Milling & Baking News - April 21, 2020 - 30

Weather Outlook

Southern Brazil yield cuts may
foreshadow US crop stress
BY DREW LERNER

Brazil's southern grain and oilseed
producing state of Rio Grande do
Sul has struggled with dryness this
summer. Resultant yield losses have
surprised many producers and market analysts, but the nation is still
expected to produce a large soybean
crop. The yield losses are the greatest seen since 2012 and raise a flag
for possible US dryness in the coming summer.
How in the world does Rio Grande
do Sul have anything to do with US
summer weather? Well, there is an
association between the two. The relationship has not been proven well

and production was minimal for
a long time. In recent decades Rio
Grande do Sul took a liking to soybean planting, and, as time moved
along, it has proven to be a very successful crop in the nation and one
that has made many farmers rich.
Data prior to 1970 have proven to be
largely useless because of poor statistics, but the data collected since
that time have proved useful and
have provided greater insight into
the relationship between dryness in
southern Brazil and that in the United States.
This year 's drought in Rio Grande
do Sul will be the eighth time that

enough to use it as a great forecasting tool, but each time Rio Grande
do Sul experiences notable dryness
that harms production it raises the
need for further research. The correlation between the two major soybean producers dates back to 2005,
when another drought hit southern
Brazil. At that time, World Weather,
Inc. began exploring correlating that
dryness with summer dryness that
seemed to follow in the US summer
season in a part of key production
areas east of the Rocky Mountains.
A gauge for dryness and its significance was needed for the scientific study to have verifiable parameters, so World Weather, Inc. chose
to look at soybean and corn yields
in Rio Grande do Sul. Every time
a significant deviation from trend
yields has taken place in Rio Grande
do Sul it has resulted from dryness
at reproduction.
Soybean production in southern
Brazil was not always a big attraction,

a significant drop in soybean yield
has occurred since 1970. The other
seven years were 1979, 1986, 1988,
1991, 2004, 2005 and 2012. Do some
of those years sound familiar? They
should because 1988 and 2012 were
significant dry years in key US crop
areas. Dryness also was noted in
1991 in the US Midwest and in the
southeastern United States in 1986.
US dryness also developed in
2005 after a wet start to the calendar
year, and 2005 is already highly correlated with 2020 because of ocean
temperature anomalies in the Gulf
of Alaska, El Niño-like conditions
that gave way to La Niña-like conditions over the calendar year (as expected in 2020) and a split jet stream
pattern over North America during
the winter and spring similar to
this year. Areas from eastern Texas
and the western Delta to Michigan
and Wisconsin were in a regional
drought starting in May and continued into December 2005. We are not

30 / April 21, 2020

Milling & Baking News

expecting that to repeat, but some
dryness is possible this summer.
Rio Grande do Sul yield losses
also occurred in both 1978 and 1979,
but the greater departure from trend
yield occurred in 1979. Dryness was
not evident in the United States during the 1979 growing season, making that year the greatest failing in
the proposed relationship between
poor soybean yields in Rio Grande
do Sul and dryness in a part of the
US key summer crop region.
The 1978 deviation from yields
in Rio Grande do Sul was not as
significant as that in 1979, but it
does fit the criteria for this study.
Weather in 1978 in the United States
was only dry biased in the southern Plains, and that dryness was already in place at the start of 1978,
which may disqualify that year for
verification in the relationship.
We also looked at 2004, which
also had Rio Grande do Sul soybean yields down significantly from
the previous trend, but 2005 was
the greater anomalous year for the
study. The year 2005 fit our study
and theory quite well, but 2004 dryness mostly was confined to the
northern Plains and western United
States, leaving most other areas favorably moist. The dryness was already in place when the year began.
Overall, we looked at 1978, 1979,
1986, 1988, 1991, 2004, 2005 and 2012,
all of which had soybean yields in
Rio Grande do Sul significantly lower
than the trend for that year. Out of
those years, 1986, 1988, 1991, 2005
and 2012 verified with dryness in a
part of key US crop areas east of the
Great Plains. That makes five out of
eight years fitting the scenario, meaning 63% of the time dryness occurs in
a part of the key US crop areas in the
summer that follows a below-trend
soybean yield in Rio Grande do Sul. If
we include the summers of 2004 and
1978, in which dryness occurred in
southern Texas and from the northern
Plains in the western United States,
respectively, then we end up with
six out of eight years there was some
verification, which is 75% of the time.
Even though the statistics are
more supportive of the theory if we
include 2004 and 1978, we are opting to not include them because the
US weather in those summers really
did not fit well. We also determined
that 1978 yields in Rio Grande do
Sul did not deviate far enough from
trend to really qualify for this study.
By tossing out 1978 completely we
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com


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Milling & Baking News - April 21, 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - April 21, 2020

Milling & Baking News - April 21, 2020 - 1
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_09_27
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_09_13
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_08_30
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_08_02
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_07_19
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_07_05
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_06_21
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_06_07
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_05_24
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_05_10
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_04_26
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_04_12
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_02_16
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_02_02
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_01_19
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2016_01_05
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_12_22
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_12_08
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_06_09
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_04_28
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_03_31
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/mbn/2015_03__03
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_01_20
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2015_01_06
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_12_23
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/mbn_2014_11_25
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_11_11
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_10_28
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/214_08_19
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_07_22
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_03_18
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_02_18
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_01_21
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2014_01_07
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_12_24
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_12_10
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_09_17
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_09_03
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_08_20
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_08-06
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_07_23
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_07_09
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_06_25
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_05_28
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_03_19
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_01_22
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2013_01_08
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_12_25
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_12_11
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_11_27
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_09_18
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_08_21
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2012_01_24
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2011_12_27
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2011_03_22
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2011_02_22
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2010_03_23
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2010_03_09
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2010_02_23
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2010_01_26
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2004_08_17
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2004_08_10
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2004_08_03
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