Milling & Baking News - January 14, 2020 - 42

Ingredient Week

Wheat Futures
Wheat futures advanced in a trading
week that culminated in a flurry of government reports on acreage, stockpiles
and ending stocks. Futures also received
support from rising global prices seen
in Egypt's purchase of Black Sea region
wheat and from the easing of concerns
over Middle East tension.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on
Jan. 10 in its Winter Wheat and Canola
Seedlings report estimated the area planted to winter wheat for harvest in 2020 at
30,804,000 acres, down 355,000 acres, or
1%, from 2019, and down 1,738,000 acres,
or 5%, from 2018. It was the second-smallest area planted to winter wheat since
1909, when records began to be kept. The
U.S.D.A.'s figure was near the low end of
analysts' pre-report expectations, which
ranged from 30 million to 32.2 million
acres. A lower acreage figure was mostly
priced into the market already, but the
seedings report nonetheless provided a
boost to at least Kansas City futures.
Meanwhile, the U.S.D.A. lowered its
forecast for the carryover of wheat on
June 1, 2020, to 965 million bus, down
9 million bus from the December projection and down 115 million bus, or
11%, from 1,080 million bus in 2019.
The U.S.D.A. raised its forecast for feed

and residual use of wheat in 2019-20
10 million bus from December, to 150
million bus, on lower-than-expected
second-quarter stocks. Additionally, the
U.S.D.A. lowered its forecast for 2019-20
seed use by 1 million bus, reflecting lower winter wheat seeded area for 2020-21.
The U.S.D.A.'s forecast for 2019-20 food
use of wheat was unchanged at 955 million bus, compared with 955 million bus
in 2018-19 and 964 million bus in 2017-18.
The U.S.D.A. forecast 2019-20 world
wheat ending stocks at 288.08 million
tonnes, down 1.42 million tonnes from
its December projection but still a record
and up 10.02 million tonnes, or 4%, from
278.06 million tonnes in 2018-19.
The U.S.D.A. indicated net export sales
of wheat during the week ended Jan. 2
were a marketing-year-low 80,600 tonnes;
the total was down 74% from the previous week and down 87% from the prior
four-week average. MBN

Millfeed
Nearby prices were mostly lower last
week, as were full first-quarter values and
February-March packages in some areas.
The market continued to weaken, a
trend initiated by better-than-expected
runtimes during the prior two holidayshortened weeks. Flour mills continued to

Wheat futures

Kansas City wheat futures
March contract, per bu

$ per bu; change in cents per bu
Jan. 10
Kansas City
March
May
July
September
Chicago
March
May
July
September
Minneapolis
March
May
July
September

4.94¾
5.02¼
5.09¾
5.17¼

see strong grind in the first 10 days of 2020.
At the same time, usage and feed demand were sharply lower. Demand was
lower for competing soy hulls, dried distillers grains and corn gluten feed as well,
although manufacturers of those products typically have more storage space
and see a more muted price reaction.
Many buyers were well stocked with
wheat midds, having filled their bins
prior to Christmas to avoid shortages.
But unseasonably warm temperatures
did not trigger the typical winter uptick
in use of midds or finished feed, which
caught the market off guard. Many buyers consistently delayed loads and "it
kind of snowballed for the last two or
three weeks," a trader said of the excess
production foisted into the market.
That dynamic was expected to remain in
place until feed mixers and other end users chewed through a significant portion of
their stockpiles and cold weather returned
to major livestock production areas.
Millfeed was $110 a ton in Kansas City
and $114 in Minneapolis, on a rail basis,
compared with corn at $140 a ton and
sorghum at $120 a ton, both K.C. Gluten
feed was steady at $185 a ton, distillers'
dried grain was steady at $160 a ton and
dehydrated alfalfa was steady at $300 a
ton, all K.C. MBN

