Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 7

Editorial

Economic realities poised to become harsher

C

oming off the highs of extraordinary second- the largest in eight years. The food at home price index
quarter financial results, executives from rose 4.6% over the past year, according to Consumer
many leading food companies have expressed Price Index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
confidence about how well their businesses are po- Additionally, while food-at-home spending often is
sitioned for the post-pandemic world. What many boosted during recessions by a demand drop in the
executives have failed to adequately address is the foodservice business, it's unlikely such a shift will be
risk businesses face during the remainder of the pan- forthcoming from the already beleaguered restaurant
demic. While it is impossible to predict with certainty sector. To the contrary, to the degree restaurant traffic
what will transpire over coming weeks and months, continues to slowly (or not so slowly) recover ahead,
the risk is high that economic conditions will be more retail demand will face still another headwind.
difficult than over the past several months.
Mr. Portalatin said The NPD Group already is seeDespite millions of job losses and extraordinary un- ing signs consumer behavior is changing in ways
certainty about the economic outlook, retail sales dur- unfavorable for sales volume. Food waste avoidance
ing the pandemic have been more
has become a greater priority and
With congressional leaders
than strong. Walmart Inc. and Taris affecting purchasing decisions.
unable to reach agreement
get Corp. each recently announced
Consumers are worried.
earnings up about 80% and strong
"We did find in a weekly suron a new stimulus package,
sales gains. Many factors contribvey in April 40% of consumers
bakers and other food
uted to the strength of the busireported being concerned about
manufacturers should brace
ness, including more eating at
for what may be a rocky road. having enough money for food,"
home, but C. Douglas McMillon,
he said.
president and chief executive officer at Walmart, said
Many consumers were more than concerned. The
no tailwind was more important for Walmart results NPD Group witnessed a large increase in food bank
than the fiscal stimulus lining the pockets of Ameri- usage. In June, 10% of consumers said they had used
cans. As stimulus spending tapered during the quarter, a food bank, and 44% were first time users.
Walmart sales normalized somewhat, he added.
An area of stepped-up demand may be programs
With congressional leaders unable to reach agree- like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
ment on a new stimulus package, bakers and other (SNAP). Going into the pandemic, utilization of fedfood manufacturers should brace for what may be a eral food and nutrition assistance was at more than a
rocky road. Consumer spending is expected to take 10-year low. The decline was attributed to the steadily
a major hit, offering a truer representation of the na- growing economy and the decline in the unemploytion's injured economic condition.
ment rate to 3.7% from 7.4% over the time period.
The impact on food demand, including for baked SNAP spending fell 30% between fiscal 2013 and fisfoods, could be significant. Unlike earlier periods of cal 2019. The decline ended abruptly in April 2020,
economic weakness, food spending during the Great when SNAP enrollment jumped by about 6 million to
Recession of 2008-09 came under pressure, measured 43 million people, a 15% increase in a single month.
both in sales volume and dollar sales.
Shifts of this magnitude in the economic profile of
The hit could be even harder this time around, based consumers usually unfold over the course of months
on recent analysis by David Portalatin, vice president and years, not days and weeks. The coronavirus panof The NPD Group. Speaking Aug. 26 at the Trends and demic has demanded a degree of agility for grainInnovations seminar hosted by Food Business News, sis- based foods executives never witnessed before. Given
ter publication to Milling & Baking News, Mr. Portalatin the worrisome near-term economic outlook, now is
said the effects of millions of job losses will be com- not the time for anyone in the industry to let their
pounded by a significant upward bump in food prices, guard down. MBN
WE'RE EAGER TO GET YOUR FEEDBACK: E-mail editor@sosland.com or write to us at
Milling & Baking News, 4801 Main Street, Suite 650, Kansas City, MO, 64112
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Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020

Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 1
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 1
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 2
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 3
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 4
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 5
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 6
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 7
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 8
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 9
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 10
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 11
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 12
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 13
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 14
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 15
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 16
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 17
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 18
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 19
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 20
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 21
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 22
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 23
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 24
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 25
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 26
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 27
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 28
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 29
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 30
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 31
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Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 33
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Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 35
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 36
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 37
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 38
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Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 40
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 41
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 42
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 43
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 44
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 45
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 46
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 47
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Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 50
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Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 55
Milling & Baking News - September 8, 2020 - 56
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