Milling & Baking News - February 25, 2020 - 32

Weather Outlook

Brazil's hydrologic drought from
2014 eases due to rainy season
BY DREW LERNER

Droughts in Brazil are rare, especially in the heart of its crop productionregion. One such drought that occurred in 2014 was quite severe, and
it led to unprecedented low-water
reservoir levels from Bahia into São
Paulo, Brazil.
The nation was in a water crisis
that year with much talk about major
metropolitan areas possibly running
out of water within a few months if
the rainy season of 2014-15 did not
perform better than in the previous
year. Some would say a miracle occurred in that year that managed to

while in October and November when
seasonal rains failed to kick in normally. There were timely rain events
to support agriculture and the spring
planting of soybeans, corn, rice and
other crops, but the rain amounts remained well below average, which is
quite similar to that which occurred in
many of the previous years.
Crops have performed relatively
well since 2014 due to timely rainfall, but the water reservoir levels
were still quite low even though
seasonal rains had improved. Part
of the problem with water supply in
Brazil was high population and high

Per cent of normal
rainfall for Jan. 1 to
Feb. 17, 2020
generate just enough rain to support
human consumption and manufacturing needs. Effects from that drought
still remain today, but the 2019-20
rainy season has brought on the most
significant runoff and improvement in
water supply seen in years.
It has taken nearly six years, but
the water reservoir levels in São
Paulo and southern Minas Gerais
are finally coming close to "normal"
capacity. Areas to the north in northern Minas Gerais and Bahia are still
struggling with low-water supply,
but the situation is far better than it
was six years ago.
Rainfall in Brazil this summer has
been favorably distributed. The year
started out like many of those since
2014 with lackluster precipitation that
disfavored São Paulo and southern
Minas Gerais. Fear of another drought
year like 2014 surfaced for a little
32 / February 25, 2020

Milling & Baking News

demand for water, and part of the
problem was temperature. Brazil,
like the rest of the world, has experienced warmer temperatures, and
those temperatures have promoted
higher evaporation rates throughout
the year. Greater evaporation while
rainfall is below average can lead to
periods of dryness and below average runoff. The combination of poor
runoff and high demand for drinking
water and water for manufacturing
left water reservoir levels improving
at a snail's pace.
This year's rainy season is the first
in many years in which January and
February rainfall has been significant
enough from parts of Bahia to northern São Paulo to support consistent
runoff. Rainfall has been nearly twice
that of normal since Jan. 1, and some
areas in southern Minas Gerais have
reported 2 to 3.5 times the usual rain-

fall. The best part of this scenario is
that the ground has not had a chance
to significantly dry out during the
past few weeks. Each significant rain
event has managed to bring enough
moisture to saturate the soil and
induce a new round of runoff, the
heaviest of which occurred earlier in
February.
El Niño events of 2014-16 and
2018-19 were responsible for erratic
rain that would briefly improve water supply only to be followed by
more net drying conditions. The rain
events would improve soil conditions
and runoff, but only in spurts so that
water supply improved, but not nearly fast enough to seriously outpace
demand.
Water levels creeped higher during two minor La Niña events of
2016-17 and 2017-18, but unlike most
La Niña events the rainfall was not
as significant as it usually is, which
led to partial improvements in water
supply until the El Niño of 2018-19
arrived, which cut off rainfall once
again, bringing water levels down
one more time. Some water reservoir levels fell back to around 50%
of capacity one year ago, raising new
fears of water shortages since another rainy season would not begin
until October 2019.
This year's rain event has occurred
without La Niña or El Niño. That is
quite encouraging because it suggests the multi-year drought environment that had been prevailing may
be breaking down. Scientists now are
suggesting La Niña conditions may return to Brazil a year from now. If that
occurs and the event is significantly
strong, there could be another year of
greater rainfall than that of this year,
and that may finally bring all of the remaining low-water reservoirs back to
full or nearly full capacity.
Water reservoir levels today are
close to normal in many São Paulo and
southern Minas Gerais locations with
levels varying from 84% to 100% of
capacity except the Sistema Cantareira
(one of the largest reservoir systems
in center south Brazil), which was at
53.8% of capacity on Feb. 17. These
figures are up from the range of 7% to
40% in October 2014 with the Sistema
Rio Grande near São Paulo at 70% of
capacity at that time.
The hydrologic drought is not over
in Bahia or northern Minas Gerais
where consistent rain of significance
has not been noted for multiple
years. However, water levels are
now up to near 40% in Bahia, which
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