Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 26

Export and Trade Issues

China's large recent purchases of
US soybeans may not be enough
Continued from Page 1

to "unknown destinations," many of
which may be switched to China.
Confirmed US export sales of soybeans to China for delivery this marketing year already eclipsed those
in all of 2018-19 at 16,266,200 tonnes.
In 2018-19, when the trade war was
at its most bitter point and African
swine fever reduced China's need
for soybean imports to manufacture
meal, US soybean exports to China
totaled 13,369,900 tonnes, down
from 27,681,800 tonnes in 2017-18.
US soybean exports to China totaled

exports in the current marketing year
at 57.83 million. Brazil overtook the
United States as the largest soybean
supplier to China in 2013.
Currently, the United States is taking advantage of a window of opportunity for soybean sales to China.
That window may close once the Brazilian crop is harvested and is available for export.
The USDA's Foreign Agricultural
Service office in Beijing in a Sept. 1
report explained, "Due to concerns
about supply disruptions caused by
COVID-19, China imported record

US soybean exports to China
(in million tonnes)

36.1
29.9

27.7

13.4

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

Source: US Department of Agriculture

2018-19

16.3

2019-20

19.2*

2020-21

*as of Sept. 17, 2020

©JJ GOUIN - STOCK.ADOBE.COM

36,148,300 tonnes in 2016-17.
The USDA in its most recent World
Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates report forecast Chinese
soybean imports from all origins in
2020-21 at 99 million tonnes compared
with 98 million tonnes in 2019-20 and
82.54 million tonnes in 2018-19. Imports during the latter year reflected
reduced demand because of the ASF
outbreak.
While the recent increase in Chinese imports of US soybeans has been
impressive, Brazil is and will remain
China's largest supplier, barring a
crop failure in that country. China
typically turns to the United States for
soybeans once the Brazilian supply
runs low. Brazilian farmers currently
are planting their 2020-21 crop, and
the USDA has forecast it to be that nation's, and the world's, largest ever,
at 133 million tonnes. In comparison,
the 2020 US crop was forecast at 117.4
million tonnes.
Also important, Brazil, not the
United States, is the world's largest soybean exporter. The USDA has
forecast 2020-21 Brazilian soybean exports at 85 million tonnes, which compared with its forecast for US soybean
26 / October 6, 2020

Milling & Baking News

volumes of soybeans from Brazil in
May, June and July, landing a total of
30.6 million tonnes from Brazil in the
three-month period.
"With the transition from Brazilian
to the US harvest/shipping season,
Chinese concerns about reliable access
to US soybeans due to the bilateral
relationship are likely to sustain continuing imports, as importers seek to
stock up ahead of what they perceive
as a potential supply bottleneck," the
FAS said.
Chinese compliance with its trade
commitments under the phase one
agreement is measured by calendar
and not crop marketing years, and
there were doubts as to whether China would or could import what US
agricultural and other products and
services were spelled out in the accord for 2020.
Secretary of Agriculture Sonny
Perdue, addressing a recent farmer
forum in central Illinois, told producers, "I think honestly it is going
to be tough to meet those numbers.
This is just purely a guess; we may
reach it by the end of January before Brazil and South America come
back into the marketplace."

Mr. Perdue said while there were
sales on the books, he wanted to
see shipments, as China may agree to
a purchase only to cancel it later.
"'If they continue as they are, I am
hopeful that we could see the numbers that we had for this year by the
end of January," Mr. Perdue said. "It
does appear they are trying,  but it
remains to be seen if we will make
those numbers or not.'"
Bill Lapp, president, Advanced
Economic Solutions, Omaha, Neb.,
told Milling & Baking News, "China
is significantly short of the stated agricultural import goals of phase one,
and despite a recent increase in US ag
sales to China, it is unlikely China will
reach the goals."
Mr. Lapp pointed out China agreed
to import roughly $33 billion in US agricultural products in 2020, and through
July, China had imported $7.6 billion
worth, or 23% of the annual goal.
"China is also significantly short
of overall goals of phase one with
purchases of $48 billion (in US products and services) through July versus an annual goal of $143 billion,"
Mr. Lapp added.
"The United States has already sold
19 million tonnes of soybeans to China
for the 2020-21 crop year, more than 10
times year ago-levels and the largest
on record (at this point in the marketing year)," Mr. Lapp said. "US sales
are largely for shipment during the
September-January period. After that,
Brazil is likely to be the primary supplier to China."
Mr. Lapp pointed out China also has
purchased about 10 million tonnes of
US corn for delivery in 2020-21, the
marketing year that began Sept. 1.
"This could continue, and this is
the primary bullish risk for the corn
market," Mr. Lapp said. "As with soybeans, a large amount of the imported
corn is likely being used to rebuild inventories."
The USDA said China has purchased 1,473,300 tonnes of US wheat
for delivery in the 2020-21 marketing
year, which for wheat began June 1.
"It is unclear if China will purchase large quantities of wheat, either from the United States or other
sources," Mr. Lapp said. "Imports
during 2020-21 have increased, but
not nearly as dramatically as in soybeans or corn."
The USDA's current forecast for
2020-21 Chinese wheat imports from
all origins at 7 million tonnes compared
with 5.38 million tonnes in 2019-20 and
3.15 million tonnes in 2018-19. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com


http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020

Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 1
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 1
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 2
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 3
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 4
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 5
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 6
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 7
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 8
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 9
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 10
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 11
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 12
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 13
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 14
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 15
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 16
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 17
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 18
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 19
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 20
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 21
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 22
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 23
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 24
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Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 26
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 27
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 28
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 29
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 30
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 31
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 32
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 33
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 34
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 35
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 36
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 37
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 38
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 39
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 40
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 41
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 42
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 43
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 44
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 45
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 46
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 47
Milling & Baking News - October 6, 2020 - 48
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