Milling & Baking News - July 16, 2019 - 27

Data

Smaller wheat carryover forecast
for 2020 boosts wheat futures
Continued from Page 1

bus, down 33 million bus, or 21%, from
158 million bus in 2019. The white
wheat carryover next year was forecast
at 66 million bus, down 22 million, or
25%, from 88 million bus in 2019. The
U.S.D.A. projected durum ending stocks
in 2020 at 60 million bus, up 5 million, or
9%, from 55 million bus in 2019.
Wide swings also were projected
between classes in the forecast for
wheat exports in 2019-20. While overall wheat exports in the new crop year
were projected nearly unchanged (up
1%), hard winter exports were forecast to rise by 18% and soft red winter
exports were projected to fall by 30%
from 2018-19. No change was projected for hard red spring exports in 201920 from the year before while white
wheat exports were forecast down 3%
and durum wheat exports down 9%.
Mr. Meyers suggested there still was
much uncertainty about the higher
U.S.D.A. 2019-20 U.S. wheat export projection. He noted that U.S. wheat has not
been competitive in the world market at
lower values recently, and that it may be
even less competitive after prices rallied
on the U.S.D.A. world wheat data.
Other analysts noted that much of
the trade was focused on U.S.D.A.
corn and soybean projections after
surprising acreage estimates in the
agency's June 28 Acreage report, and
that they may have been caught off
guard by the large changes in world
wheat production forecasts. MBN

unchanged at 140 million bus, with toreduction in forecast production among tal supply forecast at 3,133 million bus,
the world's major exporters, with export down 12 million bus from June but up 15
forecasts lowered for three of the top six million bus from last year.
Projected food use of wheat in 2019exporters, including Russia, the world's
largest wheat exporter, with production 20 was unchanged from June at 965
forecast at 74.2 million tonnes, down 3.8 million bus. Seed use was unchanged
million tonnes, and exports at 34.5 mil- at 68 million bus, and feed and residulion tonnes, down 2.5 million tonnes. al use was raised 10 million bus to 150
Still, Russia's production, if realized, million bus.
The average price of wheat paid
would be the second largest on record.
"Lower forecast production in five to farmers in 2019-20 was forecast at
of the world's six major exporters was $5.20 per bu, up 10c from June.
The July WASDE report featured
really the story," said Paul Meyers,
vice-president of commodity analysis, initial supply and demand projections
for wheat by class for 2019-20. Ending
Foresight Commodity Services, Inc.
In addition to Russia, the U.S.D.A. stocks of hard red winter wheat were
cut its production forecasts for Austra- projected at 426 million bus, down 80
lia, Canada, the European Union and million bus, or 16%, from 506 million bus
Ukraine, leaving Argentina unchanged in 2019. The carryover of hard red spring
and boosting its U.S. production and was forecast at 323 million bus, up 58
export forecasts. Export forecasts for million bus, or 22%, from 265 million bus
Australia and Ukraine were cut along this year. For soft red winter, the 2020
with Russia, while Argentina's and carryover was forecast at 125 million
Canada's export forecasts were unchanged
Wheat supply, disappearance
and the E.U. forecast
was raised slightly.
2019-20* 2018-19 2017-18 2016-17
Production
fore- (million bus) -
casts were lowered
Supply
due to hot, dry weathCarry-in
1,072
1,099
1,181
976
er in Europe and RusCrop
1,921
1,884
1,741 2,309
sia, with lower outImports
140
135
157
118
turn in Australia and
Total
3,133
3,118
3,079 3,402
Canada due mainly
Wheat carryover by classes
Domestic use
to lower area, the
U.S.D.A. said.
Food
965
960
964
949
June 1
2020*
2019
2018
2017
The U.S.D.A. fore68
60
63
61
Seed
- (million bus) -
cast U.S. wheat exFeed
150
91
51
161
Hard winter
426
506
589
446
Total
1,183
1,110
1,079 1,171
ports at 950 million
Soft red
323
158
215
157
bus in 2019-20, up 50
Hard spring
125
265
235
272
Exports
950
936
901
1,051
million bus from June
White
66
88
105
74
and up 14 million bus
Durum
60
55
36
28
Total use
2,133
2,046
1,980 2,222
from 936 million bus
in 2018-19.
Total
1,000
1,072
1,181
976
Ending stocks
1,000
1,072
1,099 1,181
Beginning stocks
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
*forecast
were lowered 30 milSource: U.S. Department of Agriculture
*forecast
lion bus from June
to 1,072 million bus
Domestic wheat use by classes
Wheat exports by classes
based on the June 28
U.S.D.A. Grain Stocks
2019-20* 2018-19 2017-18 2016-17
2019-20* 2018-19 2017-18 2016-17
report estimate of
- (million bus) -
- (million bus) -
June 1 wheat stocks,
Hard winter
501
411
394
488
Hard winter
390
331
371
455
which comprised the
Soft red
207
209
216
288
Soft red
90
128
91
92
2019 carryover.
Hard spring
292
322
288
249
Hard spring
260
259
228
321
U.S. 2019 wheat proWhite
96
81
90
99
White
190
196
193
163
duction was forecast at
Durum
88
87
90
101
Durum
20
22
18
24
1,921 million bus, up
1% from June based on
Total
1,183
1,110
1,078
1,167
Total
950
936
901
1,055
Crop Production report
survey results. Forecast
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
*forecast
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
*forecast
2019-20 imports were
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July 16, 2019 / 27

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Milling & Baking News - July 16, 2019

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