Milling & Baking News - November 20, 2018 - 37

Data

wasn't forecast to rise to the 2019 level
until 2024. By the end of the 10-year
span, wheat production was projected
at 2,087 million bus in 2028.
Meanwhile, planted and harvested
corn acreages were seen rising over the
next two years before settling into a narrow range through 2028. Area planted to
corn in 2019 was forecast at 92 million
acres, a 3.2% increase from 2018. Corn
plantings were forecast to peak at 93 million acres in 2020 and hold at that level
through 2023 before beginning to decline
to 91.5 million acres at the end of the 10year outlook. At no time in the next 10
years was corn planted area expected to
fall below 91.5 million acres.
Harvested corn acres were seen rising
3.4% from 2018 to 84.6 million acres in
2019. Harvested area was expected to
peak in 2020 at 85.6 million acres, hold
at that level through 2023 and then decline to 84.1 million acres in 2028.
The U.S.D.A. forecast corn yield falling
2.3% in 2019 to 176.5 bus per acre, marking
a return to the long-term trendline from last
year's record yield, before rising 2 bus per
year in each of the next nine crop years.
The U.S.D.A. saw corn production
rising 1% in 2019 to 14,930 million bus
which, if realized, would be the secondlargest outturn on record after 15,148
million bus in 2016. Following a 350-million-bu increase projected for 2020 to a
new record outturn at 15,280 million
bus, U.S. corn production was projected
to set a new record in each subsequent
year of the long-term projection period
and reach 16,355 million bus in 2028.
Unlike wheat and corn, soybean area in
2019 was forecast to drop sharply from the
current year. The U.S.D.A. forecast soybean
plantings in 2019 at 82.5 million acres, down
6.6 million acres, or 7%, from 89.1 million
acres in 2018. If the projection is realized,
farmers in 2019 would have planted the
fewest acres to soybeans since they seeded
76.8 million acres in 2013. The recent fiveyear average planted area for soybeans was
85.7 million acres. The soybean planted area
set a record at 90.1 million acres in 2017.
The U.S.D.A.'s 10-year outlook projected soybean planted area to expand slowly
from 2019 and reach 85.5 million acres in
2027 and 2028. The unmistakable takeaway was the U.S.D.A. thinks soybean
planted area has peaked and the 2017
record seedings was not likely to be surpassed in the foreseeable future, certainly
not in the next 10 years.
The U.S.D.A. projected harvested area
of soybeans in 2019 at 81.8 million acres,
down 6.5 million acres, or 7%, from 88.3
million acres in 2018 and compared with
the record-large harvested area of 89.5
million acres in 2017. Harvested area was
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expected to increase incrementally after
2019 and 2020 (the 2020 area was forecast
to equal that of 2019) and reach 84.7 million acres in both 2027 and 2028.
In 2018, the average soybean yield set a
record at 53.1 bus per acre. The U.S.D.A.
projected average soybean yield in 2019
to drop to 50 bus per acre, which would
mark a return to the multi-year trendline.
Average yield was forecast to increase
steadily along this trendline from 2019.

Yield was expected to eclipse the 2018 record in 2025 and reach 55 bus per acre at
the end of the 10-year span.
The U.S.D.A. forecast soybean production in 2019 at 4,090 million bus, down
600 million bus, or 13%, from a record
4,690 million bus in 2018. Production in
subsequent years of the 10-year outlook
was projected to increase steadily and
reach 4,655 million bus in 2025, still shy
of the 2018 record. MBN

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Milling & Baking News
November 20, 2018 / 37
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Milling & Baking News - November 20, 2018

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