Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 15

Business

Southwestern drought stokes fear
over hard winter crop outlook
drought by mid-October, the US Department of Agriculture said in its
weekly analysis of the US Drought
Monitor. The most severe rating, exceptional drought, affected relatively
small areas in eastern Colorado and
the Texas panhandle. Surrounding
those were massive areas characterized as extreme drought, a category
also applied to parts of the Nebraska
panhandle and a sliver of southwest
Oklahoma. The rest of eastern Colorado and a majority of Nebraska each
were in moderate or severe drought.
Beginning in mid-September, US
southern Plains growers witnessed
more than four weeks of mostly sunny
skies and infrequent rain sprinkles that
amounted to nothing more than spots
in the dust on the combine windshield.
That opened a longer string of workable fall harvesting and wheat seeding
days than any year in recent memory.
Even as dry weather allowed farmers to harvest corn and soybeans at a
rapid pace, the lack of any beneficial
precipitation was not far from the
minds of growers planning to seed
hard winter wheat for harvest in 2021.
But what of the adage "plant in dust
and the bins will bust"?
"When that phrase has come true, it's
because a crop's been able to tap into existing subsoil supplies in that moisture
bank account, which just doesn't exist
right now, unfortunately," Mr. Gilpin
said. "It's that depletion of subsoil moisture that's the growing concern for this
wheat crop and why it's going to take
more than just one rain event to get the
crop emerged and out of the ground."
Subsoil moisture in Kansas was
rated at 61% short to very short on
Oct. 11 by the US Department of Agriculture. For Nebraska, the figure was
64%. Colorado's subsoil moisture was
a whopping 86% short to very short.
Most of the 2021 hard winter wheat
crop already was in the ground by Oct.
11, the USDA said. Sowing was 74%
completed in Kansas (57% a year ago,
56% as the most recent five-year average) 69% in Oklahoma (66%, 62%), 55%
in Texas (55%, 54%), 94% in Colorado
(88%, 84%), 89% in Nebraska (93%,
90%), 88% in South Dakota (84%, 84%)
and 66% in Montana (57%, 75%).
The five states of the Southwest -
Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska
and Colorado - account for the majority of US hard red winter production
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

each year. In 2019, 683.1 million bus
were harvested in the Southwest, 80%
of the hard red winter wheat total (acreage and yields were lower in 2020).
Hearty wheat seeds typically remain
in good condition without deteriorating or rotting for a long time in dry
soils, eventually germinating when the
rain comes. However, seeds that get
just enough moisture to germinate but

©VORN - STOCK.ADOBE.COM

Continued from Page 1

streak mosaic and other diseases that
are eliminated or lessened with late
planting. So, it's a little scarier to plant
late, but it does provide some advantages to the crop overall."
Still, "the closer you plant the seeds
to rainfall is the optimum condition for
sure," Mr. Green said. "But a lot of agriculture is in the timing. Growers have
the time to do it now, so this is the time
to get it in the ground, and if we get rain,
everybody will breathe a sigh of relief."
There was nothing in forecasts late
last week to indicate the long-term dry

Kansas City July 2021 wheat futures
per bu

$5.75
$5.30
$4.85
$4.40
$3.95
$3.50
Oct.
2018

Dec.

Feb.
2019

April

June

Aug.

not to emerge may experience delayed
emergence, typically exemplified by
fewer fall tillers, or even plant death.
"It's drought-tolerant, but it's not
drought-resistant," Mr. Gilpin said.
"Good emergence is always the concern
going into the winter. You really want
that crop to be emerged and rooted down
and somewhat established so it can better weather winter conditions. Drier soils
create a crop more susceptible to a harsh
winter and potential winterkill."
Winter wheat emergence by Oct. 11
was 50% in Kansas (33% a year ago,
32% as the five-year average), 39% in
Oklahoma (45%, 35%), 33% in Texas
(36%, 30%), 56% in Colorado (59%,
55%), 60% in Nebraska (59%, 68%),
53% in South Dakota (61%, 54%) and
40% in Montana (22%, 46%).
An advantage to late seeding "is that
it slows down the fall growth a little
bit," said Dave Green, executive vice
president of the Wheat Quality Council. "When we plant early in the fall and
have good growing conditions, that's
when we have problems with wheat

Oct.

Dec.

Feb. April
2020

June

Aug.

Oct.

trend would soon subside. But some
market participants were heartened at
the prospect that extended fall dryness
would be one of several factors expected to boost winter wheat acreage.
"Some years when we've had a wet
fall harvest, a crop coming off late,
we've lost some double-crop wheat
acres," Mr. Gilpin said. "But this open
window really created an opportunity."
The rally in wheat futures was seen
as likely to prompt increased seeding
even as wheat competed with sorghum
for acres. Sorghum prices this year
have shot up due to export demand
as the crop forms the basis of China's
national drink, the alcoholic baijiu. The
potential for 2021 row crops also tipped
the scales to wheat, Mr. Gilpin said.
"Farmers have a sense that they
are setting up the crop in dry conditions, knowing that there's not going
to be that subsoil moisture for springplanted row crops to tap into," he said.
"If there's a year to go with more of a
drought-tolerant crop like wheat, this
might be it." MBN
Milling & Baking News

October 20, 2020 / 15


http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020

Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 1
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 1
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 2
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 3
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 4
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 5
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 6
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 7
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 8
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 9
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 10
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 11
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 12
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 13
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 14
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 15
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 16
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 17
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 18
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 19
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 20
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 21
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 22
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 23
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 24
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 25
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 26
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 27
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 28
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 29
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 30
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 31
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 32
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 33
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 34
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 35
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 36
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 37
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 38
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 39
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 40
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 41
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 42
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 43
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 44
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 45
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 46
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 47
Milling & Baking News - October 20, 2020 - 48
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