Milling & Baking News - February 25, 2020 - 42

Data

Wheat, soybean export forecasts
for 2019-20 raised from month ago
KANSAS CITY - The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in
its Feb. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, made minor changes from its January forecasts that mostly were focused on exports.
U.S.D.A. carryover forecasts for U.S. wheat and soybeans
were below the average of trade expectations, but the corn
forecast was above. U.S. wheat, corn and soybean futures
were trading modestly lower shortly after the report was
released at 11 a.m. Central Time.
Report highlights follow.
U.S. wheat carryover lower
The carryover of U.S. wheat in June 1, 2020, was forecast at 940 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 2.6%, from
January and down 13% from 1,080 million bus in 2018-19.
The change from January was the result of a 25-million-bu
increase in exports, forecast at 1,000 million bus in 2019-20,
and compared with 936 million bus in 2018-19. June 1, 2020,
ending stocks by class were forecast at 484 million bus for
hard red winter wheat, down 5 million bus from January, at
249 million bus for hard red spring, down 15 million bus, at
106 million bus for soft red winter, unchanged, at 80 million
bus for white wheat, down 5 million bus, and at 21 million
bus for durum, unchanged.
"The only supply or use category that was changed this

month was a 25-million-bu increase in exports reflecting
growing competitiveness in international markets," the
U.S.D.A. said.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2020, was forecast at 1,892
million bus, unchanged from January but down 15% from
2,221 million bus in 2018-19. Corn exports in 2019-20 were
forecast at 1,725 million bus, down 50 million bus from

Wheat supply, disappearance
Supply
Carry-in
Crop
Imports
Total

2019-20* 2018-19 2017-18
- (million bus) -
1,080
1,920
105
3,105

1,099
1,885
135
3,119

1,181
1,741
158
3,080

976
2,309
117
3,402

955
60
150
1,165

955
59
90
1,103

964
63
47
1,075

949
61
161
1,171

Exports

1,000

936

906

1,051

Total use

2,165

2,039

1,981

2,222

940

1,080

1,099

1,181

Domestic use
Food
Seed
Feed
Total

Ending stocks

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

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110 S. Water Street | Augusta, MI 49012
269-731-4141 or 1-800-KNAPPEN | Fax: 269-731-5441
www.knappen.com

42 / February 25, 2020

Milling & Baking News

2016-17

*forecast

January, "reflecting the slow pace of shipments through
January," the U.S.D.A. said. A like increase in forecast use
of corn for ethanol, forecast at 5,425 million bus, offset the
reduction in exports, resulting in no net change to carryover. There were no other changes from January for corn.
U.S. soybean carryover lower
The carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2020, was projected at 425 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 11%, from
January and down 53% from 909 million bus in 2019. The
reduction was based on a like increase in 2019-20 exports,
forecast at 1,825 million bus, up 2.8% from January and up
4.4% from 1,748 million bus in 2018-19, "partly reflecting
increased imports for China," the U.S.D.A. said. There were
no other changes from January in soybean supply and use
forecasts, but the average price paid to farmers in 2019-20
was lowered 25c, to $8.75 per bu.
Key world supply/demand data
World wheat ending stocks were forecast at 288.03 million tonnes in 2019-20, down 50,000 tonnes from January
but up 9.76 million tonnes from 2018-19. World wheat exports were forecast at 182.82 million tonnes, up 1.75 million tonnes from January as higher forecast exports for the
United States, Kazakhstan and the European Union more
than offset lower exports from Canada and Pakistan.
Global corn ending stocks were forecast at 296.84 million
tonnes, down 970,000 tonnes from January and down 23.63
million tonnes, or 7%, from 320.47 million tonnes in 2018-19.
World soybean ending stocks were forecast at 98.86 million tonnes, up 2.19 million tonnes from January but down
12.36 million tonnes, or 11%, from 111.22 million tonnes in
2018-19. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.knappen.com http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - February 25, 2020

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