Season's
Low

$6.50

- Change from -
Jan. 3 Dec. 27

Week's
High
Low

Year
ago

High

+19¾c
+15c
+19½c +14¼c
+19½c +14¼c
+19¼c +14¾c

4.98¼
5.05
5.12
5.19

4.69½
4.77½
4.85
4.92¾

5.04½
5.16
5.25¾
5.37¾

6.59
6.52¼
6.40
6.29¼

(08-06-18)
(08-06-18)
(08-07-18)
(08-06-18)

3.97½
4.08¾
4.19
4.31¾

(09-03-19)
(09-03-19)
(09-03-19)
(09-04-19)

5.68½
5.70½
5.72
5.77¼

5.45¼
5.48½
5.51¾
5.58½

5.19½
5.25
5.29½
5.37¾

6.37
6.34½
6.19
6.19

(08-02-18)
(08-02-18)
(08-07-18)
(08-02-18)

4.57¾
4.63½
4.18½
4.76¾

(09-03-19)
(09-03-19)
(05-13-19)
(09-03-19)

$5.90
$5.30
$4.70
$4.10
$3.50

5.64½
5.66½
5.68¼
5.73¾

+10c
+8¾c
+7¾c
+6½c

5.58¼ +10¾c
5.66½ +9½c
5.73¾
+9c
5.81¼ +7¾c

+8¼c
+8c
+8½c
+9c
+4¾c
+4¾c
+4½c
+4¼c

5.66¼
5.75¼
5.82
5.89

5.42¼
5.52¼
5.60½
5.69

5.70
5.74¼
5.80¾
5.88

6.73½
6.72
6.75
6.08

(08-07-18)
(05-29-18)
(05-29-18)
(06-03-19)

5.00¼
5.11½
5.06
5.31½

(09-03-19)
(09-03-19)
(04-30-19)
(09-03-19)

J

A

J

O

Previous Year

Current Year

Chicago wheat futures
March contract, per bu
$6.30
$5.80
$5.30

Bulk middlings

$4.80

$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted
Spot
Kansas City
110 @ 120
Southwest, f.o.b. truck
150 @ 160
Minneapolis
114 @ 124
Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck110 @ 120
Chicago West
127 @ 137
Central states, f.o.b truck 125 @ 135
Buﬀalo
120 @ 130
Southeast
130 @ 140
N. & S. California
129 @ 144
Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck 125 @ 140
Paciﬁc Northwest
115 @ 125
Upper Midwest, sacked
320
Wheat germ
200 @ 220
42 / January 14, 2020

Jan.
110@
150@
114@
110@
127@
120@
120@
130@
134@
130@
115@

Milling & Baking News

120
160
124
120
137
130
130
140
149
145
125

- Change from -
Jan. 3 Dec. 27
-25@ -35 -25@ -35
-25@ -25 -30@ -30
-16@ -21 -20@ -25
-16@ -21 -20@ -25
-16@ -21 -20@ -25
-5@ -5 -30@ -30
-5@ -5 -20@ -20
-15@ -15 -20@ -20
-
-
-
-
-
-

Year
ago
95@ 105
135@ 145
84@ 94
80@ 90
97@ 107
85@ 95
90@ 100
100@ 110
134@ 149
130@ 145
100@ 110

$4.30
J

Jan.-Mar.
100@ 110
150@ 160
104@ 114
100@ 110
117@ 127
115@ 125
105@ 115
125@ 135
134@ 149
130@ 145
110@ 120

Apr.-June
70@ 80
120@ 130
89@ 99
85@ 95
102@ 112
100@ 110
85@ 95
110@ 120
129@ 144
125@ 140
100@ 110

July-Sept.
70@ 80
120@ 130
89@ 99
85@ 95
102@ 112
95@ 105
85@ 95
100@ 110
124@ 139
120@ 135
100@ 110

A

J

Previous Year

O
Current Year

Minneapolis wheat futures
March contract, per bu
$6.80
$6.10
$5.40
$4.70
J

A

J

Previous Year

O
Current Year

bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - January 14, 2020

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