Milling & Baking News - January 28, 2020 - 31

Weather Outlook

than usual. The anomalies set records
of extreme, and some of the cold water
southwest of Sumatra worked its way
into Indonesia's archipelago. The cold
water from the eastern Indian Ocean
into the Indonesian archipelago resulted
in suppressed rainfall in Indonesia and
northern Australia. The persistence of
this feature resulted in prolonged dryness in southern Indonesia even though
there was no El Niño event. Scientists
used to believe that the only way to get
drought in Indonesia was from El Niño.
This year proved that to be wrong.
The unusually warm ocean water
in the western Indian Ocean and cold
water in the east is called the positive
phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
This year's temperatures were so
warm in the western Indian Ocean
that record-setting rainfall occurred in
eastern Africa, and flooding was horrific in many areas. India's monsoon
was so enhanced with moisture from
the warm ocean water that the seasonal rains had a difficult time shutting down. Then there was Indonesia
and northern Australia, which both
suffered from serious dryness early in
the year. Both areas had a tough time

getting rain to fall even though there
was no El Niño.
The Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon was breaking down in the fourth
quarter of 2019. Ocean temperatures in
the western Indian Ocean were cooling while warming was evolving from
the eastern Indian Ocean into the Indonesian archipelago. As a result of this
change, rain began falling in southern
Indonesia. Rain during the 30-day period ending in late December was occurring more routinely because of the
change in ocean temperature anomalies
and a southward shift in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which
we will have to cover in another article.
Australia's drought might not have
prevailed as extremely as it did in 2019
had it not been for the record positive
IOD and a pool of significantly warm
ocean water near the equator near the
International Dateline. The cool water
northwest of Australia and to the east of
Sumatra, Indonesia, and the warm water near the International Dateline and
in the western Indian Ocean were helping to create a massive region of higherthan-usual pressure over northern Australia and southern Indonesia. The high

pressure system prevailed for most of
the Southern Hemisphere spring and
early summer, preventing rain from
developing in Australia's key grain, oilseed and cotton areas in the south and
east making the 2017-18 drought turn
into a third year. The system also helped
push the drought to record proportions
in some eastern areas in Australia.
It will take a little longer, but as IOD
breaks down and ocean water north of
Australia warms up, the high-pressure
system in Indonesia and northern Australia will break down more completely. Rain should begin falling in northern
and eastern Australia as well as southern Indonesia over the next few weeks
as these changes prevail. Drought may
not completely end in Australia, but
the prolonged rain-free period and excessive heat should soon abate. MBN

Drew Lerner, president
of World Weather, Inc., is
a contributing editor at
Sosland Publishing Company.

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Milling & Baking News

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Milling & Baking News - January 28, 2020

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