Milling & Baking News - December 17, 2019 - 28

Data

U.S. wheat carryover forecast for
2020 lowered 40 million bushels

61c from $5.16 per bu in 2018-19.
On a by-class basis, hard red
winter wheat carryover on June
1, 2020, was forecast at 483 milWASHINGTON - The U.S. De- "on a strong pace to date, more com- lion bus, down 10 million bus from
partment of Agriculture in its Dec. petitive prices and reduced supplies November; hard red spring at 269
10 World Agricultural Supply and from several major competitors," million bus, down 10 million bus;
Demand Estimates report projected the U.S.D.A. said. Unchanged from soft red winter at 111 million bus;
the carryover of all wheat on June November were beginning stocks unchanged; white wheat at 85 mil1, 2020, at 974 million bus, down 40 at 1,080 million bus, production at lion bus, unchanged; and durum
at 26 million bus, down 20
million bus, or 3.9%, from
million bus.
the November projection,
U.S. corn carryover on Sept.
down 106 million bus, or
Wheat carryover by classes
1, 2020, was projected at 1,910
10%, from 1,080 million
2020*
2019
2018
2017
million bus, unchanged from
bus in 2019 and the low- (million bus) -
November with all supplyest in five years. Corn and
Hard winter
483
516
589
446
and-use estimates also unsoybean 2020 carryover
Soft red
269
263
215
157
changed.
forecasts were unchanged
Hard spring
111
158
235
272
U.S. soybean carryover on
from November.
White
85
88
105
74
Sept. 1, 2020, was projected at
The lower all-wheat carDurum
26
55
36
28
475 million bus, unchanged,
ryover was based on proTotal
974
1,080
1,181
976
as were other supply-and-use
jected lower imports and
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
*projected
forecasts. The average price
higher exports for 2019of soybeans was projected at
20. Imports were forecast at 105 million bus (the lowest 1,920 million bus, food use of wheat $8.85 a bu, down 5c from November
in nine years), down 15 million bus at 955 million bus, seed use at 61 but up 37c from 2018-19.
The U.S.D.A. does not issue upfrom November, including hard red million bus and feed and residual
spring wheat down 5 million bus use at 140 million bus. The average dated corn and soybean production
and durum down 10 million bus. Ex- all-wheat price paid to farmers in forecasts in December. The next reports were forecast at 975 million bus, 2019-20 was projected at $4.55 a bu, visions will be in the annual report
up 25 million bus from November down 5c from November and down in January. MBN

U.S.D.A. forecasts lower sugar
production, higher imports
WASHINGTON - The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its Dec.
10 World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates report, again
slashed its forecast of 2019-20 U.S.
sugar production but raised imports
from Mexico sharply to bring the
ending stocks-to-use ratio to 13.5%
from 10.5% in November.
For the second consecutive month
the U.S.D.A. sharply reduced U.S.
sugar production. Beet sugar output
was forecast at 4,367,000 tons, down
220,625 tons, or 4.8%, from November, and cane sugar was projected at
3,913,000 tons, down 110,760 tons,
or 2.8%. Total sugar production was
forecast at 8,280,000 tons, down
332,000 tons, or 3.9%, from November and down 716,000 tons, or 8%,
from 8,996,000 tons in 2018-19.
"(Sugar beet) yield and area harvested forecasts from last month's
Crop Production report are adjusted
down on processors' updated forecasts in the latest Sweetener Market Data," the U.S.D.A. said. "Beet
pile shrink is forecast at a relatively
low 4% due to the shortened slice
28 / December 17, 2019

Milling & Baking News

campaign. Sucrose recovery is unchanged from last month."
For cane sugar, lower forecasts
were made for all three producing
states - Florida, Louisiana and
Texas.
If realized, total U.S. sugar production would be the lowest since
2010-11, with beet sugar the lowest
since 2008-09 and cane sugar the
lowest since 2016-17.
Sugar imports from Mexico were
projected at 1,827,000 tons, up 708,875
tons, or 63%, from November and
up 827,000 tons, or 83%, from 201819. Only minor changes were made
to tariff-rate quota imports, forecast
at 1,614,000 tons, down 7,000 tons
from November, with other program
imports unchanged at 350,000 tons
and high-tier imports unchanged at
70,000 tons. Total imports in 2019-20
were forecast at 3,860,000 tons, up
701,000 tons, or 22%, from October
and up 790,000 tons, or 26%, from
2018-19.
Total supply was forecast at
13,920,000 tons, up 370,000 tons, or
2.7%, from November but down

154,000 tons, or 1.1%, from 14,074,000
tons in 2018-19.
There were no changes made to
forecast total use of sugar in 201920 at 12,265,000 tons, including deliveries for food at 12,125,000 tons,
exports at 35,000 tons and other at
105,000 tons.
Only minor changes were made
for 2018-19 with total domestic production at 8,996,000 tons, up 2,000
tons from November, imports at
3,070,000 tons, unchanged, total use
at 12,294,000 tons, up 1,000 tons, and
ending stocks at 1,780,000 tons, up
1,000 tons. The ending stocks-to-use
ratio was unchanged at 14.5%.
There were no changes to 2018-19
estimates for Mexico and very minor changes for 2019-20. Production
for the current year was unchanged
at 5,772,000 tonnes, actual weight,
imports were unchanged at 85,000
tonnes, domestic use was unchanged
at 4,492,000 tonnes, and exports
were raised 5,000 tonnes to 1,603,000
tonnes. Ending stocks were raised a
like amount to 930,000 tonnes.
Mexico sugar exports to the United States were projected at 1,563,000
tonnes, up 606,680 tonnes from November, with exports to non-U.S. destinations lowered to 40,043 tonnes. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

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Milling & Baking News - December 17, 2019

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