheat crop where dryness set
in more significantly than usual this
year. Unirrigated crops in the northern
Yellow River Basin and northern half
of the North China Plain may struggle
and yield poorly in the spring, but
since much of the region irrigates the
threat is small. Southern wheat areas
in China are receiving abundant precipitation, and that should ensure a
good stand and favorable production
potentials in 2019.
World Weather, Inc. believes that
2019 winter crops do have potential to produce better than expected
based on current and anticipated
weather conditions. A full restoration

in production potential is not likely in
the United States, western and northern Europe or from Ukraine into Kazakhstan, but the odds are very good
that each of these areas will see better spring weather that will improve
crop yield potentials.
In the meantime, summer coarse
grain, oilseed, sugarcane, cocoa and
other important ingredient crops produced around the world still have to
deal with El Niño. The latest word on
that phenomenon is that it continues
to evolve, but so far it has been a nontraditional event.
A lack of warm water south of the
equator in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and no seriously cool water
around Indonesia and Malaysia has
limited the early season impact of El
Niño. Timely rain has been occurring
in eastern Australia recently and portions of both Indonesia and Malaysia
have experienced some timely precipitation that has improved topsoil moisture in many important crop areas.
Not all crop areas in the world are
experiencing good weather. South
Africa has been struggling for rainfall in its western and central grain,

oilseed and cotton production region. Some of the mainland areas of
Southeast Asia would benefit from
greater rain, but there has been no
sign of moisture stress in west-central Africa cocoa, sugarcane, coffee
or other crop areas.
And that brings us to South America, where production potentials
are looking tremendous because of
an early start to the rainy season
and well-timed rainfall so far this
year. Planting is well ahead of average. The only negative comment
that can be made in regard to Brazil
and Argentina is 1) southern Brazil
may dry out for a while in December and early January and 2) recent
flooding rainfall has threatened Argentina crops and a little replanting
may be necessary, but there is time
for that. MBN

Drew Lerner, president
of World Weather, Inc., is
a contributing editor at
Sosland Publishing Company.

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Milling & Baking News - November 20, 2018

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