Milling & Baking News - January 1, 2019 - 33

Ingredient Week

Cash Wheat
HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red
winter wheat in Kansas City were unchanged last week. The cash hard red winter wheat market didn't find life until after
the Christmas break as elevators and mills
took holiday downtime. Bids later in the
week spanned a range, but high-side bids
carried the day and secured what wheat
was offered while keeping the basis stable.
Elevators in western Kansas that
opened following Christmas found their
operations curtailed temporarily by a winter storm. Snow and blustery winds kept
wheat inspectors from performing duties
atop rail cars, but loading and transport
resumed toward the week's end.
Business in to-arrive wheat was lacking with the spread between most bids
and offers too wide to bridge.
Following a winter storm, the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, western Kansas, eastern Colorado, most of Nebraska
and all of South Dakota and Montana had
snow cover of varying depths. The heaviest cover was in a band stretching from
western Kansas into central Nebraska. The
snow cover was welcome as it protects the
mostly dormant winter wheat crop from
danger of winterkill. It also ensures moisture as it melts. Unlike most recent years,
the hard red winter wheat region was
nearly free from drought.
The eastern two-thirds of Kansas and
the bodies of Oklahoma and Texas had
no snow cover, but they did receive rain
from storms. Assuming normal weather
from here, the 2019 crop should have the
moisture it needs to make a good start to
the growing season.
Salina wheat bids were 15c under K.C.
March. Hutchinson wheat bids were 10c
under K.C. March. Wichita elevator bids for
nearby were 25c under K.C. March. Gulf
bids on 12%-protein hard red winter wheat
were 140c over K.C. March, unchanged.

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City Mar., cents per bu
Dec. 28 - Change from -
Premium Dec. 21 Dec. 14
Ordinary 110@ 125
-
+5 @ +5
11%
120@ 135
- +10 @ +10
11.2% 120@ 135
- +10 @ +10
11.4% 120@ 135
- +10 @ +10
11.6% 120@ 135
- +10 @ +10
11.8% 120@ 135
- +10 @ +10
12%
130@ 145
-
+5 @ +5
12.2% 130@ 145
-
+5 @ +5
12.4% 130@ 145
-
+5 @ +5
12.6% 130@ 145
-
+5 @ +5
12.8% 130@ 145
-
+5 @ +5
13%
130@ 145
-
+5 @ +5
13.2% 130@ 145
-
+5 @ +5
13.4% 130@ 145
-
+5 @ +5
13.6% 130@ 145
-
+5 @ +5
13.8% 130@ 145
-
+5 @ +5
14%
130@ 145
-
-
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Year
ago
35 @ 50
115 @ 130
140 @ 155
150 @ 165
165 @ 180
179 @ 194
190 @ 205
193 @ 208
193 @ 208
225 @ 240
225 @ 240
235 @ 250
235 @ 250
235 @ 250
235 @ 250
235 @ 250
252 @ 267

HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red
spring wheat were unchanged last week.
Few cars were offered on the spot market during the holiday-shortened week.
Most elevators were closed during
the Christmas break. Mills took holiday
downtime of varying lengths.
Rail car loading was slow to resume
even at those elevators that reopened
after Christmas because of a snowstorm
that left blankets of snow, heavy in areas,
across hard red spring wheat region.
Producers at harvest took advantage
of wide carrying charges in Minneapolis
spring wheat futures to sell wheat ahead
for January-March delivery, and this
wheat was expected to begin to move in
volume as the new year begins.
Wheat prices were disappointing to
farmers. With Minneapolis spring wheat
futures dropping to set new contract
lows, no one was going to sell additional
wheat because they liked the price, but
there may be some liquidation for tax
purposes around the turn of the year.
Additionally, repayment of operating
loans taken from country banks and falling due in the next several weeks may
result in some wheat sales as well.
Expectations remained that spring
wheat growers will increase acreage in
2019 even after the 20% increase seen in
2018. Spring wheat was well positioned
to make inroads at the expense of durum, whose pricing was even more discouraging to producers.
Uncertainty over the soybean trade
with China also may encourage a shift

in acres in 2019 to spring wheat and
corn and away from soybeans across the
northern Plains. Recently, though, indicated price advances for anhydrous ammonia fertilizer, required for wheat and
corn, has narrowed the price advantage
of the latter two crops in relation to soybeans, which may trim some of the expected acreage increase for wheat.
The China trade also was important
for spring wheat growers, Jim Peterson
of the North Dakota Wheat Commission
pointed out. In the 2016-17 crop year, China was the largest foreign buyer of U.S.
spring wheat, trailing only the Philippines. While China's purchases of spring
wheat subsequently declined, it remained
a prominent buyer of spring wheat.
SOFT RED. St. Louis-area mill bids
for nearby were 10@30c over Chicago
March. Chicago mill bids were 10c over
Chicago March. Toledo mill bids for
nearby were 15c over Chicago March;
January-March, 15c over March. Elevator
bids were 10c under Chicago March, but
elevators still were not accepting wheat
deliveries. The Cincinnati elevator bid
was 5c under Chicago March with the
elevator accepting no wheat deliveries
until January at the earliest; new crop
was bid at the Chicago July price. Michigan white wheat mill bids were 10@20c
over Chicago March; soft red wheat mill
bids were 10c under to 15c over March.
Gulf bids on soft red winter wheat for
December were 80c over Chicago March,
unchanged. MBN

No. 1 hard spring

No. 1 hard winter premiums, 12.2%

Basis Minneapolis Mar., delivered Chicago\beyond cents
per bu
Dec. 28
- Change from -
Year
Premium
Dec. 21
Dec. 14
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
...
...
...
...
13%
...
...
...
...
13.5%
85
-
...
...
14%
70 @ 115
-
-25 @ -5
...
14.5%
130
...
+40
...
15%
...
...
...
175 @ 200
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
shipment

Dec. 28
Bid

Offer

No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
December
+140 March 150
January
+140 March 150
February
+142 March 150
March
+146 March 155
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
December
+80 March 84
January
+82 March 86
February
+84 March 88
March
+88 March 93

Year ago
bid

+230 March
+230 March
+230 March
+230 March

+52 March
+52 March
+64 March
+55 March

Basis Kansas City, cents per bu
222
182
142
102
62
D

Cash wheat
Dec. 28 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid Dec. 21 Dec. 14
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
December
6.19
-
-.06
January
6.26
-.02
-.02
February
6.30
-.03
-.01
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
December
1.45
-.10
-.15
January
1.50
-.05
-.14
February
1.55
-.05
-.12
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
December
0.95
-.10
-.17
January
0.95
-.10
-.20
February
1.00
-.08
-.18
Milling & Baking News

Year
ago
5.27
5.27
5.27
1.60
1.55
1.55
1.20
1.15
1.15

January 1, 2019 / 33

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Milling & Baking News - January 1, 2019

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