Milling & Baking News - May 19, 2020 - 28

Data

of total production in January-March,
against 10.7% in the fourth quarter and
10.3% a year ago.
Again in second place was California, turning out 8,172,000 cwts, up 4.4%
from 7,826,000 a year ago. It was up
0.5% from 8,133,000 cwts in the fourth
quarter. Grind rate in California in the
current quarter was 87.6%, against
87.2% in the fourth quarter and 84.3% a
year ago. The state represented 7.6% of
the national output in January-March,
compared with 7.5% in the fourth quarter and 7.6% a year ago.
Repeating in third was Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Utah and Washington
producing 7,839,000 cwts, gaining
7.1% from 7,319,000 a year ago. It was
up 7.2% from 7,312,000 cwts in the
fourth quarter. Mill grind averaged
80.9% in January-March, against 75.5%

in the fourth quarter and 76.6% a year
back. This state grouping represented
7.3% of the national output in JanuaryMarch, against 7.2% in the fourth quarter and 7.1% a year ago. Kansas ranked
next at 7,197,000 cwts milled in the quarter; North Dakota was fifth at 6,557,000.
They were followed by New Jersey
and New York, 6,288,000 cwts; Missouri, 6,220,000; Texas, 6,172,000; Ohio,
5,950,000; Pennsylvania, 5,691,000;
Minnesota, 5,506,000; Kentucky and
Tennessee, 4,296,000; Florida, Georgia
and South Carolina, 4,249,000; Iowa
and Nebraska, 3,952,000; North Carolina, 3,521,000; Colorado and Oklahoma, 3,483,000; Maryland and Virginia,
2,871,000; and Michigan, 2,351,000. Other states were at 5,295,000 cwts.
US total capacity in January-March
was 1,614,050 cwts, a decrease of 33,781

from a year back. Leading the decreases was Minnesota, 26,700 cwts, followed by Florida, Georgia and South
Carolina, 6,400; Kansas, 6,000; Ohio,
4,500; Maryland and Virginia, 4,000;
Pennsylvania, 2,400; California, 1,071;
and Kentucky and Tennessee, 150. Net
gains were shown by Illinois, Indiana
and Wisconsin at 16,300 over a year ago
and New Jersey and New York at 1,200
over a year ago.
January-March capacity also was
down 35,700 cwts from the fourth
quarter. Over this period Minnesota
decreased 18,000 cwts; Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin were down 13,700,
partly offsetting an earlier gain (30,000
cwts between the second and third
quarters last year); and Maryland and
Virginia were down the already indicated 4,000. MBN

USDA forecasts '21 wheat carryover
at 909 million bus, down 7%

use of wheat in 2020-21 at a record 964
million bus, up 2 million bus from the
forecast for 2019-20. The food use projection for 2019-20 was raised 7 million
The USDA projected wheat production in bus from April because the National
WASHINGTON - The US Department
of Agriculture in its initial supply-and- 2020 at 1,866 million bus, down 54 million Agricultural Statistics Service in its
demand projections for wheat in 2020-21 bus, or 3%, from 1,920 million bus in 2019. Flour Milling Products report issued
said there would be smaller supplies, de- The USDA in its May Crop Production re- May 1 indicated that "an unusually
creased domestic use and smaller ending port forecast the 2020 all-winter wheat crop large volume of wheat was ground for
at 1,255 million bus. That forecast was the flour in the first quarter of 2020."
stocks than forecast for the current year.
The USDA projected seed use of
The USDA on May 12 forecast the carry- first survey-based winter wheat projection
over of wheat in the United States on June of the season. The figures inferred a spring wheat in 2020-21 at 61 million bus, up 1
1, 2021, at 909 million bus, down 69 million wheat, including durum, production fore- million from 2019-20.
Feed and residual use of wheat in
bus, or 7%, from 978 million bus as the pro- cast at 611 million bus based on the USDA's
jection for 2020. If the forecast is realized, durum and other-spring plantings forecasts 2020-21 was projected at 100 million
the 2021 wheat carryover would be the as contained in the Prospective Plantings bus, down 35 million bus from 2019-20.
Domestic use of wheat in 2020-21 was
smallest since 752 million bus in 2015 and report issued at the end of March, average
projected at 1,125 million bus, down 32
compare with the recent five-year average abandonment and trendline yields.
Wheat imports in 2020-21 were forecast million bus from 1,157 million bus as
carryover supply of 1,063 million bus.
at 140 million bus compared forecast for 2019-20.
The USDA forecast wheat exports in
with the projection for the curWheat supply, disappearance
2020-21 at 950 million bus, down 20 milrent year at 105 million bus.
The total wheat supply in lion bus from the projection for 2019-20.
2020-21* 2019-20* 2018-19 2017-18
2020-21 was forecast at 2,984 The latter projection at 970 million bus
- (million bus) -
million bus, down 121 million was lowered 15 million bus from the
Supply
bus, or 4%, from 3,105 million April outlook.
Carry-in
978
1,080
1,099
1,181
Total wheat disappearance in the
bus in 2019-20.
Crop
1,866
1,920
1,885
1,741
The USDA projected food United States in 2020-21 was forecast
Imports
140
105
135
158
at 2,075 million bus,
Total
2,984
3,105
3,119
3,080
down 52 million
Wheat carryover by classes
bus, or 2%, from the
Domestic use
projection for the
Food
964
962
955
964
May 12
2020*
2019
2018
2017
current year at 2,127
Seed
61
60
59
63
- (million bus) -
million bus.
Feed
100
135
90
47
Hard winter
510
516
581
589
The USDA foreTotal
1,125
1,157
1,103
1,075
Soft red
118
158
205
215
cast the average
Hard spring
243
263
191
235
Exports
950
970
936
906
farm price of wheat
White
86
88
87
105
in 2020-21 at $4.60 a
Durum
21
55
35
36
Total use
2,075
2,127
2,039
1,981
bu, unchanged from
the projection for
Total
978
1,080
1,099
1,181
Ending stocks
909
978
1,080
1,099
the current year and
Source: US Department of Agriculture
*projected
compared with $5.16
Source: US Department of Agriculture
*projected
in 2018-19. MBN
28 / May 19, 2020

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Milling & Baking News - May 19, 2020

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